Advertising Notes - Where the Dems and Reps are Putting Their Money

[Sam Spade]

I want to put all of these notes together.

Where the various committees (NRCC, DCCC, DSCC, NRSC) are sometimes the best ways for us to notice where vulnerability lies in the absence of polls. 

Post all new relevant information here.

[Sam Spade]

NRCC expands TV ad buys...

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42669.html

Districts Noted
MA-10
MO-4
NM-1
PA-10*
WA-3*
WI-8

Noted in this article is:
1) NRCC recently began advertising in NC-7 and VA-9
2) NRCC will be polling 15 more CDs to find potential vulnerability, including MS-4
3) NRCC is becoming increasingly interested in NC-7 and NC-11
4) Sessions is going to campaign for Koster in WA-2 (don't see how that impacts any).

[Sam Spade]

Wasn't mentioned here, but I should note that a couple of days ago DSCC threw about a million dollars in ads as follows:

CO-Sen:  $335,000
IL-Sen:  $235,000
PA-Sen:  $470,000

Folks on this site haven't really been following this either, but this now makes close to $3 million that the DSCC has thrown at PA in the last six weeks.

[Sam Spade]

As noted earlier, DSCC is buying $400K in West Virginia.  More strangely, $165,000 in airtime has been bought for Delaware.

[Sam Spade]

NRSC threw another $100K in media at WV and $415K at CO.

Meanwhile, DSCC is cutting another ad in DE, costing $12.5K.

As for DCCC - we get these 22 new buys:

WI-7 (open, Obey): $92,000 in ads and $14,000 in mailers against Sean Duffy, R.
VA-11 (Connolly): $19,000 for mailers against Keith Fimian, R.
VA-2 (Nye): $120,000 for ads against Scott Rigell, R.
SC-5 (Spratt): $146,000 for ads against Mick Mulvaney, R.
PA-11 (Kanjorski): $104,000 for ads against Lou Barletta, R.
PA-3 (Dahlkemper): $39,000 for ads against George “Mike” Kelly, R.
OH-16 (Boccieri): $182,000 for ads against James Renacci, R.
OH-13 (Sutton): $85,000 for ads against Tom Ganley, R.
NY-24 (Arcuri): $15,000 for ads against Richard Hanna, R.
NC-8 (Kissell): $189,000 for ads against Harold Johnson, R.
MS-1 (Childers): $43,000 for ads against Alan Nunnelee, R.
MO-4 (Skelton): $69,000 for ads against Vicky Jo Hartzler, R.
MI-7 (Schauer): $67,000 for ads against Tim Walberg, R.
MI-1 (open, Stupak): $165,000 for ads against Dan Benishek, R.
MD-1 (Kratovil): $36,000 for ads against Andy Harris, R.
IL-14 (Foster): $62,000 for ads and $15,000 for mailers against Randy Hultgren, R.
IL-10 (open, Kirk): $78,000 for ads and $26,000 for mailers against Robert Dold, R.
IA-3 (Boswell): $83,000 in ads against Brad Zaun, R.
GA-2 (S. Bishop): $59,000 in ads against Michael Keown, R.
AZ-5 (Mitchell): $46,000 in ads against Dave Schweikert, R.
AR-1 (open, Snyder): $29,000 for ads against Rick Crawford, R.
WV-1 (open, Mollohan): $103,000 against David McKinley, R.
AL-2 (Bright): $176,000 against Martha Roby, R.

[Sam Spade]

Is there some way to browse these independent expenditures?

There's a site, I think, but I forget where.  CQ used to run a free one, but I don't think it's free anymore.

I pulled today's House buys from Washington Examiner.  GOP partisans to the core, but I see nothing to refute the information.

[Sam Spade]

The NRCC has canceled a $1.9 Million ad buy for Carly Fiorina. It was meant to be the week before the election according to the Huffington Post.

Quite frankly, if it were me - the money is better put elsewhere.  But I argued that 12 months ago...

[Sam Spade]

Important article imo....

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/122029-dems-face-hard-choices?page=2#comments

[Sam Spade]

Losing Edwards is not that big of a deal, imo.  It would actually make redistricting a bit easier, barring Ciro losing (which is a distinct possibility).

[Sam Spade]

DCCC has canceled everything but the last week of ads in AZ-08. No idea what to make of that; if Giffords is toast, why keep any ads at all?

DSCC adds another $1.2 million to Connecticut.

1.2 mil is more than a small chunk of change.  Is there something in the polling that I'm missing?  Or was his debate performance that bad?

[Sam Spade]

Latest DSCC spending

CO-SEN (Bennet): $700,000 for television ads against Ken Buck, R.
IL-SEN (open, Burris): $759,000 for television ads against Mark Kirk, R.
KY-SEN (open, Bunning): $269,000 for television ads and $56,000 for radio ads against Rand Paul, R.
MO-SEN (open, Bond): $335,000 for television ads against Roy Blunt, R.
PA-SEN (open, Specter): $721,000 for television ads against Pat Toomey, R.
WA-SEN (Murray): $389,000 for television ads against Dino Rossi, R.
WV-SEN: (open, Goodwin) $585,000 for television ads against John Raese, R.
DE-SEN (open, Kaufmann): $170,000 for television ads against Christine O’Donnell, R.

[Sam Spade]

Is that spending in addition to what they already are, or changes in the planned level of spending?

Latest campaign disclosures - this is money actually being spent in addition to any planned reservations in the future (most of which have not occurred yet).

[Sam Spade]

DSCC cancelled their ad buy in MO-Sen over the next two weeks.  Never understood why they spent $2.5 million there in the first place.

[Sam Spade]

I thought they had pretty much left FL-24 to begin with (unless I missed something).

[Sam Spade]

Another predictable call:  DCCC has pulled its ads from AR-2 for October 19-25, but still not for the last week (though I assume that's coming).

http://talkbusiness.net/article/DCCC-CANCELS-WEEK-OF-TV-IN-LR-MARKET/983/

[Sam Spade]

Just as an FYI in the House - this is where the political parties are spending, as of yesterday, according to the reports.  I'll try to keep up with any changes.

GOP Seats
No Spending/Stated Withdrawal (Likely Gone R) 11 Seats
AR-02*
IN-08* (10/8 - NRCC last spending) - DCCC stated withdrawal
KS-03*
LA-03*
NY-29*
FL-24 (10/8 - NRCC last spending) - DCCC stated withdrawal
OH-01 (10/12 - DCCC spent token 25K here) - DCCC stated withdrawal
PA-03 (10/8 - NRCC last spending) - DCCC stated withdrawal
TN-06*
TN-08* (10/7 - NRCC last spending) - DCCC stated withdrawal

NRCC Only (Meaning Lean R/Dem Triage or Lean D/Republican Attack) 14 Seats
CO-04
FL-08
IL-11
MN-01
NC-07
NH-01
NJ-03
NM-01
OH-06
PA-07*
PA-08
SD-AL
TX-17
VA-09

DCCC Only (Meaning D Protection or Lean R/Republican Weakness) 9 Seats
GA-02 (I believe NRCC had planned to spend here, don't see anything on the reports yet)
IA-03
NC-08
NY-23
OH-13 (I suspect this one will be gone after last week's revelations)
OH-15 (the media spending here was 15K, not exactly a major buy)
PA-12
TX-23
VA-11

NRCC/DCCC Both (Battlegrounds) 37 Seats
AL-02
AR-01*
AZ-01
AZ-05
CA-11
CO-03
FL-02 (note no DCCC spending in the last week, NRCC last spending was 10/8)
GA-08 (note no DCCC spending in the last week, NRCC last spending was 10/8)
IL-14
IL-17
IN-02
IN-09
KY-06
MA-10*
MD-01
MI-01*
MI-07
MO-04
MS-01
ND-AL
NH-02*
NM-02
NV-03
NY-20
NY-24
OH-16
OH-18
OR-05
PA-10
PA-11
SC-05
VA-02
VA-05
WA-03*
WI-07*
WI-08
WV-01

DEM Seats
No Spending/Stated Withdrawal (Likely Gone D) 2 Seats
DE-AL*
LA-02

DCCC Only (Meaning Lean D or Lean R/Democratic Attack) 2 Seats
FL-25
HI-01

DCCC/NRCC Both (Battlegrounds 1 Seat
IL-10*

[Sam Spade]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43537.html

Good article here of broad interest.  One note buried in the article - NRCC is going to start advertising in TN-4 against Lincoln Davis this week.

[Sam Spade]

Big Notes on Senate adbuys (rounding numbers for simplicity):

DSCC
CO-SEN:  860K
CT-SEN:  580K
DE-SEN:  170K
IL-SEN:  870K
KY-SEN:  305K
MO-SEN:  140K
WA-SEN:  730K
WV-SEN:  780K
PA-SEN:  730K

NRCC
KY-SEN:  215K
PA-SEN:  630K
WA-SEN:  1.04 Million

[Sam Spade]

10/14 - House Adbuys

NRCC
AR-01 - $18K
OR-05 - $26K
PA-11 - $35K (includes survey)
SD-AL - $17K

More later today, probably...

[Sam Spade]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43606.html

Basically, DCCC is withdrawing its ad reservations for Kagen (WI-08).

[Sam Spade]

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/nrsc_upping_ant.php

NRSC says it will spend $3.4 million in PA before election day from its original $1.7 million.

Also buried in the article is that the NRSC is planning on upping its spending to $3 million in CA, something I was not aware of (or of the original amount planned).

[Sam Spade]

My suspicion for the past couple of weeks is that Kagen is one of the 20 Dem dead duck seats that the GOP has mentioned, and which I suspect exist (in numbers somewhere close to that).

[Sam Spade]

10/14 - House Adbuys

NRCC
AR-01 - $18K
OR-05 - $26K
PA-11 - $35K (includes survey)
SD-AL - $17K

More later today, probably...

DCCC
AR-01 = $300K
GA-02 - $130K
HI-01 - $12K (just production of a new ad)
MI-07 - $11K (just production of a new ad)
MS-01 - $215K
NM-02 - $170K
NC-07 - $75K (first ad buy I've seen for DCCC here, NRCC has been here a while)
NC-08 - $65K
OH-13 - $65K (not particularly big buy - thought he gave up)
OH-16 - $285K
OH-18 - $370K
PA-03 - $45K (thought they left here, not particularly big buy anyways)
SC-05 - $250K

[Sam Spade]

Supposedly, the GOP has made (but is not yet confirming) a $500,000 commitment to MA-10. This is from the Boston Phoenix which ... well, it's not exactly the best source of news for this stuff. But it's something.

Both parties have been spending a lot there, so I'm not surprised.

[Sam Spade]

I'm not sure Halvorson was "basically safe up until a month ago," but it shouldn't be a surprise that the Democrats most expecting a hard, brutal re-election race are the best prepared and most likely to win one.

Not from the polls I saw - even after primary day there were serious signs of weakness which just kept mushrooming...