TX-23: Republican internal poll shows Republican leading (surprising, I know)

[Sam Spade]

This CD is too hyper-partisan for either the R or D to get much below 45%.

That being said, if Rasmussen is right and Obama's approval in Texas is 34%, it would suggest that the border regions in this CD do not approve of Obama.  If that translates into non-votes for Ciro, he will be in big trouble.

[Sam Spade]

Canseco has a big problem with past unpaid taxes, which keeps him from being Generic R.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/politics/candidatehas_faced715000in_liens_97997849.html

That's probably balanced out by his name in this area of Texas. 

Anyway, the available swing portion of this CD is probably not greater than 10% for any candidate.  Turnout may be more important than swinging voters, actually, now that I think about it.

[Sam Spade]

Canseco has a big problem with past unpaid taxes, which keeps him from being Generic R.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/politics/candidatehas_faced715000in_liens_97997849.html

That's probably balanced out by his name in this area of Texas. 

Anyway, the available swing portion of this CD is probably not greater than 10% for any candidate.  Turnout may be more important than swinging voters, actually, now that I think about it.

Yes, the Dems will be hurt more by low Hispanic turnout than by vote switching, but there will be some vote switching.

Be forewarned though - Ciro is always very good at turning out his voters in the San Antonio barrios even if the numbers and his lack of money indicate otherwise.  This does not mean, of course, spectacular turnout, but it means the Hispanic turnout will likely be slightly higher than statewide average, specifically in the Bexar County part of this CD only.