2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Sam Spade]

You forgot about the Inglis-Gowdy runoff... 

[Sam Spade]

I doubt D'Annuzio even stands a chance of getting close.  Though I've been wrong before.

[Sam Spade]

Duncan is the conservative bloggers favorite, as far as I can tell (and probably therefore the establishment favorite).  He's also a State Rep.

Cash is more out of left field - no one expected him to get here in the first place.  He's a businessman and pro-life pastor - pretty hardcore in the movement from what his site says.

[Sam Spade]

Most of these races are already over with, so I'll just keep wasting my time here for a while.

[Sam Spade]

OTOH, boy was Cal Cunningham a real fail candidate.

[Sam Spade]

Really don't see how Cash wins in SC-03.  Duncan's base of Laurens hasn't shown up yet in the numbers.

EDIT:  That doesn't mean it won't be close.  Probably within 5 points.

[Sam Spade]

All of the SC races are pretty much over except for the SC-3 race.  

[Sam Spade]

Most of these races are already over with, so I'll just keep wasting my time here for a while.

Yeah, that's why I've already jumped to my extrapolations.  I got burned doing that for the Lincoln/Halter thread too soon, but the only surprise of the night I see at this point being a mild upset of Bridgewater in Utah by the conservative grassroots...no real impact there outside of whether the GOP gets a sewage pipe for a Senator or someone eloquent who votes the exact same.

The Lincoln/Halter extrapolation was pretty obvious once we started to get a number of full counties in.  We'll see about later...

[Sam Spade]

OTOH, boy was Cal Cunningham a real fail candidate.

Well, he was always a flop when the DSSC ----***SCREWED***--- him over, long before Marshall entered, by refusing to get behind him out of the slim hope that Etheridge and Shuler would reverse their previous statements that they wouldn't enter the race.  Marshall got into the race when there was a complete vacuum (besides Ken Lewis), and only then did the DSSC, very late in the game, decide, "Hey, let's get behind this young, veteran and elevate his profile, even if he doesn't win, he'll be a better candidate!"  

Of course, by then, it was long too late and Marshall has better connections statewide, having run so many times for statewide and for higher office before, and better name recognition.

Cal's only hope was getting into the race early and having the field cleared for him.  So this is, in my opinion, completely on the DSSC's shoulders for not realizing the obvious early enough.

Isn't the DSCC lucky Etheridge didn't get in now? 

Though I'm not sure Marshall is much better.

Still, as I have long said, when you lose a primary, except on rare occasions, you suck more than the candidate who won.

[Sam Spade]

I guess that the epicenter for racial voting among whites may have shifted northwards towards places like West Virginia, PA-12, and Arkansas, which perhaps should be taken into account for any meta-analysis?  PA-12 was the only Kerry-McCain district...

What do you guys think?  

Well, remember that places like SC-01 tend to be wealthier suburban whites who have educations (insert Al "class" quote here).

[Sam Spade]

McCormick came in and spiced up Duncan's lead to 4,000 votes. It's over for the ice cream man.

Edit: Everything in for SC-03, and Duncan wins by 2,200 votes.

Really don't see how Cash wins in SC-03.  Duncan's base of Laurens hasn't shown up yet in the numbers.

EDIT:  That doesn't mean it won't be close.  Probably within 5 points.

Sometimes extrapolations work quite easily.  I'm now back from dinner and want to see what happens in the Utah...

[Sam Spade]

Here's the tally in the Berkeley County Supervisor race with all precincts reporting.

Henry Brown (REP)   
   44.26%   7,062
Dan Davis (REP)   
   55.74%   8,893

Henry Brown generally underperformed in his races for Congress, so its not terribly surprising he should underperform in other races too.

Noticed the Gowdy-Inglis numbers.  Now that's what I call a massacre. 

[Sam Spade]

Please count quickly Utah...

[Sam Spade]

Utah is far too close to even attempt to call right now.  Interesting how the major counties are all pretty split evenly as well as the actual vote is.

[Sam Spade]

This might be a long night.

Pretty much this. I've personally switched my support to Lee(although Bridgewater has the cooler last name ), so the fact that he's winning thus far makes me happy, but we'll see. It'll be interesting, seeing just how split Utah's Republicans are between establishment and Tea Party.

True, but the two big counties that Bridgewater is carrying, Davis and Weber, and disproportionately in, and substantially disproportionately in. The lead in Salt Lake County is see sawing, but basically skin tight.  It may well be that Lee wins because of big margins in Dixie.

Your analysis looks about right to me.

[Sam Spade]

A bit more of Dixie came in, and Davis has shot its wad, and Lee has a 2,000 vote lead now. He is going to win, unless Bridgewater has pockets of strength in Salt Lake which have not come in yet, which I guess is possible, if Bridgewater is winning the wealthier precincts (I have no idea if he is), of which Salt Lake has a considerable number, and those substantially disproportionately remain uncounted. Bridgewater is going to need to win Salt Lake County by a few thousand votes to win, assuming Utah County stays even, and I assume that it will, since that county is pretty homogenious.

I agree.  I think it is pretty much over unless Bridgewater wins Salt Lake by a few thousand, at minimum.

You get your lawyer. 

[Sam Spade]

Well a bunch more precincts in Utah County just came in, and they were not even. Lee carried them by maybe 55-45. This race is now very close to a call. Salt Lake counted a few more precincts, and Bridgewater again carried them, but again very narrowly. Not enough.

Agreed.  I'm calling it a night.

[Sam Spade]

Keown's primary performance = impressive.  Austin Scott = not so much (just barely getting 50% now).  Scott, of course, has a much more favorable CD to run in, to put it mildly.

[Sam Spade]

Meanwhile, looks like Scott is going to escape the runoff and Johnson keeps closing in on Deal (and will likely continue to, given what's out - the 47 Chatham precincts come to mind at minimum), but it's too little too late barring something shocking.

[Sam Spade]

It is starting to look like the south might have two Republican women candidate for Governor.

Handel has a much longer way to go in her run-off than Haley did

Can't believe the Ox is in 4th

Runoffs really aren't about "how far you have to go", they're more about what groups make up the undecideds and who actually shows up.

I expect to see some sort of rural/urban divide, but I've been wrong before.

[Sam Spade]

How much of Deal's win can and/or should be credited to Newt's endorsement [even appearing in TV ads if I recall correctly] at the end? 

How well did Deal run in Newt's old CD?  Or Newt's newer CD?  

With regards to his newer CD, Handel beat everyone handily (no pun intended) in the Atlanta area, but that was to be expected.  Maybe he performed better than otherwise due to the endorsement.

[Sam Spade]

How much of Deal's win can and/or should be credited to Newt's endorsement [even appearing in TV ads if I recall correctly] at the end?  

How well did Deal run in Newt's old CD?  Or Newt's newer CD?  

I'm not sure.  I haven't been following this race [why would I?], but I do follow D.C. politics, and thus Newt's endorsement broke the threshold to enter into my consciousness, and, I imagine, tons of D.C. reporter type peoples' minds.

The only things I ever remember reading about Nathan Deal on, say, Politico's 2010 stuff:
1) He resigned early, which helped the Democratic majority threshold in the House
2) Ethics troubles
3) Newt endorsement


But to be fair, Newt has a national persona & certainly ran ads and had fans throughout the media market(s) affecting his district.

Palin certainly played a role in Handel's surge, so I imagine that Newt will be at least modestly credited with Deal's odd late surge?  


It seems that Deal based a huge component of his campaign on opposing illegal immigration, which makes Brewer's odd endorsement of Handel even more funky.  Brewer's endorsement being funky, of course, because she hasn't even been elected to her first term yet as governor, but she's making endorsements in Georgia's race [although, admittedly, they were both Secretary of States and probably kind of knew each other].  Probably explains why Brewer's primary challengers are dropping like flies.  How many other governors running for their first full-term make endorsements in primaries on the other side of the country?

Fwiw, I turn off the TV every time I see Newt coming on.  But then again, I do that for a lot of people, which is the reason why I don't watch many news programs any more.

[Sam Spade]

Oklahoma up next, OP updated. Probably not a very exciting night.

It depends on who you are.  I think it will be a very exciting night.  Of course, I'm from Oklahoma City, as well.

You're from Oklahoma City?  Really, I would have never known...

[Sam Spade]

Dem primary is far from over looking at what's out.

[Sam Spade]

Best guess is Askins wins by a couple of thousand, but it really depends on what parts of Tulsa and Oklahoma City are out and how many votes actually exist.