Texas is getting 4 seats in reapportionment

[Sam Spade]

Why would Nevada be drawn for a democrat though, even if Titus loses?  They could gerrymander it into two modest republican districts and one weak/lean republican/tossup district, especially if Sandoval is elected.

The issue is population distribution. You're stuck with one very large district and three Clark County districts (one of which will extend outside the county for a change), and the Democratic vote within Clark isn't anything as concentrated as in many other counties with both city and suburbia in them, due to the nature of sizable chunks of Vegas suburbia (ie pisspoor and multiracial).

There isn't much wiggleroom left to draw Texas even more White-Democrat-unfriendly than it already is. There might be another attempt to punish Austin and another attempt to unseat Edwards. The seat gains will have to be where the population gains are.

Only two white Dems I know of.  Not much of a target. 

The population growth in Texas translates to CDs in these areas:

1) SE Houston suburbs
2) DFW suburbs (north, I believe)
3) Suburbs in-between Austin and San Antonio
4) Rio Grande Valley

With 3 seats earlier, the map was a little tougher to draw for Republicans, but now I would expect a 3-1 GOP split on the new seats if they control the redistricting process.

As for the additional seats, I suspect that Republicans would (if in control):
1) Shore up the McCaul/Sessions/Smith districts by removing minorities (in the case of Sessions) or maybe redesign of the other two.
2) Use the new border CD to either increase Rodriguez/Doggett vulnerability (unknown which angle to take - if I was a Republican, I'd go after Doggett by removing Republican suburbs from Rodriguez and centering the Rodriguez CD (with the San Antonio Hispanic areas included) further South (pushing Cuellar to the west).  At least that's my guess, without looking at the map.
3) Take out Edwards again (though the only thing you can do to him is try and get him areas outside his home base).  There are questions, though, as to whether Edwards is going to be able to survive this time around - the Republicans have their first non-loon, moneyed, non-joke candidate to run against him in ages (if ever), provided he gets through the primary.

[Sam Spade]

Isn't Gene Green still there? That makes three White Democrats. Mind you, White Democrats aren't his electoral or even primary base as is (however that may have been when first elected and the district wasn't as overwhelmingly Mexican as it is now), so...

Yes, you're right.  I don't think of him as white, of course (he was my rep for many years). 

Whites weren't really his base when he was first elected either, though I'm sure they voted for him (there are more Mexicans there now than there were in the mid-1990s but it's not as big of a change as you might think).

He won that first time (and the second time too) because he was running against a complete crook.

[Sam Spade]

No way that Republicans get all of the new seats in Texas.  The Obama Justice Department will likely force the drawing of a Hispanic majority district in the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex(where there are currently none) and also in the Houston area(where Hispanics are heavily underrepresented.

More Hispanics in Houston are presently located percentage-wise (not total numbers) in the black-gerrymandered districts (9, 18), not in the white ones (2, 7, 10, 14, 22).  Actually, I don't think either the black-gerrymandered districts have more blacks than Hispanics anymore. 

I suppose you could create two black districts and two Hispanic districts in Houston, and I suspect  Census tricks could be used to make more Hispanics "appear", but you'd have to make the other white CDs safer to do so or risk putting whites with low-turnout Hispanics.  I would suppose it can be done.

I'd have to look at the numbers, but you could create a Hispanic CD in Dallas and I think there's still enough minority population to protect Bernice Johnson (her CD I think has more Hispanics than blacks too now).  That would undoubtedly make the white CDs safer too.

I could see Republicans making this deal to shore up certain suburban CDs (Culberson, Sessions, Johnson, Smith, McCaul come to mind) that could be problematic later on in exchange for tackling Doggett and Edwards (if the latter survives).

Anyway, I basically agree with you and suspect the GOP gains 2 if they control the redistricting (with Doggett and Edwards as future (or in the case of Edwards, present) question marks).  Of course, requiring more Hispanic CDs in Houston or Dallas may make it easier to get rid of Doggett, you know, because Austin can be played with.

[Sam Spade]

No way that Republicans get all of the new seats in Texas.  The Obama Justice Department will likely force the drawing of a Hispanic majority district in the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex(where there are currently none) and also in the Houston area(where Hispanics are heavily underrepresented.

More Hispanics in Houston are presently located percentage-wise (not total numbers) in the black-gerrymandered districts (9, 18), not in the white ones (2, 7, 10, 14, 22).  Actually, I don't think either the black-gerrymandered districts have more blacks than Hispanics anymore. 

I suppose you could create two black districts and two Hispanic districts in Houston, and I suspect  Census tricks could be used to make more Hispanics "appear", but you'd have to make the other white CDs safer to do so or risk putting whites with low-turnout Hispanics.  I would suppose it can be done.

I'd have to look at the numbers, but you could create a Hispanic CD in Dallas and I think there's still enough minority population to protect Bernice Johnson (her CD I think has more Hispanics than blacks too now).  That would undoubtedly make the white CDs safer too.

I could see Republicans making this deal to shore up certain suburban CDs (Culberson, Sessions, Johnson, Smith, McCaul come to mind) that could be problematic later on in exchange for tackling Doggett and Edwards (if the latter survives).

Anyway, I basically agree with you and suspect the GOP gains 2 if they control the redistricting (with Doggett and Edwards as future (or in the case of Edwards, present) question marks).  Of course, requiring more Hispanic CDs in Houston or Dallas may make it easier to get rid of Doggett, you know, because Austin can be played with.

I dont think Republicans would want to mess any further with Doggett's district.  They should simply conceed him all of Travis county.  Splitting up that county could cause them serious problems in a bad year in the future. 

What could be done in Houston would be to create a district that peels Hispanics from TX-09, TX-22, and TX-18 and combines them with some whites, blacks, and Asians to create another Hispanic seat there. 

What the Obama Justice Department will likely do is simply say that there has to be two new Hispanic majority seats created in the state and reject any map that doesnt do that. 

In other words, you're suggesting (by my maths) that Republicans create 23 "safe" Republican seats and 13 "safe" Democratic seats.  Correct me if I'm wrong (might be 22-14).

[Sam Spade]

I'm following you (somewhat - without a real map, very difficult).

Republicans may compromise this way, except I would expect them to try and combine Ciro's Hispanics with the TX-35 (now TX-21) Hispanics as much as possible and push the hardcore Republican areas in that CD somewhere else.

Also, I think you meant to say TX-21, not TX-19, as the latter is nowhere near San Antonio.  There aren't that many Hispanics in TX-21 is the reason why I bring this up.

I also suspect this year will be Edwards toughest challenge ever, as mentioned in an earlier thread - he has an actual non-joke, non-kook, moneyed opponent.  Still, I expect that if Republicans were to go as you laid out, they would do anything to get rid of Edwards (as they would have some freedom to start playing with white Dallas suburbs).