Matthew Dowd says Bush up by 4 nationally

[Sam Spade]

Matthew Dowd is about as objective of a source as James Carville.

However, in the past (2000, for example) he has also been very conservative in his estimates and therefore gains a little more respect from me than Carville does.

[Sam Spade]

Your intuition and assumptions are close to what mine are having watched the campaign advisors during the Sunday morning shows and other programming as well.

Keep in mind, I don't think Dowd's assumption as to where this race is right now is unreasonable. 

However, it receives as much confidence in me as Tad Devine's "public" account of the race also.