Sounds about right to me. I also see Republicans picking up the open LA-03 seat. If things get bad enough for Democrats, I could see Nye(VA-02), Grayson(FL-08), and maybe some other going Republican, although they dont have top tier challengers there. I actually think Kissell is OK in NC-08. Democrats did well in that area last night, picking up seats on Charlotte City Council and winning the Mayor's office for the first time since the 80's.
As much as people talk about Grayson's verbal pyrotechnics putting himself in danger of reelection, the fact is major potential GOP candidates have taken themselves out of the race since his national notoriety has grown. The FL Republicans are last reported to be shopping two teabagger candidates from outside the district, including one from Coral Gables a few hundred miles to the south.
But hey, running a carpetteabagger almost worked in NY-23, right?
The thing is with Grayson's antics - you've got to consider that this CD is pretty much in the political center of things.
You know that one day those moderate voters, especially in this area of the world, will tire of this crap and just get rid of him without asking questions. Obviously, it'll occur if there's a wave or a good candidate runs, but it may well occur without both of them.
The trick is figuring out when their tolerance ends - all in all, he's skating on thin ice, but it'll break at some point. May not be 2010, of course.
