Strategic Vision Polls from Ohio, Iowa, Penn, "Cheesehead Land", Jersey

[Sam Spade]

The numbers seem a point or two Rep-friendly, but considering that ARG leans about 3 points Dem-friendly, it's not too ridiculous at all.

I tend to agree with Vorlon as to gut impressions on Ohio.  

I also remember how bad the Bush GOTV effort was in Ohio four years ago.  It absolutely collapsed in SE Ohio and made a much tighter race than it should have been there.

Hopefully, we'll see some more polls out of Ohio soon.  A Mason-Dixon would be nice.

[Sam Spade]

Well, I looked at that article Vorlon posted yesterday about 14,000+ ads being run in Toledo, OH and this morning I went and consulted some books on voting tendencies of Toledo.  

What's left out of the article is that Toledo proper was won by Gore in 2000 by roughly about 10%.  The rural areas around there tend to be heavily Republican, but very small in population.  

I can understand Bush running ads there to strengthen the base in these rural areas (though that much advertising wouldn't make any sense), but it doesn't make much sense for Kerry to run ads there, especially if he senses there is a problem with voters in the area.

The fact that Toledo, as opposed to Columbus, is at the center and heart of Ohio advertising wars gives me further proof that Bush is probably up there by a certain amount, probably around Vorlon's level.

[Sam Spade]

Zogby nailed Florida??

From November 1, 2000:

A year ago, the fourth largest state was considered safe for the Republicans, but Gore has apparently managed to close the gap. An MSNBC-Zogby Florida Poll released Tuesday showed Gore with a 51-40 percent advantage. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader got 4 percent and 4 percent were undecided.

http://www.evote.com/index.asp?Page=/news_section/2000-11/11012000Florida.asp

Troll.