If Romney was elected in 2012, what would a re-election map have looked like?

[hurricanehink]

A lot of it comes down to how Romney wins in 2012. Let's assume a 4-5 point swing, which would flip Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. Bill Nelson likely still wins in Florida, given that he outpaced Obama by 13 points. Ohio, Brown won by 5.6 points OTL, so I think he barely hangs on. Could be a similar story in Virginia, where Kaine won by 5.9 points OTL over George Allen. Elsewhere, Warren still picks up MA, King still wins as Indy in Maine.

Assuming this same swing toward Romney, the first flip from OTL is North Dakota, where Rick Berg defeats Heidi Heitkamp. In Montana, Jon Tester already beat Denny Rehberg by 4 points despite Obama losing the state by 14 points, so I think Tester still holds on. Similar logic for Indiana - Romney already won Indiana in our timeline by 300,000 votes, a 10-point victory. Even with Romney's victory, I think Donnelly still wins due to Mourdock's rape comments.

Let's say 2012 ends with the GOP controlling the House and the Dems controlling the Senate 52-48. Romney will be between a Tea Party-controlled House, wanting to end Obamacare, along with a Dem-controlled Senate. With government inaction (and possibly a shutdown or two), the Dems do fairly well in 2014.

Mark Begich in Alaska, Mark Udall in Colorado, Tom Harkin in Iowa, Max Baucus in Montana, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, and Jay Rockefeller in West Virginia all run and win again. I expect Tom Cotton to still win in Arkansas. I suspect former South Dakota governor Mike Rounds to run and win against Tim Johnson. Independent Greg Orman defeats Pat Roberts in Kansas, and caucuses with the Democratic majority. Mike Michaud defeats Susan Collins to become the first openly gay senator, joining Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin in the congressional LGBT caucus. I'm not so sure about Georgia. Let's say that Michelle Nunn makes it close in Georgia and loses narrowly, but helps the state's blue transformation accelerate. So 2014 ends with the Dems still at 52-48, but the GOP still controls the house due to gerrymandering.

Let's say that by this point, Romney is able to work with the moderate blue dog dems as well as the moderate members of the GOP, and he is able to start getting legislation passed.

In 2016, let's say Romney faces Sanders, with middling approval ratings. He runs against the extremists in both parties to find a common ground, which resonates among voters.