Let’s not forget the 47% of GOP voters who are anti-vax, and who might not be around by the midterms. I hate to be morbid, but Covid is still definitely a factor.
Covid mortality is not that high, even among the unvaccinated. At most this will shift votes on the order of a hundred thousand across the entire country, which wouldn’t be likely to have an impact on any but the absolute closest races.
I seem to recall an Atlas thread about shifting 100,000 votes across the country… that could’ve been huge in 2020!