2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[Mr. Illini]

Thread to discuss the 2023 local elections in Chicago.

Piece of news from today: Alderman Tom Tunney (44th-Lakeview) is retiring after 20 years of service

https://twitter.com/BlockClubCHI/status/1564611624694063114?s=20&t=LII61cBqk...

[Mr. Illini]

Rumors in Chicago that Tunney is considering challenging Lightfoot. Would be odd as he is her Vice Mayor, but it is Chicago after all.

https://twitter.com/royalpratt/status/1564625756176744453?s=20&t=oD_6c3D4Ro2...

[Mr. Illini]

Is there an impeachment process for the mayor?

https://twitter.com/HeatherCherone/status/1613310494558806017?s=20&t=GMuCf9v...

Inexcusable. She will do anything to win.

[Mr. Illini]

So it’s looking like it’ll be Garcia/Johnson in the runoff?

More likely Lightfoot vs Garcia or Johnson.

[Mr. Illini]

I will be interested in seeing how Lightfoot's voter coalition shifts compared to 2019. Her strongest areas of support in the first round last time were some of the most heavily progressive wards whose voters I'd expect to be primed to go for Johnson or Garcia. My guess is she will put up a comparatively stronger performance in the black-majority wards and maybe places like River North/Streeterville, where there are more upscale, non-progressive whites (though Vallas may also have a strong showing here).

My impression is that the lakefront black wards (basically where Preckwinkle did best last time ironically) will be her best areas of the city.  I think she is a terrible fit for downtown/riv north but the fact that outside of Vallas there is no “moderate” or businessy Democrat means she will get 20% or so there perhaps (Im not counting Wilson as he is seen as a joke outside the black community).

My sense even before this poll was that Chuy is dropping rapidly as his campaign is awful.  At this point its a genuine 3 way tossup for the runoff between Chuy/Vallas/Johnson.

I will say though that Johnson running as the teachers union candidate is not as helpful as some here have implied.  The CTU is unpopular and that may be enough for him to scrape by with 20% or so into a runoff but I think he has a low ceiling.  The teachers union endorsements did Preckwinkle no good in 2019.

Agree with all. Vallas is basically the Bill Daley of this cycle. He’ll win downtown and the bungalow areas on the outskirts.

Will be interesting to see who performs best on the north side. Lightfoot probably, I guess.

I don’t think Johnson wins much of anywhere.

[Mr. Illini]

I will be interested in seeing how Lightfoot's voter coalition shifts compared to 2019. Her strongest areas of support in the first round last time were some of the most heavily progressive wards whose voters I'd expect to be primed to go for Johnson or Garcia. My guess is she will put up a comparatively stronger performance in the black-majority wards and maybe places like River North/Streeterville, where there are more upscale, non-progressive whites (though Vallas may also have a strong showing here).

My impression is that the lakefront black wards (basically where Preckwinkle did best last time ironically) will be her best areas of the city.  I think she is a terrible fit for downtown/riv north but the fact that outside of Vallas there is no “moderate” or businessy Democrat means she will get 20% or so there perhaps (Im not counting Wilson as he is seen as a joke outside the black community).

My sense even before this poll was that Chuy is dropping rapidly as his campaign is awful.  At this point its a genuine 3 way tossup for the runoff between Chuy/Vallas/Johnson.

I will say though that Johnson running as the teachers union candidate is not as helpful as some here have implied.  The CTU is unpopular and that may be enough for him to scrape by with 20% or so into a runoff but I think he has a low ceiling.  The teachers union endorsements did Preckwinkle no good in 2019.

Agree with all. Vallas is basically the Bill Daley of this cycle. He’ll win downtown and the bungalow areas on the outskirts.

Will be interesting to see who performs best on the north side. Lightfoot probably, I guess.

I don’t think Johnson wins much of anywhere.

Respectfully, I really just don't see where Lightfoot gets any impressive support. Who does she appeal to at this point? If her best support is 18% from black voters, I don't see where she is going to do consistently solid anywhere on the map.

I think there’s a decent chance she does well among white liberals on the north side. No one likes her, but who else are they going for? Vallas is probably too conservative. Maybe Chuy, though he might be too liberal, and he’s focused his efforts in Latino wards.

I don’t know. I live on the north side and I don’t think people here like Lightfoot, but I think there’s a decent chance they come home to her without an intriguing alternative.

Combined with inner ring majority Black wards, it would be enough to get her to a runoff. And then against Chuy she easily picks up Vallas and Wilson voters.

Very similar path/coalition that Rahm and Daley had. Don’t count her out.

[Mr. Illini]

Why was Lightfoot a fail as Mayor?  Just curious. I actually voted for the legendary Mayor Daily once. He made the trains run on time - sort of. The Pubs back then, as I guess now, were quite a the pathetic lot in both Illinois and Chicago.  My precinct voted 91-9 for McGovern. I voted for Nixon of course, knowing he was probably a crook. I turned the machine lever wearing a Nixon button. That was fun.

She is extremely confrontational and comes off as arrogant. This really helped her in 2019 because she was unknown and was hitting at establishment figures that people were sick of.

It has made it really difficult for her to govern, however. Especially as it’s been a rough few years with Covid and rising crime, the confrontational attitude hasn’t helped.

It’s also making it difficult for her to run for re-election. She is physically incapable of inspiring people. All she knows is how to fight. It’s not a way to run a re-election campaign.

Interesting parallels to Trump, I realize as I am typing it out.

[Mr. Illini]

How likely is Lightfoot to lose her job? Haven't been paying a lot of attention here, but seems she's headed for defeat due to a controversial performance?

I’d put it at 50/50 at this point

[Mr. Illini]

Vallas recieved money from one of the former cops involved in the 2014 police killing of Laquan McDonald, which led to Rahm Emanuel having a lackluster second term...

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/paul-vallas-received-campaign-contribution-from-ex-officer-in-laquan-mcdonald-scandal/3062993/

Whoever wins, Chicago will be mired in crime and problems. The Chicago Bears left the city today, moving to Arlington Heights, a suburb.

Shows that owners don't care for the community, the Packers don't do that, they are a nonprofit, public owned corporation.

If Lightfoot wins reelection, a lot of Chicago cops will walk off the force.

What the national media has done to our city’s reputation is a tragedy.

[Mr. Illini]

Vallas recieved money from one of the former cops involved in the 2014 police killing of Laquan McDonald, which led to Rahm Emanuel having a lackluster second term...

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/paul-vallas-received-campaign-contribution-from-ex-officer-in-laquan-mcdonald-scandal/3062993/

Whoever wins, Chicago will be mired in crime and problems. The Chicago Bears left the city today, moving to Arlington Heights, a suburb.

Shows that owners don't care for the community, the Packers don't do that, they are a nonprofit, public owned corporation.

If Lightfoot wins reelection, a lot of Chicago cops will walk off the force.

What the national media has done to our city’s reputation is a tragedy.

Lmao.  The national media?.  Try Kim Foxx, Tim Evans, with an assist from Preckwinkle and Lightfoot.  The chickens have come home to roost.  Keep voting in the same hacks who have created the revolving door at 26th & California in the name of "equity" and see how much worse it gets.  The sky rocketing amount of shootings, assaults, robberies, and car jackings since 2020 aren't a media creation.

I assume you’re voting for Paul Vallas, who isn’t one of the Same Hacks? Wait, he’s been in Chicago politics for 30 years.

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/byaliceyin/status/1626998589841985541?s=20

A really gross statement all around. Hopefully she doesn’t come close to another term.

[Mr. Illini]

Honestly, I was originally pulling for Chuy but after he endorsed Rossana Rodriguez's very questionable opponent I'm hoping Brandon Johnson can pull something off, no matter how unlikely it seems from what I know of the race's current dynamics. Just don't let it be Vallas or Lightfoot.

90+% chance it will be one of them at this point IMO

[Mr. Illini]

Honestly, I was originally pulling for Chuy but after he endorsed Rossana Rodriguez's very questionable opponent I'm hoping Brandon Johnson can pull something off, no matter how unlikely it seems from what I know of the race's current dynamics. Just don't let it be Vallas or Lightfoot.

90+% chance it will be one of them at this point IMO

Who are you holding out hope for? Chuy? Johnson?

I’m probably going to vote for Chuy. I’m pretty uninspired by the field, though. Interested to see which two we end up with and then decide between them.

Brandon Johnson is a hard no from me. Take a look at his tax plan. It’s kooky.

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/dmihalopoulos/status/1629655002292600833?s=20

I got it too. Preckwinkle hasn’t endorsed anyone. Would be very interested in what their angle is. Preckwinkle is a strong CTU ally - maybe assuming Lightfoot will be in and trying to push Johnson into the runoff at Vallas’ expense?

[Mr. Illini]

Has a incumbent mayor ever failed to make the runoff would Lightfoot be the first?

Chicago hasn’t had a runoff system for very long. Prior to the runoff system, Jane Byrne lost the Democratic primary to Harold Washington in 1983.

[Mr. Illini]

Lettuce pray that O’Shea loses in the 19th Ward.  The good people of Mount Greenwood are not happy with him.

And on the Northside, Lightfoot’s twink Knudsen needs to go down.

Why? O'Shea is a moderate Democrat....if he is not good enough for them, then they are truly far right people...

Sometimes it’s less about left or right and more about whether you got your garbage can delivered on time. Especially in Chicago.

[Mr. Illini]

I'm most invested in the 46th and 48th Ward election results today, not the mayoral contest.

Who are you pulling for in the 46th?

[Mr. Illini]

Looks like Vallas-Johnson for sure. Going to be a crazy race. At least it’s a real choice.

[Mr. Illini]

Lori Lightfoot carried all 50 wards in her 2019 victory. What a downfall. She did it to herself.

[Mr. Illini]

Let's Go Brandon! I'm tired of these Republicans cynically switching parties to attempt to sneak their conservative policies by the voters. We've tried this with Eric Adams in NYC and, lo and behold, the city isn't any better, it just has a complete clown at the helm.

I suppose you’ve never considered that maybe all Democrats are not as progressive as you. 36% of Chicago is not Republican. Chicago has been run by conservative Democrats for longer than it hasn’t.

[Mr. Illini]

Lightfoot concedes. Wow.

RIP. I really did like her 4 years ago. I bet she endorses Vallas if he lets her.

[Mr. Illini]

4 years ago I said she was going to be a disaster, and look what happened.  Remember, I'm right 99% of the time.

Oh, you voted for Toni?

[Mr. Illini]

4 years ago I said she was going to be a disaster, and look what happened.  Remember, I'm right 99% of the time.

Oh, you voted for Toni?

I wrote in Ed Burke.  Where did I say Toni wasn't worse?  I didn't vote to put either of them in the runoff.

I was being sarcastic because I remember you posting in favor of Lightfoot on this blog.

[Mr. Illini]

From Wikipedia. The areas that Vallas and Johnson won are both very white. Johnson was a consistent second in black areas, though, and Vallas was a strong second in Latino areas. Maybe a preview.

[Mr. Illini]

Not a Chicago expert, but Vallas only getting 33.8% (which will likely go lower with more VBMs counted I presume) as basically the only conservative in the race seems to bode well for Johnson? In theory, he'd coalesce the Johnson-Lightfoot-Garcia #s at least, right?

I’ve been seeing this take a lot. I’m not sure why people are assuming Lightfoot or Chuy voters would be a lock for Johnson.