Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Mr. Illini]

Ukraine is one thing, but pretty bold of Belarus (really Russia by proxy, let's be honest) to mess with Poland, a NATO and EU member.

Hope Blinken and Biden stand firmly here in support of our democratic allies and against Russian imperialism.

[Mr. Illini]

That's the thing though, its not is it. And they're not really all that "West-aligned" in any event.

I don't think so either, but then again I'm not a Russian general. As for West-aligned or not, well, that's the entire point of Ukraine wanting to join NATO: to align with the West so Ukraine can remove itself from the Russian sphere.

They may want to join NATO, but haven't done so and aren't doing so any time soon.

You don't have to be in NATO to be western-aligned. The current Zelensky government is largely western-aligned (compared to its predecessor government before the 2014 revolt), and that's why Ukraine is considering an attack and why NATO is preparing a harsh response.

[Mr. Illini]

The British government says it’s intelligence indicates that Russia will attempt a regime change in Ukraine

https://apnews.com/article/d6425c531f277b9dfb099511999822f4

This would disgrace the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians that rallied for and won their self governance eight years ago. Biden and Boris better toughen up immediately.

[Mr. Illini]

So apart from actually starting WW3, what are our options?

Tough sounding rhetoric is all well and good, but apart from the real danger of things escalating out of control it doesn't take into account the immense war weariness throughout the democratic world.

(why else was Afghanistan abandoned?)

If the United States and NATO made it clear beyond any doubt that they will defend the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine to the hilt, and began to station combat ready troops in Ukraine, Putin would undoubtedly stand down. Putin can win a war against Ukraine alone, but with the United States and the whole of NATO committed to defending Ukraine, Russia wouldn't even stand the shadow of a chance, and wouldn't risk the dangers of attacking NATO troops.

More likely he'll just throw more troops in.

I'm really disturbed that this entire forum seems to be cheering for WW3.

Just to be clear

1) There will be no WWIII because the United States is not going to engage Russia in a hot war

and

2) Assuming Russia attacks Ukraine, any negative fallout is the responsibility of Russia, who is attacking a sovereign country; not the countries that come to Ukraine’s defense.

[Mr. Illini]

UK, Poland, Ukraine considering formalizing security pact to fend off Russian aggression

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-02-01/britain-poland-and-ukraine-preparing-trilateral-security-pact-kyiv-says

Russia may have driven Ukraine further into the arms of the West with all of their saber rattling. Some gamesman Putin is!

[Mr. Illini]

Why are we supposed to believe that BigSerg would have “sources” (other than maybe Russian-sponsored news outlets)?

[Mr. Illini]

Ukraine should give up Donbass at this point, and give up NATO membership as well, in exchange for continued sovereignty. If Russia pushes further, surrender without fighting.

An analogy is this: when being robbed, you give up exactly what the robber asks for. Your possessions aren’t worth your life. Similarily, Ukraine’s sovereignty is not worth having hundreds of thousands of people die.

I imagine many Ukrainians wouldn’t see much of a difference between an invasion and occupation by Russia and becoming a vassal state.

[Mr. Illini]

President Biden will address the American public momentarily

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwaD5LaRt6Y

[Mr. Illini]

CNN's ground reporter in Kyiv is reporting explosions nearer to downtown and says (via Interior Minister) that there are already hundreds of casualties nationwide

[Mr. Illini]

CNN airing live video of air raid sirens ringing in Kyiv

[Mr. Illini]

Ground troops coming in at Senkivka, about 146 miles from Kyiv

[Mr. Illini]

CNN reporting that air raid sirens are ringing in Lviv as well, a western stronghold in the country

[Mr. Illini]

My only worry is if Russia interprets Poland becoming sanctuary for retreating Ukrainian forces counts as an "act of aggression," and it goes to war with Poland thinking NATO couldn't be invoked.

Putin and his military leaders are fully aware of what side Poland is on and they know not to touch any piece of it. They are at least that smart.

The more likely concern might be the risk of error if their operations move close to the Polish border.

[Mr. Illini]

Remember the outrage a couple months ago from many on this blog when Biden sent troops to Poland? Russia hit Lutsk last night right off the bat, which is ~50mi from the Polish border.

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497047402469109806

Kinda uncomfortable with how consistently good Rubio has been about this whole situation.

Maybe blasphemous but he’s been one of the better major US pols on foreign policy for awhile. Definitely the best Republican

[Mr. Illini]

Clearly that was another flaw with the Ukrainian defense plan, just like France in 1940 with the Ardenne, they planned their defenses around an "impassable" natural barrier that wasn't actually impassable. But first, this was not a surprise attack and the Ukrainians should have been digging trenches and otherwise building fortifications to blunt the expected attack from Belarus. They do have entrenchments in place in Luhansk and Donetsk and thus the attacks from the DPR and LPR have not gotten very far. Second, the "trading space for time" and "bleed the enemy" strategy you refer to implies Kiev needs to be given up and needed to be combined with an evacuation of the capital and Zelensky to Lvov. But Zelensky chose to stay in Kiev, which is good to keep Ukrainian morale high, but it had to be combined with an all-out defense of Kiev or else the result is what we see now; Zelensky is threatened directly within 2 days and is forced to ask for an armistice.

Maybe I'm nitpicking, but do you use the Russian spelling for Ukrainian cities intentionally? "Kiev" is one thing, but no one says "Lvov."

[Mr. Illini]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-crisis-mp-interview-ak-47-112600107.html

Former Ukrainian president from 2014-2019 takes to the streets of Kyiv to fight the Russians

Wow I hope he’s alright

Imagine any of America's billionaires doing this. Poroshekno is wealthy enough he could have left on a private jet and be in the Caymans already.

He is most likely on Putin’s “hit list” if it exists as well. He won’t be treated well if the Russians take control of the country. Makes it even more heroic of him to stay and fight.

[Mr. Illini]

lol okay so even Die Linke applauded Scholz's announcement. DIE LINKE. They also admitted openly in their parliamentary speech that they never expected Russia to do this, and how they were wrong on Russia.

I’ve heard similar “reflections” among the American left, and tbh it is stunning to me. It really reveals how naive they have been.

[Mr. Illini]

What is happening now in Ukraine is the genocide of the Ukrainian people. If we talk about me, everything is calm in my region, except for the shelling of military units. I have now signed up for territorial defense and am preparing to defend my country

God bless you, Andriy. The whole world is with you!

[Mr. Illini]

Gigantic crowd in Prague showing support for Ukraine.

I had a chance to visit this beautiful city several years ago and I remember how passionately people there spoke about their country's Velvet Revolution. I sensed a much greater appreciation for the EU and democratic values than I ever experienced in Western Europe, where these things are taken for granted.

https://twitter.com/bibalukas/status/1497934137822523397?s=20&t=FZtL0axgsqX0...