IL-12/13: WAA: Republicans leading

[Mr. Illini]

Wish we could see the cross tabs. I don't trust WAA without them.

Also, I am wondering how this factors in the student vote. They make up a big piece of the Dem vote in IL-13 (both ISU and UIUC are in the district), but most have phones that would likely be traced to their home districts.

At the end of the day, if Dems want a shot they will really have to get Champaign, McLean, St. Clair, and Madison counties to vote this year.

[Mr. Illini]

Wish we could see the cross tabs. I don't trust WAA without them.

Also, I am wondering how this factors in the student vote. They make up a big piece of the Dem vote in IL-13 (both ISU and UIUC are in the district), but most have phones that would likely be traced to their home districts.

At the end of the day, if Dems want a shot they will really have to get Champaign, McLean, St. Clair, and Madison counties to vote this year.

I subscribe to the web site that commissioned the polls. If there are particular cross tabs, I can check them, but I think it would be inappropriate for me to post them to the general public.

BTW, yesterday that same site released polls from IL-10 and IL-11. Here are the top lines:

IL-10 (919 LV) Schneider (D-inc) 46, Dold (R) 44, undecided 9.
IL-11 (918 LV) Foster (D-inc) 47, Senger (R) 43, undecided 10.

Bull crap that Bost leads by more than Foster does.

[Mr. Illini]

Wish we could see the cross tabs. I don't trust WAA without them.

Also, I am wondering how this factors in the student vote. They make up a big piece of the Dem vote in IL-13 (both ISU and UIUC are in the district), but most have phones that would likely be traced to their home districts.

At the end of the day, if Dems want a shot they will really have to get Champaign, McLean, St. Clair, and Madison counties to vote this year.

I subscribe to the web site that commissioned the polls. If there are particular cross tabs, I can check them, but I think it would be inappropriate for me to post them to the general public.

BTW, yesterday that same site released polls from IL-10 and IL-11. Here are the top lines:

IL-10 (919 LV) Schneider (D-inc) 46, Dold (R) 44, undecided 9.
IL-11 (918 LV) Foster (D-inc) 47, Senger (R) 43, undecided 10.

Bull crap that Bost leads by more than Foster does.

The poll respondents are probably being pulled by the gov race which has Rauner up 48-39 in IL-11. That's not a crazy number in a suburban area that has been swinging 10 points between Pres and off years, though it's a bit larger than I would expect.. Joliet and Aurora have notoriously low turnout in off year elections and a likely voter screen will lop a lot of people out of the poll from those areas.

And so you do expect Bost to win by more than Foster does?