Your Current 2014 House Ratings

[Mr. Illini]

Just Illinois because that's what I follow most closely.

Safe D
1
2
3
4
5
7
9

Likely D
8
11

Lean D
17

Toss Up
10
13

Lean R
12

Likely R
6

Safe R
14
15
16
18

Analysis:

IL-17: Bustos came out of the gate strong but Schilling has shown that he knows what he is doing. NRCC showed they knew what they were doing here by keeping at it in this district when many thought it was out of play. Quinn will hurt Bustos in this district due to the prevalence of working-class white Dems here. Nonetheless, it is a blue district and Bustos is still favored.

IL-10: Those who think this is Lean D are ignoring the fact that Dold is the Republican running here. His ground game has been seemingly fantastic and his branding as a moderate Republican still sells in the district that has used that brand for so long. Schneider's task will be getting Waukegan to the polls, which it is so far unclear how he has been at doing that. Toss up.

IL-13: Conversely, anyone who has this district at Lean R is ignoring what has been going on in the district. Unfortunately for Callis, the DCCC was forced to shift advertising money to 12 and 10 when those races began to look less secure than previously thought. Unfortunately for Davis, however, Callis' ground game has been great. Voter registration efforts on the college campuses in the district produced the highest numbers of any district for the DCCC. Now it is about getting those voters to vote, which is the unseen piece of the game at this point, keeping it a Toss Up.

IL-12: This race has taken a dramatic turn over the last two months from being somewhere that saw little challenge (it was consensused at Likely D for awhile) to being fiercely contested. Bost has successfully channeled discontent among Southern Illinoisans toward Washington and Springfield and this may be the district that Quinn hurts the DCCC the most. Also worth noting is that unlike 12 and 13, Enyart's campaign doesn't seem to be running a star ground game. It leans R.