are the following stocks under- or over-valued on Intrade? (user search)
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  are the following stocks under- or over-valued on Intrade? (search mode)
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Author Topic: are the following stocks under- or over-valued on Intrade?  (Read 2044 times)
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

« on: December 09, 2007, 05:16:59 PM »

2008DEM.NOM.CLINTON 62.0: Slightly overvalued, should be maybe 55
2008DEM.NOM.OBAMA 30.0: Slight undervalued, should be maybe 35
2008DEM.NOM.EDWARDS 4.9: About right
2008DEM.NOM.GORE 2.3: Way overvalued (With how close this number is to the Gore running number, people think that if Gore jumps in he automatically wins the nomination)

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 39.5: Overvalued, should be 30-35
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 19.9: Very slight undervalued, should be 20-22
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 19.3: About right, should be 19-21
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 8.2: Overvalued, 5-6
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.4: About right
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 4.9: Way, way, way overvalued, 0.5-1
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE 1.4 Way, way, way, way, way overvalued, 0
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH 0.3: He's not running, should be 0.1

2008.DEM.VP.GORE 15.9: Are you kidding me?, 1-2
2008.DEM.VP.OBAMA 11.7: Once again, are you kidding me? 20-25, at least, although a couple of months ago before the Hillary-Obama spat began, this would be a lot higher

2008.REP.VP.HUCKABEE 28.0: About right, I hope he's the top contender for VP

GORE.RUNNING.2008 2.6: Hmm, this actually isn't too bad.  Maybe should be around 1.5, but if there's a split convention, or Hillary has to drop out, or a crisis, Gore could step in.
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True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2007, 10:11:10 PM »

2008.DEM.VP.OBAMA 11.7: Once again, are you kidding me? 20-25, at least, although a couple of months ago before the Hillary-Obama spat began, this would be a lot higher

You really think that if Obama doesn't get the nomination himself that there's then about a 1 in 3 chance of him being selected for VP (20 to 25% / 65% chance he's not nominated for prez himself = ~1/3)?  I really don't think it's that likely that HRC would pick him.


But in comparison to the other candidates offered for the VP nomination, he is certainly the most likely.  Compared to his numbers for Gore at this point, he is way undervalued.
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