By forgoing a re-election bid next year, the Republican dubbed "Matinee Mitt" is free to seek his party's 2008 presidential nomination. Winning a second term as Massachusetts governor might have been just as hard.
Despite his good looks and cachet from leading a liberal "blue state," Gov. Mitt Romney trailed two potential Democratic opponents in the polls before announcing Dec. 14 that he won't run in 2006. His home-state plight underscores the challenge Republicans face next year in retaining governorships they have held for a decade.
[Mitt Romney]
"The math is not in our favor this cycle," said Mr. Romney, who recently became chairman of the Republican Governors Association. Republicans hold 28 seats overall, including 22 of the 36 up for election. In pivotal states such as Ohio, Florida, California and Colorado, they are girding for battles. Three Democrats have declared their intention to run for Massachusetts governor.
Democrats will have to work to hold some current seats as well -- in Iowa, where Gov. Tom Vilsack is retiring; Michigan; and Wisconsin. But gubernatorial races may be a better opportunity for the party than the Congressional contests in which redistricting has limited the number of competitive House seats. Winning governorships may also be more beneficial to Democrats chances' of taking back the White House.
"If we're going to win in '08, strengthening the Democratic party shouldn't be through Washington, but through the states," says Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico. He heads the Democratic Governors Association and, like Mr. Romney, is exploring a presidential run.
Republican gubernatorial struggles are only somewhat related to the party's other national problems: President Bush's weakened standing, policy setbacks, intraparty bickering and ethics scandals. At least eight Republican governors aren't seeking re-election because of term limits or other reasons. Mr. Romney predicts Democrats could win between three to six of those seats.
"If you look at the races where those retirements will occur, some are in heavily Democratic states," he said in an interview. The prime example aside from his own state: New York, where Republican incumbent George Pataki is leaving after three terms. And the departures of Govs. Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee are creating Democratic opportunities in the more evenly balanced states of Florida and Arkansas.
Republicans also face political storms elsewhere. Scandal has rocked the administration of departing Republican Gov. Bob Taft in Ohio. In California, former actor Arnold Schwarzenegger is seeking a new term, but he is reeling from battles with labor unions and the defeat of ballot initiatives he championed in a special election last month.
Other struggles stem from tax-and-spending decisions pushed by various Republican governors amid the revenue crunch created by the 2001-2002 recession. Beset by one of the steepest state revenue drops since the Depression, caused by falling income and capital-gains taxes, several reneged on pledges not to raise taxes.
"The fiscal situation in states was very dire," said Sujit CanagaRetna, a fiscal analyst with the Council of State Governments. "Even though raising taxes is a very radioactive strategy, the severity of the crisis just forced these policy makers and legislators to pursue tax increases as an option."
It is scant comfort for some of those Republican governors that state budgets are now rebounding, thanks to the stronger economy and stock market, heightening chances for election-year tax cuts in 2006. There "is a disquiet among the Republican base and maybe even possibly somewhat of a fatigue about some Republicans," said Craig Shirley, a GOP strategist.
In Alabama, Republican Gov. Bob Riley angered party faithful when he unsuccessfully pushed for a state-tax increase to deal with a budget shortfall of more than $500 million. He faces a Republican primary challenge from Roy Moore, the former state Supreme Court justice who installed a Ten Commandments monument in the rotunda of the state Judicial building.
Alaska Gov. Frank Murkowski is also facing trouble after breaking a campaign pledge to not raise taxes. Mr. Murkowski hasn't said whether he will run for re-election but is expected to face a fight if he does. He also must contend with questions about his decision to appoint his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to fill his Senate seat in 2002.
In Nevada, tax increases pushed by term-limited Gov. Kenny Guinn have soured the political environment for Republicans. In Colorado, Gov. Bill Owens has faced a backlash after switching positions and advocating that voters rescind the state's strict spending cap, which he said was hampering funding for education and other services. Mr. Owens is also term-limited and thus won't be on the ballot, but Republicans face a potential battle to retain control of the state.
[Endangered Majority]
In some cases, Republican struggles have little to do with tax-and-spending issues. Maryland's Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich is dealing with controversy over whether his administration targeted certain state bureaucrats for termination for partisan reasons. In Democratic-leaning New York, the gubernatorial prospects of Attorney General Eliot Spitzer are lifted by his corruption-fighting profile and the fact that Mr. Pataki has served three terms since unseating Democrat Mario Cuomo in 1994.
"Voters often get a little antsy and think it's time for a change," said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst on gubernatorial races at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Voters in Mr. Romney's adopted state of Massachusetts may be a case in point. Though the state votes reliably Democratic in presidential contests, Republicans have controlled the governorship since Michael Dukakis left office two years after his 1988 presidential defeat to George H.W. Bush, the current president's father.
Mr. Romney, who lost a Massachusetts Senate bid against Democratic icon Edward Kennedy in 1994, was elected governor in 2002 after his stewardship of the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City that year. But in office, he has had trouble working with the Democratic-controlled legislature and has taken a right-leaning stance on such issues as abortion and gay marriage.
He also has faced criticism for being distracted by his exploration of a potential 2008 presidential candidacy, during which he has poked fun at the state's liberal bent. While Massachusetts has elected Republican governors since 1990, Tufts University political scientist Jeffrey Berry calls Mr. Romney "more partisan and more openly antagonistic" to Democrats than his Republican predecessors.
One of those predecessors, William Weld, moved to New York after leaving the Massachusetts governorship in 1997. He is now running to succeed Mr. Pataki but trails Mr. Spitzer in the polls.
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