Interesting scenario, a Kennedy candidacy in 1980, could he have won? Doubtful, but how would he have performed is the critical question… its important to remember that Carter lead Reagan in the poll for the early part of the race, in the end it was the debates which swung it for the Gipper, what would Kennedy vs. Reagan debates have been like?
The battleground would have shifted, Kennedy couldn’t have relied on the southern base that Carter could, indeed even in 1980 the margins in most of the southern states where agonisingly thin. Kennedy would however have not suffered from the handicap of being an unpopular incumbent, he could just as well as Reagan appeal to voters as the candidate best equipped to make for “a fresh start”… in the end I don’t think it would be enough, things might be a great deal closer than they where in reality in 1980, but I think Reagan would still win.
Reagan/ Bush (REP) – 400EV, 49%
Kennedy/ Hollings (DEM) – 138EV, 43%
Anderson/ Lucey (Ind) – 0EV, 6%
There is no way Kennedy takes South Carolina, even with Hollings.
