As long as the Republicans maintain their hard-edged cultural conservatism and anti-intellualism.
Asian-Americans—especially the older ones—do have some socially conservative tendencies, but the current GOP is pretty repugnant to minorities. Younger Asians aren’t going to forget the Trump era and Trump movement’s hostility towards cultural diversity anytime soon. Some in the GOP may try to say “oh, Asians are so successful and family-oriented, they should be Republican”, but it’s not that simple.
That kind of GOP thought is silly, but so is the "minorities will grow and continue to vote Democrat, forever and ever amen" that a lot of centre lefties like to posit.
The GOP is in a bad spot. At some point the Dems will have a significant advantage in the electoral college and Congress. Eventually their coalition will be too large and unwieldy. Some part of the majority coalition will feel they're not getting a fair shake, the issues will change, and that group will start to drift. We saw this with Southerners in the 1970's and upper middle class suburban whites in the 2000's and 2010's.
To me, it doesn't really matter how *insert bad thing here* the GOP is. We're talking change over a generation here. What matters is that Asians seem like the worst fit for the Dem coalition and therefore are the best candidate for the GOP to pick off eventually.
I didn’t say that minorities will always vote Democratic. What I said was the the current GOP is a very bad fit for minorities. The party appears very hostile towards immigrants, especially Hispanics and Muslims. Many minorities see what’s going and and hear the rhetoric from the Trump wing of the party, such as downplaying of unarmed blacks getting shot and Trump’s “Pocohontas” crap. Not all Republicans are racist, not even all Trump voters are, but many people see the GOP as an exclusively white Christian nationalistic group. Trump has not been much help in dousing that perception, as seen with his reaction to Charlottesville.
Asians, especially successful ones, may not seem like the greatest fit for Democrats. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is widespread support for the Conservative Party in Canada in the Chinese community, but I’m not sure the Conservatives have the anti-intellectual, xenophobic reputation that the GOP has. I have read some conservative commentators wonder why the Indian-American community wasn’t more Republican (successful, religious, family-oriented). A long time ago, they wondered the same about Jews (a very old joke went “Jews earn like Espiscopalians but vote like Puerto Ricans”). The GOP was not the quite the same back then, but maybe there are parallels. Identity politics matter.
Again, I didn’t say the GOP will be a certain way forever, but there are reasons why David Duke likes Trump so much.
