Appalachia: A Reversion to the Mean? (user search)
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  Appalachia: A Reversion to the Mean? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Appalachia: A Reversion to the Mean?  (Read 984 times)
TDAS04
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« on: October 24, 2013, 12:06:03 PM »

I suspect that subsequent candidates will perform about the same in all those states except WV (and maybe KY), which will continue to swing R.

Hillary would certainly do much better in Arkansas.  If she is the nominee next time, Arkansas and Missouri could be tossups, but only if she is considerably ahead nationally, so their PVI ratings would still be Republican.  I doubt that she would have any meaningful chance at winning any of the others, although she would easily outperform Obama in West Virginia and Kentucky, while Tennessee and Louisiana could trend slightly left.

Another Democratic nominee, such as Biden, would probably have to write all of these states off.
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