Rothenberg Initial 2016 Senate ratings

[LeBron]

All the Democratic ratings look good. There's no way the GOP will pick up any of those seats in the safe category, even if it is an open seat, plus I feel Reid is underestimated.

For the tossups, Rothenberg might be being a little too generous to Kirk and Johnson. I would leave them at Tilt D for now.

Tilts R - I agree with putting Toomey here (or tossup), but Rubio's seat should be lean R. The FL Dems ability to screw winnable races up and their lack of a bench.

Leans R - I'll agree here, but the OH, NH and NC ratings could really go either way depending on who runs. If Strickland, Hassan and Hagan run, these shift right to tossups. Otherwise, tilt/lean R.

Favored/Likely R - AZ fits in okay here and I guess I can understand GA because of Isakson's vulnerability to a Tea Party challenge, but why the heck is Grassley here? He's a lifer and not even Vilsack can beat him. Too popular.

Safe R - Some of these are fine for now, but depending on what happens in AK, IN, KY, MO, and UT, could shift into a more vulnerable category.

[LeBron]

Leans R - I'll agree here, but the OH, NH and NC ratings could really go either way depending on who runs. If Strickland, Hassan and Hagan run, these shift right to tossups. Otherwise, tilt/lean R.

Oh please. Have you seen Hagan's favorability ratings?

That's not to say she can't win, but North Carolina does not shift right to a Tossup if Hagan declares. She would need some tailwinds to beat Burr.

Her approvals aren't that good, no but keep in mind she got hit by the wave. She was a great Senator. Obama's approval after the midterms is already going up, and Hagan is likely to rebound as well.

I know polls should not be looked at closely this far out, but Hagan in the polls was also neck and neck with Burr, and is doing better than all other potential Dem challengers.

Hagan lost to Thom Tillis. How would she win against someone much less hated than Mr. Tillis?

I could be wrong on this when the time comes, but 2016 is not going to be a GOP wave like it was for Tillis. More or less, it will be a Democratic year. Also, Burr has pretty awful numbers like Tillis did. He's underwater with a 31% approval, and it doesn't really help when the most recent thing he's known for is his complete disrespect to veterans.