Early 2016 Senate Ratings

[LeBron]

New York- Likely D, Schumer's biggest weakness is a primary, and should a Bill De Blasio take the nomination away, someone along the lines of George Pataki could win in the General. The situation is very unlikely however.

Ohio- Lean D, I think Kasich defeats Portman in a primary, and Democrats will nominate Richard Cordaray. Kasich is a slightly more toxic candidate than Portman, and Clinton at the top of the ticket could help here.

Schumer and Portman will be renominated and reelected. Why do people on this forum underappreciate/understimate Rob Portman so much? There are at least 12 seats Democrats should be focusing on in 2016 before Ohio.

Because Portman's approval rating is just bombshell. He dropped like 16 points after voting against background checks and 10 points after coming out in support of same-sex marriage. Just because the Republicans have held this seat since John Glenn's retirement doesn't mean Portman will soar to re-election especially in a swing-state in a Presidential year. There's almost no way Kasich runs for the seat either because no matter if he loses his Governor's race or not, he has his eyes set on the Presidency.

Ohio right now I would consider a tossup/tilt R, but if Hillary ends up being on the same ballot and the Democrats can get someone like Michael Coleman, Marcia Fudge or Dennis Kucinich to run (Cordray  will decline now that he's with the CFPB), it could be lean D.

You've gotta be fcuking kidding me. You are coming off as barfbag of the left right now.

Here is a ranking of the races in terms of the likelihood of them being Democratic pickups (most likely to least likely)

Wisconsin
Illinois
New Hampshire
Arizona
Florida
Pennsylvania
Missouri
North Carolina
Iowa
Kentucky
Georgia
Ohio
Indiana
Alaska
Louisiana
Arkansas
South Carolina
Kansas
Oklahoma
Idaho
South Dakota
North Dakota
Alabama
Utah

More Likely than Not
Solid Possibility
There's a Chance
Doubtful
Very Unlikely
No Way, José

And for the likelihood of a Republican Pickup

Nevada
Colorado
Washington
Connecticut
Oregon
California
New York
Hawaii
Maryland
Vermont

Perhaps
Not Likely
No Way, José

How do you consider Iowa a solid possibility but Ohio doubtful? Grassley already announced he's running and is almost guaranteed to win re-election despite it being a state that usually leans D. Portman hasn't even announced yet if he'll run for another term, but due to his high unpopularity in Ohio, it really shouldn't matter either way. And I will take back what I said on Kucinich being lean D; he is with Fox News afterall so he wouldn't run anyways. But if any seat has a better chance at flipping to the Democratic Party in 2016, it will be Ohio before Iowa.

I agree on everything else except I think Connecticut should be listed under there as "No Way, Jose" because there's nobody who can beat Blumenthal. Even in the GOP wave, Linda McMahon couldn't even come close to defeating him no matter how much money she put into the race.

[LeBron]

Alabama - Safe R (with or without another Shelby run)

Alaska - Safe R (Assuming Murkowski runs again)

Arizona - Tossup/Tilt R (I don't think a McCain retirement matters as much as a potential Giffords,
Carmona or Sinema run would be)

Arkansas - Safe R (Boozman is perhaps the least controversial GOP Senator out there now and there will be no serious Democrat that will try contesting this)

California - Safe D (Crossing my fingers for another Boxer run)

Colorado - Leans D (If he can win in 2010, he certainly can in 2016)

Connecticut - Safe D (It should be fun to see if Linda runs again )

Florida - Tossup (Assuming Rubio runs for re-election, this seat will be very vulnerable with a Hillary run nationally and a Sink run here)

Georgia - Likely R (Only because Isakson's intentions aren't known yet)

Hawaii - Safe D (With either Schatz or Hanabusa)

Idaho - Safe R (Even in a bizarre scenario where Andrus runs, Crapo would still hold on)

Illinois - Tossup/Tilt D (Assuming Kirk runs, Madigan would still have a small advantage)

Indiana - Likely R (Since Bayh is very possible, but only a matter of whether he goes after Coats or Pence)

Iowa - Likely R (It would probably be safe with Grassley, but he still might change his mind on a run)

Kansas - Safe R (Moran isn't going anywhere anytime soon)

Kentucky - Likely R (It's safe with Paul, but if that KY bill doesn't pass, then he's got to make up his mind)

Louisiana - Safe R (I'm unsure whether or not Vitter could seek re-election if he loses in 2015, but barring a Mitch Landrieu run, it's safe Republican)

Maryland - Safe D (It would be nice to see Mikulski run again)

Missouri - Tossup (It's lean R w/o a Nixon run, but he's term-limited in 2016 so I don't see why he wouldn't challenge Blunt)

Nevada - Leans D (Sandoval probably won't run and Heck might be voted out this year, so the NV GOP is left hanging)

New Hampshire - Tossup (A Tea Party primary plus a strong Dem challenger will make this very competitive)

New York - Safe D (Hopefully, Schumer retires)

North Carolina - Leans R (Though it could become a tossup if Burr retires)

North Dakota - Safe R (Hoeven is beyond safe)

Ohio - Tossup (Portman is being overestimated and Dems have plenty of strong candidates that could run here and with a strong Hillary showing in OH, this will be a bellwether to watch)

Oklahoma - Safe R (No matter who wins the special)

Oregon - Safe D (Because it's Wyden)

Pennsylvania - Tossup (Toomey really needs to start lightening up his record or else he'll go down just like Santorum)

South Carolina - Safe R (I'd personally like to see Scott retire just since the GOP will use him to show how open they are to African American rights)

South Dakota - Safe R (Lean R if Thune retires because then that would be Sandlin's chance)

Utah - Safe R (If Matheson runs, lean R, but it seems he's eyeing the Governorship)

Vermont - Safe D (Preferably, I'd like to see Leahy run for another term)

Washington - Safe D (It would be fun to see another Dino Rossi run )

Wisconsin - Tossup (Though would lean D with Feingold)

That would be D+3, with the ones in bolded black too close to call.