Predict who will be elected governor in Nov 2014 in each of the following states (user search)
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  Predict who will be elected governor in Nov 2014 in each of the following states (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict who will be elected governor in Nov 2014 in each of the following states  (Read 11065 times)
LeBron
LeBron FitzGerald
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,906
United States


« on: March 11, 2013, 12:34:18 AM »

2013 Elections:
New Jersey: Chris Christie
Virginia: Terry McAuliffe (Switch to Democrats)

2014 Elections:
Alabama: Robert Bentley
Alaska: Sean Parnell
Arizona: Neil Giuliano (Switch to Democrats)
Arkansas: Mark Darr (Switch to Republicans)
California: Jerry Brown
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Conneticut: Dan Malloy
Florida: Charlie Crist (Switch to Democrats)
Georgia: Nathan Deal
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie
Idaho: Butch Otter
Illinois: Pat Quinn
Iowa: Terry Branstad
Kansas: Carl Brewer (Switch to Democrats)
Maine: Mike Michaud (Switch to Democrats)
Maryland: Anthony Brown
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano
Michigan: Gary Peters (Switch to Democrats)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton
Nebraska: Rick Sheehy
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: Betty Sutton (Switch to Democrats - Currently tied in the polls with Cordray)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin
Oregon: John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Kathleen Kane or Ed Rendell (Switch to Democrats)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (Switch to Democrats)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Rick Perry
Vermont: Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold (Switch to Democrats - Beats Walker in a close election)
Wyoming: Matt Mead

Which from my projections, would be 11 seat switches, 10 to Democrats & 1 to the Republicans which would be a net gain of +9 for the Dem's giving Shumlin & the Democrats the majority in the governorships once more 28-22.

While we're at it, let's also do 2015 & 2016:

2015 Elections:
Kentucky: Jack Conway
Louisiana: David Vitter
Mississippi: Phil Bryant

2016 Elections:
Delaware: Beau Biden
Indiana: Mike Pence
Missouri: Chris Koster
Montana: Steve Bullock
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan?
North Carolina: Walter Dalton beats out McCrory this time
North Dakota: Jack Dalrymple
Utah: Gary Herbert
Vermont: Peter Shumlin
Washington: Jay Inslee
West Virginia: Rick Thompson
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LeBron
LeBron FitzGerald
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,906
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2013, 12:43:30 AM »

2013:
New Jersey - Chris Christie
Virginia - Terry McAuliffe (With the Cuccinelli scandal arising and E.W. Jackson ruining everything for him, McAuliffe is a sure win now and will win by about 4-5 points).

2014:
Alabama- Robert J. Bentley
Alaska- Sean Parnell
Arizona- Chad Campbell (I think the Democrats can win this one given that Hispanics make up over 30% of the electorate).
Arkansas- Asa Hutchinson (I would have said Ross back in February, but the GOP gap is widening too much for a Democratic hold)
California- Jerry Brown
Colorado- John Hickenlooper
Connecticut- Dan Malloy (By a close margin)
Florida- Charlie Crist
Georgia- Nathan Deal
Hawaii- Neil Abercrombie
Idaho- Butch Otter
Illinois- Dan Rutherford (Kind of too early to say, but I think Rutherford could eak out a win even if Daley wins the primary).
Iowa- Terry Branstad
Kansas- Sam Brownback
Maine- Mike Michaud (Given how unpopular LePage has become, Cutler won't make as big of an impact on the election as he did in 2010).
Maryland- Anthony Brown
Massachusetts- Mike Capuano
Michigan- Mark Schauer (Assuming King doesn't run, just like with FitzGerald, it's merely getting name recognition in the next year and then he should be able to defeat him).
Minnesota- Mark Dayton
Nebraska- Don Stenberg
Nevada- Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire- Maggie Hassan
New Mexico- Susana Martinez
New York- Andrew Cuomo
Ohio- Ed FitzGerald (His approval is at 54% and he's beating FitzGerald by 14 points, but there's so many factors that play into this that can get the Democrat the win. Again, name recognition, he'll get more votes out of the North and probably the Southeast to with the help of Strickland, unemployment and poverty is rising, and just like when Strickland's approval bombed in Autumn 2010 due to all the jobs lost, I think the same will end up happening to Kasich).
Oklahoma- Mary Fallin
Oregon- John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania- Allyson Schwartz
Rhode Island- Gina Raimondo (Even if Chafee wins the primary, his state approval would increase by election time and he could still win it).
South Carolina- Nikki Haley (Same reason SawxDem gave).
South Dakota- Dennis Dauggard
Tennessee- Bill Haslam
Texas- Greg Abbott
Vermont- Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin- Scott Walker
Wyoming- Dave Freudenthal (I don't see Mead being allowed to run for another term, so this could be a huge upset for the Wyoming Republicans).

So after the 2014 elections, I'm predicting the Democrats will hold 25 Governor's seats and the Republicans 25 Governor's seats.
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