Allan Litchman “Trump will become first president to lose re-election bid since 1992”

[Kleine Scheiße]

He predicted Gore in 2000 and Trump in 2016 so he sometimes claims his model predicts the popular vote winner and sometimes the electoral college winner. He's a complete fraud and it's embarrassing that he still gets attention.

I agree that his model is not very reliable and several of the keys are completely subjective. Though as for 2000 to be fair, if he was claiming that Gore would win the electoral college, you can’t really blame him for getting it wrong as that election was for all extents and purposes tied (and one might argue Gore was the rightful EV winner).

After 2000 he's been claiming that the model was right in saying Gore specifically because it predicts the PV and not the EV. Then his model predicted Trump in 2016 and then he claimed he was right even though Trump lost the PV.

Nate Silver also did a good write-up on why the model is BS. It doesn't correlate at all with the outcomes beyond the win/lose metric.

An even bigger problem is most of the criteria are incredibly subjective to the point you can have it predict whatever you want it to after the fact.

All of you are correct.