Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Njall]

Mainstreet Alberta Provincial Poll:

UCP numbers are compared to previous WRP+PC numbers.

Topline numbers (change from April 2017):
UCP: 57% (-9)
NDP: 29% (+5)
AP: 9% (+4)
ALP: 4% (-1)

Including Undecideds (change from April 2017):
UCP: 43% (-14)
NDP: 21% (no change)
AP: 7% (+3)
ALP: 3% (-1)
Undecided: 27% (+12)

Also of note, the Alberta party is now polling at double digits (10% including undecideds and 14% decided and leaning) in Calgary. As well, 53% of respondents aged 18-34, including undecideds (and 67% decided and leaning) are supposedly supporting the UCP. I seriously doubt we'd actually see that latter result in an election though.

[Njall]

Grit MP Darshan King will be expelled from caucus this week.

This will be a blow to the Liberals in Northeast Calgary. Kang has, or at least had, a lot of personal popularity in that part of the city, with his 2008 provincial and 2015 federal wins both breaking long conservative streaks in his seats.

[Njall]

Grit MP Darshan King will be expelled from caucus this week.

This will be a blow to the Liberals in Northeast Calgary. Kang has, or at least had, a lot of personal popularity in that part of the city, with his 2008 provincial and 2015 federal wins both breaking long conservative streaks in his seats.

Considering both Liberal wins were fairly narrow, what is the likelihood of them holding those seats.  On the one hand Calgary is not as conservative as 25 years ago so I could even see the Liberals picking up more, but at the same time it seems the Conservative vote will be a lot more motivated to show up in 2019 than it was in 2015.  Obviously that won't be nearly enough to win nationally, heck the Liberals could still easily win a majority even if they lose both seats in Calgary.

Liberal favourability in Calgary Centre will depend in part on how good or bad the Conservative candidate is (Crockatt was not well-liked), but at the moment I would say that Kent Hehr would be favoured for re-election there. He's personally popular in the area, and progressive voters in Calgary tend to flock to a progressive incumbent, no matter the party, where one exists

The Calgary Skyview area is always tough to predict politically. It was historically the part of Calgary where progressive voters federally overwhelmingly showed a preference for the Liberals (whereas in other parts of the city the vote would be more fractured, such as Calgary Centre in 2011 where the LPC, NDP, and GPC shared 40-45% of the vote). But Darshan Kang's personal popularity in the area always seemed to push the Liberals over the top there, both provincially and federally. So, the Liberals winning here again will likely rely on them being able to recruit a local leader within one of the leading ethnic or religious communities.

The outcome in both ridings will also likely be impacted by the results of the 2019 provincial election. If the UCP proves victorious and immediately begins enacting a hard-right agenda, some voters may react by voting against Conservative candidate federally, especially in areas where the Conservatives aren't incumbents.

[Njall]

Alberta MLA Karen McPherson (Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill) has left the NDP caucus to sit as an independent, citing dissatisfaction with increased polarization in the political system.

[Njall]

Alberta Party Leader Greg Clarkhas resigned as Leader in order to trigger a leadership race. It appears that the hope is that this leadership race will generate excitement around the Alberta Party, attracting new members and donors, in the wake of Kenney's election as UCP leader. Clark has said that he may run in this leadership race, but that he is undecided as of yet. He will, however, definitely be staying on as MLA for Calgary-Elbow, and will be running for re-election in 2019.

[Njall]

Conservatives kick Senator Lynn Beyak out of their caucus

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/ottawa/lynn-beyak-kicked-out-conservative-caucus-1.4474130

Good. But it’s still disappointing that Scheer didn’t do this much earlier. Beyak’s views on residential schools have been well-known for a while.

[Njall]

The leadership election for the Alberta Party, which will conclude on February 27th, looks like it's shaping up to be a three-person race to succeed former leader Greg Clark. While candidates have until January 15th to enter the race, it seems unlikely at this point that anyone else will step forward. The currently-declared candidates are as follows (alphabetical by last name):

Rick Fraser: MLA for Calgary-South East since 2012. Fraser was elected as a Progressive Conservative MLA in both 2012 and 2017. He initially joined the UCP in July, but left the party to sit as an Independent in September while decrying the increasing polarization in Alberta politics. Prior to his election, he was a paramedic, and was for a time the President of the CUPE union local which represented a majority of Alberta paramedics. Concurrent with his leadership announcement, he also crossed the floor to the Alberta Party in the legislature, bringing the party caucus to 3 MLAs.

Kara Levis: Calgary-based lawyer for Transcanada Corporation and President of the National Womens' Liberal Commission (womens' engagement arms of the Federal Liberal party). Levis was also a founder of the non-profit Ask Her, which was active in the 2017 Calgary municipal election encouraging more women to put themselves forwards as candidates for City Council.

Stephen Mandel: best known as being the Mayor of Edmonton between 2004 and 2013, and a strong advocate for urban and social issues. He also served as Health Minister in Jim Prentice's brief PC government, and was MLA for Edmonton-Whitemud between November 2014 and May 2015. Prior to his entry into politics, he was President of the Mandel Group (a real estate company), and was and continues to be active with a number of community organizations in Edmonton. He was also, as of recent, appointed Chancellor of Concordia University in Edmonton.

[Njall]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/01/12/sex-offenders-sentence-delayed-so-can-finish-college.html

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Shouldn't there be laws covering this?

Covering which part of this? He was sentenced, so by definition there were laws covering this, though it's arguable that they weren't applied stringently enough. For the part of the University, as the article explains, they can't do anything regarding his student status because he was not a student at the time that this occurred.

[Njall]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/01/12/sex-offenders-sentence-delayed-so-can-finish-college.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Shouldn't there be laws covering this?

Covering which part of this? He was sentenced, so by definition there were laws covering this, though it's arguable that they weren't applied stringently enough. For the part of the University, as the article explains, they can't do anything regarding his student status because he was not a student at the time that this occurred.

I can't understand why the university can't act on the basis that he did not disclose any of this.  I think this is a fairly tough issue because there are legitimate competing interests, but I certainly think it's fair to argue that he should be required to serve time and take rehab courses while in jail before a university lets him back on their campus.

I'm not sure where in the process of applying to university this would have come up. That said, I agree that his sentence shouldn't have been moved, and that he should have served his sentence before coming back to attend classes.

[Njall]

While I never want to make any firm predictions considering how often the unexpected has happened, I see a Conservative majority is extremely unlikely.  Minority perhaps (but I suspect the NDP and Liberals would gang up them to keep them out).  The best case scenario for the Tories, albeit not most likely, is around 150 seats, otherwise 7 in Atlantic Canada, hold what they have in Quebec, 60 seats in Ontario, 20 seats in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, 32 seats in Alberta, and 20 seats in British Columbia.  Obviously they will likely do worse, but if the Liberals continue to mess up and the Tories have a strong platform and campaign, I see this as their best case scenario. 

There's still time for a major scandal or the economy to take a downturn, but assuming neither of those happen, the trickle of unforced Liberal errors won't be good for anymore than a Tory minority and probably not even that. Eyeballing the polls, it looks like the Tories will take back a decent number of seats from the Liberals in Anglo Canada, but the Liberals will more or less break even by swallowing the NDP and Bloc Quebecois in Quebec.

Someone needs to emerge as a clear runner up in Quebec to force a minority (assuming the Tories don't pick up the pace in the ROC). The Liberals will run the table in Quebec if the polls hold and the result is something like 45-15-15-15

With Andrew Scheer Stupidity as Conservative Party leader.  I actually wouldn't be surprised to see the Conservatives lose another 20-30 seats in the next election.

Possible but the Tories are more or less down to their core now so I still think modest gains are more likely than losses.  While harping on the scandal may seem silly and most may not care, generally that is what opposition parties do, their job is not to be nice to the government but to go after their weaknesses.  Governments never lose on single issues, its when enough baggage develops.  At the moment the Liberals need a lot more baggage to lose, but as an opposition your goal is to speed that up.  The real problem the Tories face is with the NDP weakness it will likely be a two way race so even if they won 130 seats (not saying they will not just saying what if) they would still remain in opposition and the Liberals even at that could still get a majority.

About half of the Conservatives 33 seats are in the 905 (I think four) and 12 or so are in South West Ontario (as I describe them, the London to Windsor region and the Kitchener to Niagara region.)  Of course the Conservatives have support in South West Ontario, but the are usually very competitive ridings, except for the most rural ridings.  Pierre Polievre's riding in Ottawa I think is winnable as well.

I think the NDP could knock of Brad Trost in Saskatchewan.

In British Columbia, the Conservative held ridings of Richmond, Cariboo-Prince George, Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo and maybe Langley-Aldergrove are all possible pick up opportunities for the Liberals.

I'm less knowledgeable about opportunities for the other parties in Alberta or Quebec.

Of course, this isn't to say that the Conservatives will lose any riding, but after the 2006 election, the Liberals continued to lose seats for a couple elections and I don't think by any means the Conservatives are down to just their core ridings.

Opportunities for non-Conservative parties in Alberta:

In Edmonton, the most realistic target would be Edmonton Griesbach for the NDP. Kerry Diotte of the CPC, who hasn't turned out to be the most effective/well-liked MP, only won the riding with 40% of the vote. Janis Irwin of the NDP had been seen as a possible winner here, but the LPC's surge later in the election led the vote to split 34% NDP and 22% LPC. The riding overlaps with provincial NDP strong areas as well, so if the progressive vote consolidates around the NDP in this riding in 2019, it would be winnable. The rest of Edmonton will be much trickier.

In Calgary, the most obvious target would be Calgary Confederation for the LPC. The LPC's Matt Grant only lost here by 2.5% to Len Webber in 2019, and like Diotte in Edmonton, Webber has not proved to be the most effective MP. Calgary Forest Lawn also has the potential to become competitive in the future, with longtime CPC incumbent Deepak Obhrai having only been able to take 48% of the vote in 2015, but will likely still go CPC in 2019. I would be very surprised if any of the remaining 6 Calgary ridings currently held by the CPC became competitive at any point soon.

[Njall]

Former Alberta Opposition Leader Brian Jean has resigned his seat in the legislature.

[Njall]

Weir is now listed as a Cooperative Commonwealth Federation member in the House of Commons.

[Njall]

Another name change for federal riding.. Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot will become Saint-Hyacinthe-Acton so the MRC d'Acton feels included and represented.

https://www.lavoixdelest.ca/actualites/nouveau-nom-meme-identite-40d819ad72b947ec0d620530d9ce48b7

The article says it's part of riding name changes wanted by MPs in bill C-402 that looks to be in Senate now and take effect in next election.
http://www.parl.ca/LegisInfo/BillDetails.aspx?Language=E&billId=9831496

Nova Scotia:
Cape Breton—Canso becomes Cape Breton—North Nova
South Shore—St. Margarets becomes South Nova
Sydney—Victoria becomes Cape Breton by the Sea

Quebec:
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis becomes Lévis—Bellechasse—Etchemins
Jonquière becomes Jonquière—Haut-Saguenay
Manicouagan becomes Côte-Nord
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot becomes Saint-Hyacinthe—Acton

Ontario:
Mississauga—Streetsville becomes Streetsville—Meadowvale—Lisgar
Nickel Belt becomes Greater Sudbury—Nickel Belt

Manitoba:
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley becomes Winnipeg West—Headingley

Saskatchewan:
Regina—Lewvan becomes Regina West

Alberta:
Calgary Signal Hill becomes Calgary West
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake becomes Fort McMurray—Lac La Biche—Cold Lake

British Columbia:
Burnaby South becomes Burnaby—Douglas
Langley—Aldergrove becomes Langley—West Abbotsford
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon becomes Abbotsford—Mission—Fraser Canyon


While looking for C-402 I came across another riding name change but it's not at the same legislative stage.  C-377 would change Châteauguay—Lacolle to Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville.

http://www.parl.ca/LegisInfo/BillDetails.aspx?Language=E&billId=9096762

Most of these are terrible, but I'm glad to see the undoing of the dumb idea of listing the names within a riding name alphabetically in Quebec.

Those Nova Scotia names are AWFUL!

What is it with our government and calling every non-Halifax mainland riding _____ Nova?! Cape Breton-Canso, Sydney-Victoria and South Shore-St.Margaret's are all all accurate names for the places that people actually use in real life. Also, Cape Breton By The Sea sounds like a lame tourist slogan. Next redistribution I'm making a submission protesting these stupid, godawful names.

I’m not a fan of the inconsistencies in the name changes in Calgary and Mississauga. For Calgary, Signal Hill was never the best name, but it was a lot more descriptive than some of the other riding names the commission came up with, like Calgary Rocky Ridge or Calgary Skyview (both are named after small, relatively insignificant communities in the ridings). At least with Signal Hill, the name had a historical connection to the name of the prominent hill in the rough centre of the riding on which the community of Signal Hill is no built. It makes no sense to revert to a directional name only for Signal Hill but not for many of the other ridings in the city. Similarly for Mississauga, someone with local knowledge may be able to correct me on why it’s appropriate, but it strikes me as odd that now one of the six ridings there will omit the word Mississauga for no apparent reason.

Sounds like Kinder Morgan will go ahead with rumours the federal government will buy out the pipeline.

 https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/feds-to-announce-tuesday-morning-that-trans-mountain-moving-forward-1.3949175

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-05-29/canada-said-likely-to-buy-full-trans-mountain-pipeline-project-jhr1as22?__twitter_impression=true

I’m not a huge fan of putting tax dollars towards this, but if this is what it’s come to, then so be it at this point. We need this pipeline built.

Shameful. Government shouldn't waste out money in Alberta's vanity project.

Seriously, “Alberta’s vanity project”? That’s incredibly dismissive of the importance of this project. Alberta, and Canada, lose out on billions of tax dollars and economic activity in the absence of greater access to tidewater for our natural resources. And economically speaking, we need to have the ability to sell to more markets than only that of the US. Kinder Morgan has toiled, deservedly, for years going through the nevessary approval processes and doing their due diligence, but having gone through these steps, they deserve better than to have their project essentially held hostage by local and provincial governments in BC.

It’s attitudes like this which stoke feelings of western alienation here in Alberta. And I’m saying that as one who has always said rolled my eyes whenever someone has tried to claim that the eastern provinces don’t care about Alberta. I still don’t believe that, but having seen sentiments like this expressed by several of those from the other side of the country with no understanding of our dire need for more pipelines to tidewater, I have a much better understanding of where those feelings of western alienation come from.

[Njall]

Noticed this on Twitter: Manitoba MLA and former MP has taken over the fledgling Manitoba Party, apparently without the knowledge of the party’s Board

[Njall]

https://twitter.com/MercedesGlobal/status/1047567275816050690

This move has a similar effect as Notley's tbh. They're still going ahead with their "made in Manitoba" $25/tonne carbon tax, which will be above the federal standard until 2020.