I'm not sure what you guys are on about.
Yeah, polls 3+ years out are not super predictive. And yes, polls were off by a lot in 2020.
BUT, a H2H poll between Biden and Trump and this point is probably a better indicator of where the country is at than any presidential poll this far out in the entirety of US history. Because this poll basically tells us that nothing has changed. People who voted Biden will vote Biden again. People who voted Trump will vote Trump again. January 6th and Trumps deranged rantings about election fraud has not changed a thing. Most of us who accurately recognize what the GQP is about these days already knew this. Trump could rape a baby and eat it afterwards on live TV and he'd lose a point or two at worst. We are dealing with a complete cult here. The only solution is for every rational person to join behind the democrats until this cult is defeated. I don't care if you are hard left or hard right. As long as you recognize the madness that the current GQP is, you have a moral obligation to help save democracy, because true unfettered fascism is the alternative right now.
So those on the hard right, who want a closed border, oppose covid restrictions (2020 specific), want a low tax and regulation economy, oppose gun control, want more backing of the police, etc. etc. are supposed to vote for Democrats because ... Jan 6? Because a fringe of Trump's supporters invaded and vandalized a building? I know the Democrats love to talk about Republicans who only care about "culture war" issues but this is what only caring about culture war issues on the left looks like.
I would also recommend reading some books on fascism, while you're at it. Calling Republican Party proposals fascist is as absurd as calling Democratic Party proposals communist.
It is true that these people you speak of will not be quickly switching their support to the Democrats. But if the legacy of 1/6 and the Big Lie and QAnon keeps conservative-leaning people who reluctantly voted from trump for turning out for him again in 2024, that will make a difference in the swing states. A head-to-head poll showing depressed trump support is a good sign that some of the 75 million might stay home next time.
