DanielX
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,126
Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -4.70
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« on: November 17, 2008, 03:33:50 PM » |
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« edited: November 17, 2008, 04:41:11 PM by DanielX »
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Hard to say, really - its too soon to see if, for example, Jindal is presidential material or not.
I'm going to propose that, in 2012, there will be 3 major wings to the party:
1. The Religious Right: you know them, all god and glory, strong on so-called "Family Values". Huckabee and Palin seem to be their favorites so far; Jindal may end up here.
2. The Establishment: Older School Republicans mixed in with the remnants of the neocons. Tend toward corporate-conservative on economics, tend rightwards on social issues (but not nearly as much as the Religious Right) and generally active on foreign policy. Romney seems to be their big candidate, but someone else may come up. Pawlenty may go here, I'm not sure.
3. The Libertarian-Conservatives: Big fiscal conservatives, who vary on social issues and are usually more isolationist - really don't get along that well with the Religious Right. Paul isn't likely, as he's very old. I'll suggest either Gary Johnson (former Gov. of New Mexico), Mark Sanford (Gov. of South Carolina), and Jeff Flake (Rep. from, I think, Arizona) as appealing to them, the latter 2 blending enough to be acceptable to 1/2.
Strangely enough, these are mutated forms of the same 3 branches the GOP had back in the 1970s - Reagan and Gingrich were the two who managed to get all three together. Which is why some people talk about Gingrich as a 2012 candidate despite him being 'old hat'. Johnson is also kind of old hat as well, but he stands out as being an effective libertarian-ish governor of the most populist state in the southwest.
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