I'm basically thinking about general trends, like Minnesota to Republicans and the Southwest and Florida to Democrats over the last few elections.
Swap New Hampshire and Maine District 2 to the Democrats. Otherwise, this is a reasonable 'Democrats win' scenario. For a 'Democrat landslide' scenario, Ohio, Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and North Carolina go Democrat. For a 'Republicans win' Scenario, Florida, Michigan, and Arizona go Republican. For a 'Republican landslide' scenario, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, and Pennsylvania also go Republican.
In short, Ohio, Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Arizona, New Mexicao, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, and Pennsylvania will be swing states.
