538 Model Megathread (user search)
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  538 Model Megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 86026 times)
JRP1994
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Posts: 2,048
« on: July 21, 2016, 10:44:19 AM »
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 21, 2016, 10:28:20 AM
Polls plus is a proven failure. I'll take the bettors consensus over that at this point, and I find them to be really irrational and uninformed/out of touch generally

No. Different polls plus than the primary model.

Note: polls plus is identical to the model that called 49/50 in 2008 and 50/50 in 2012.
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JRP1994
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Posts: 2,048
« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2016, 10:47:42 AM »
Also, when the polls-plus was wrong in the primary, it was usually due to underestimating Trump, rather than being too bullish on his chances.
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JRP1994
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Posts: 2,048
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2016, 06:59:28 AM »
Another huge difference is that Silver's model assumes that the states move together and do not act totally independent of each other. If Trump gains in North Carolina, the model assumes that he also makes some gains in Virginia, unless/until there's polling evidence to contradict that. Not the case with other models.
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JRP1994
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Posts: 2,048
« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2016, 05:53:59 PM »
Who said that Nate Silver had turned into a partisan GOP hack now that the FiveThirtyEight model has Clinton as a 75% or better favorite?
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