FiveThirtyEight Update: GOP still slight favorite to win Senate

[JRP1994]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-gop-senate-forecast/

[JRP1994]

Sure, sure. Just like Brazil were favorites to win the World Cup, Nate.

I thought we had all agreed to toss 538 into the dustbin of history after their World Cup debacle.

Soccer ≠ elections

[JRP1994]

Here's my question: Have Senate projections ever overestimated DEMOCRATS? Because I vaguely remember the Republicans being slight favorites to hold the Senate in 2006 (they lost it), Republicans were supposed to hold MN in 2008 (lost), win NV/CO in 2010 (lost), and win ND/MT in 2012 (lost). I can't think of an instance when it was widely projected/opined by the pundits that a Democrat would win, then they didn't.

Of course, there's no guarantee this will continue to hold in 2014 if it is true. Just something to consider.

Georgia 2002

[JRP1994]

It's obvious from reading this thread who understands statistical probability and who doesn't.