http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/08/upshot/mary-landrieus-very-difficult-re-election.html?_r=0"To win in 2014, with lower black turnout likely, Ms. Landrieu cannot afford any additional decline in her support among white voters. But 2014 promises far more challenging conditions, and her losses among white voters could easily surpass those from 2008, especially if one assumes that she was near her ceiling in the New Orleans area. Holding onto her territory will be hard enough. For instance, Ms. Landrieu easily won Jefferson Parish, encompassing most of New Orleans’s suburbs, which never voted for Mr. Clinton or President Carter, and which never previously came close to supporting Ms. Landrieu.
All considered, it is unclear whether there is still a path for her to reach 50 percent — and while a third-party candidate might allow her to squeak by in another state, Louisiana’s runoff system requires her to clear 50 percent to win re-election.
The limited polling data confirms that 2014 is not 2008. The only live interview surveys contacting voters with cellphones are from Southern Media and Opinion Research, which found Ms. Landrieu with just 41 percent of the vote in November, and from The New York Times/Kaiser Family Foundation, which found Ms. Landrieu at 42 percent. If there’s still a way for Ms. Landrieu to win, she has a long way to go."
