This is incredibly bad for Republicans trying to win the state in 2016. Ohio hasn't gone for any Presidential nominee by more than 7% since 1988 -- and then for the Republican in a blowout. Know well: Hillary Clinton has no connection to Ohio.
How bad is it for Republicans if they lose Ohio by 9% or more? They probably lose Indiana as well.
2008 Obama National Margin: +7.26%
2008 Obama Ohio Margin: +4.58% (R+2.68%)
2008 Obama Indiana Margin: +1.03% (R+6.23%)
In 2008, Indiana was 3.55% more Republican than Ohio.
2012 Obama National Margin: +3.86%
2012 Obama Ohio Margin: +2.97% (R+0.89%)
2012 Obama Indiana Margin: -10.18% (R+14.01%)
In 2012, Indiana was 13.12% more Republican than Ohio. Averaging those two together, as is the standard procedure for calculating PVI, we conclude that
Indiana is 8.36% more Republican than Ohio.So, this poll would suggest that, assuming 1) that all else is held constant, and 2) that Ohio and Indiana swing together, then it is feasible that she could win the Hoosier State.
