Seems about right. Though Virginia will drop off as the number 1 state in a few cycles as it transitions to a strongly democratic state.
I don't see VA becoming strong anything. It's matched the popular vote the last two times and likely will be the same way in 2016. Obama was an incredible candidate for Virginia so the trend has been skewed.
Virginia in the past 20 years:
1992: R+8
1996: R+6
2000: R+5
2004: R+3
2008: >R+1
2012: 0
Extending the trend (assuming the same trend-line):
2016: D+1
2020: D+3
2024: D+5
2028: D+6
2032: D+8