Both were very popular in 2004, and had some policies in common. Putin would probably win strong Dem areas for simply not being Bush, not having started two wars and being perceived as a reformer of a corrupt political system (at the time
). Republicans would mostly vote for Bush, but Putin would fare better in some strongholds because he would split the "oil vote" (he transformed Russia into an oil superpower). He would also be seen as strong, and not the "Massachusetts liberal" John Kerry was made out to be.
It's kind of a contest between two types of Republicans: Bush, the patriotic, down-to-earth, wartime incumbent President; and Putin, the ambitious, progressive conservative, if somewhat "elitist" reformer. Let's say Putin picks a conservative Democrat as his running mate so he attracts some of both major party bases. I'm going to go with an extremely close race resulting in an EC tie (mostly because i can't decide who actually wins
):
George W. Bush/Dick Cheney: 269Vladimir Putin/Ben Nelson: 269Since both houses were controlled by Republicans, Bush would be voted in as President by the House and Cheney by the Senate.
