Will the Democratic ticket ever be two white men again?

[kcguy]

Just doing some statistics:


Assume white men make up 35% of the adult American population.

If two American adults are picked at random, the odds of them both being white men is about 12%.

If a different duo of people is chosen randomly for five events, then the odds of at least one duo containing two white men is just under 50/50.


Comparing random groups to reality:
1.  White men probably make up a majority of Republican voters, so conversely white men probably make up less than 35% of Democratic voters.  RESULT:  Lower odds.
2.  White men still hold a disproportionate amount of power.  (I haven't counted the number of white male senators, but I'm guessing it's still over 75%.)  RESULT:  Higher odds.
3.  Candidates are sometimes repeated over multiple elections.  RESULT:  Lower odds.


Overall, I think the above three mostly cancel each other out.  I would guess that it's quite a bit more likely than not that at least one Democratic ticket before 2050 will contain two white men.