If NAFTA were up for a vote today

[kcguy]

I was looking at the numbers for the NAFTA vote back in 1993, and I was surprised at how much Bill Clinton owed its passage to the Republican minority.

Republicans sided overwhelmingly with Bush and Clinton, with Senators voting 34-10 in favor and House members 132-44 in favor.

Despite Clinton, however, Democrats remained skeptical, fearing the giant sucking sound of jobs going to Mexico (to paraphrase Ross Perot).  Senators narrowly voted 29-27 against, while House members voted against by a wider 157-102 margin.

So here's my question:

Suppose that an agreement, to further open the borders with Mexico, were up for a vote today in Congress.  Would the parties still vote the same?  Would Democrats still be opposed?  Would they be more opposed than 20 years ago?  Would Republicans still vote 3 to 1 in favor?  How do you think the various presidential candidates would come down on the issue?

[kcguy]

It would be a situation similar to the TPP most likely.

You can see that I've stopped paying attention to actual policy issues.

So, based on the numbers I can find, the parties have become even more polarized.  Republicans were somewhat more in favor of TPP than they were for NAFTA in 1993 (Senators 48-6 in favor, House members 191-55 in favor), while Democrats are MUCH more opposed (Senators 32-14 opposed, House members 160-28 opposed).

I'm actually somewhat surprised about both parties.  For the Republicans, Donald Trump comes across as the voice of everything Pat Buchanan put in motion a generation ago, so I can't imagine him being pro-trade any more than Buchanan was.  This is a nice reminder that Trump doesn't necessarily represent the mainstream of the Republican party.

I'm also somewhat surprised about the Democrats.  I wasn't sure what to expect.  If anything, I would have thought that the Gephardt/labor wing was weaker now than a generation ago.  I never would have expected a change in the opposite direction to such a large degree.