The UK General Election Prediction Thread

[kcguy]

I have predictions of another kind, although mine are way too obvious:

1.  Someone will say something like "Remember, in 1992, the exit polls famously declared Labour the winner."  I have two problems with this:
     a.  This person won't mention that there have been 4 elections since then, nor will anyone do an analysis of how accurate the exit polls have been since then.
     b.  If you look at the video, you'll note that the first BBC announcement in 1992 actually predicted that the Conservatives would be the largest party, not Labour.  (Although, to be fair, the exit poll did completely miss that the Conservatives would get anywhere near a majority.)

2.  The news media will spend much of the first hour reporting on some voting irregularity, such as missing postal votes or people being turned away when the polls close.  The media will go on and on about how this can't be allowed to happen in a functioning democracy, and then they will promptly forget about the topic for the next five years.

3.  Someone--probably Shirley Williams, if she's still alive--will confidently predict that their party is winning in Cardiff Central, Buckingham, Dundee East, Ohio, and Mars.  Some of these predictions will be slightly optimistic.

4.  Politicians of all parties will attempt to explain how it's morally impossible for their opponents to form a government.  In particular:
a.  Labour politicians and their allies will demand to know how David Cameron can possibly stay in office one minute longer, when the voters have clearly rejected both him and his coalition partners by robbing him of his majority.
b.  If Conservatives get the most votes and/or seats of any single party, they and their allies will demand to know how Labour could even consider trying to form a government when the people clearly prefer the Conservatives.
c.  Whatever the placement of the top two parties, I predict that those on the Right will demand that Ed Milliband immediately denounce any possibility of any agreement, formal or informal, with any party that might threaten to break up the United Kingdom at any unnamed date in the future.  (Unless, of course, the Conservatives think they have a chance of forming a coalition with the SNP, at which point they will recognize how wonderful the Scottish people and culture are, mentioning how they look forward to working with the duly elected representatives of a people who are such an integral part of the UK.)