Like-a-Fishhook Election Tracking

[Јas]

Updated count to Sensei...
(With bonus tutorial notes!)

Total Valid Votes: 12
Quota: 3

Count 1

Xahar	3
AndrewCT	2	(2 #2 preferences)
Sensei	2	(1 #2 preference)
DWTL	2	(0 #2 preferences)
Colin	1	(3 #2 preferences)
Jas	1	(2 #2 preferences)
Al	1	(1 #2 preference)
benconstine	0	(1 #2 preference)
HappyWarrior	0	(2 #3 preferences)
Evilmexicandictator	0	(1 #8 preference)
CultureKing	0	(1 #9 preference)

Notes
Evilmexicandictator is included on my list due to his writing-in of himself.

On the first count, candidates are ordered by the number of #1 preferences they receive. Where this is tied, they are ordered by the #2 preferences, and so on. (From Count 2 onwards, where candidates are tied on vote totals, they are ordered by their rank on the previous count.)

Xahar reaches the quota and is deemed elected.

With no surplus available to distribute, the lowest placed candidates are eliminated.
benconstine, HappyWarrior, Evilmexicandictator and CultureKing are all eliminated on 0 votes - changing nothing.
Al is therefore eliminated as the next lowest placed remaining candidate and his vote will be redistributed in Count 2.


Count 2

Xahar	Elected
AndrewCT	3	(+1)
Sensei	2
DWTL	2
Colin	1
Jas	1
Al	0	(-1)

Notes
Lief's vote for Al flows to his #3 preference (AndrewCT) because his #2 preference (Xahar) is already deemed elected.
Andrew reaches the necessary 3 votes and is deemed elected.

That leaves 4 candidates for 3 seats, and no surpluses to redistribute, so the highest 3 remainign candidates are deemed elected without reaching the quota.

Therefore, on current figures, the 5 Senators-elect would be:
#1 Xahar
#2 AndrewCT
#3 Sensei
#4 DWTL
#5 Colin

Persons confused are encouraged to either (i) ask questions or (ii) remain confused. It's your choose!

[Јas]

Soem other ways of looking at things...
(just for fun! )

(To Sensei)

Candidate	Mean	Median	Mode
Xahar	4.18	4	1
AndrewCT	4	4	6
Sensei	4.58	4.5	4
DWTL	6.64	8	9
Colin	3.83	3.5	2
Jas	3.75	3	3
Al	5.08	5	5
benconstine	6.67	8	8
HappyWarrior	6	6.5	7
Evilmexicandictator	8	8	8
CultureKing	9	9	9

Notes
Xahar and DWTL benefit slightly because they received no preference whatever from bullmoose.
EMD and CultureKing have so far only received a single preference apiece so they are only included for completeness.

Mean
#1 Jas
#2 Colin
#3 AndrewCT
#4 Xahar
#5 Sensei

Median
#1 Jas
#2 Colin
=#3 Xahar
=#3 AndrewCT
#5 Sensei

Mode
#1 Xahar
#2 Colin
#3 Jas
#4 Sensei
#5 Al

[Јas]

Updated count to GM3...

Total Valid Votes: 13
Quota: 3

Count 1

Xahar	3	(2 #2 preferences)
Sensei	3	(1 #2 preference)
AndrewCT	2	(2 #2 preferences)
DWTL	2	(0 #2 preferences)
Colin	1	(3 #2 preferences)
Jas	1	(2 #2 preferences)
Al	1	(1 #2 preference)
benconstine	0	(1 #2 preference)
HappyWarrior	0	(2 #3 preferences)
Evilmexicandictator	0	(1 #8 preference)
CultureKing	0	(1 #9 preference)

Notes
Evilmexicandictator is included on my list due to his writing-in of himself.

On the first count, candidates are ordered by the number of #1 preferences they receive. Where this is tied, they are ordered by the #2 preferences, and so on. (From Count 2 onwards, where candidates are tied on vote totals, they are ordered by their rank on the previous count.)

Xahar and Sensei reach the quota and are deemed elected.

With no surplus available to distribute, the lowest placed candidates are eliminated.
benconstine, HappyWarrior, Evilmexicandictator and CultureKing are all eliminated on 0 votes - changing nothing.
Al is therefore eliminated as the next lowest placed remaining candidate and his vote will be redistributed in Count 2.


Count 2

Xahar	Elected
Sensei	Elected
AndrewCT	3	(+1)
DWTL	2
Colin	1
Jas	1
Al	0	(-1)

Notes
Lief's vote for Al flows to his #3 preference (AndrewCT) because his #2 preference (Xahar) is already deemed elected.
Andrew reaches the necessary 3 votes and is deemed elected.

That leaves 4 candidates for 3 seats, and no surpluses to redistribute, so the highest 3 remaining candidates are deemed elected without reaching the quota.

Therefore, on current figures, the 5 Senators-elect would be:
#1 Xahar
#2 Sensei
#3 AndrewCT
#4 DWTL
#5 Colin

[Јas]

Updated count to DWTL...

Total Valid Votes: 19
Quota: 4

Count 1

DWTL	4
Xahar	3	(5 #2 preferences)
Sensei	3	(3 #2 preference)
Colin	2	(3 #2 preferences, 3 #3 preferences)
AndrewCT	2	(3 #2 preferences, 1 #3 preference)
Al	2	(1 #2 preferences)
CultureKing	2	(0 #2 preferences)
Jas	1
benconstine	0	(1 #2 preference)
HappyWarrior	0	(5 #3 preferences)
Evilmexicandictator	0	(1 #8 preference)

Notes
*Evilmexicandictator and CultureKing are included due to writing-in themselves in. All other write-ins are being ignored, lest the persons affected declare they are running.

*On the first count, candidates are ordered by the number of #1 preferences they receive. Where this is tied, they are ordered by the #2 preferences, and so on. (From Count 2 onwards, where candidates are tied on vote totals, they are ordered by their rank on the previous count.)

*DWTL reaches the quota and is deemed elected.

*With no surplus available to distribute, the lowest placed candidates are eliminated.
benconstine, HappyWarrior, Evilmexicandictator and CultureKing are all eliminated on 0 votes - changing nothing.

*Jas is therefore eliminated as the next lowest placed remaining candidate and his vote will be redistributed in Count 2.


Count 2 (Distribution of Jas's vote)

DWTL	Elected
Xahar	3
Sensei	3
Colin	3	(+1)
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	2
Jas	0	(-1)

Notes
Gustaf's vote for Jas flows to his #2 preference (Colin) who rises to a total of 3 votes.
With no new candidates elected and still no surplus to redistribute, the next lowest ranked candidate (CultureKing) is eliminated.


Count 3 (Distribution of CultureKing's votes)

DWTL	Elected
Sensei	5	(+2)
Xahar	3
Colin	3
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	0	(-2)

Notes
CultureKing's votes (those cast by Alcon and CultureKing) both transfer to their #2 preference, Sensei.
Sensei therefore passes the quota and is deemed elected with a surplus of 1.
As the surplus can affect the count (i.e. get someone elected and/or save the last placed candidate from elimination) it will be distributed next.


Count 4 (Distribution of Sensei's surplus)

DWTL	Elected
Sensei	Elected	(-1)
Xahar	3
Colin	3.4	(+0.4)
AndrewCT	2.4	(+0.4)
Al	2.2	(+0.2)

Notes
Sensei's surplus of 1 (with the quota set at 4) means that each of the 5 votes will be transfered at a value of 1/5, i.e. 0.2 each.

Sensei's surplus can only be distributed to either Xahar, Colin, AndrewCT or Al - whichever of them is ranked highest on each of the ballots.

Bacon King and Alcon next preferenced Colin, so he gains 0.4
Sensei and GM3 next preferenced AndrewCT, so he also gains 0.4
CultureKing next preferenced Al, so he gains 0.2

Nobody else is elected and no surplus is available to distribute. With only 4 candidates for the 3 remaining seats, the lowest placed candidate (Al) is eliminated and the remaining 3 deemed elected without reaching the quota.

Result
#1 DWTL
#2 Sensei
#3 Xahar
#4 Colin
#5 AndrewCT

[Јas]

Updated count to SPC...

Total Valid Votes: 20
Quota: 4

Count 1

DWTL	5
Xahar	3	(5 #2 preferences)
Sensei	3	(3 #2 preference)
Colin	2	(3 #2 preferences, 3 #3 preferences)
AndrewCT	2	(3 #2 preferences, 1 #3 preference)
Al	2	(1 #2 preferences)
CultureKing	2	(0 #2 preferences)
Jas	1
benconstine	0	(1 #2 preference)
HappyWarrior	0	(5 #3 preferences)
Evilmexicandictator	0	(1 #8 preference)

Notes
*Evilmexicandictator and CultureKing are included due to writing-in themselves in. All other write-ins are being ignored, lest the persons affected declare they are running.

*On the first count, candidates are ordered by the number of #1 preferences they receive. Where this is tied, they are ordered by the #2 preferences, and so on. (From Count 2 onwards, where candidates are tied on vote totals, they are ordered by their rank on the previous count.)

*DWTL surpasses the quota and is deemed elected with a surplus of 1.
As the surplus can 'materially affect the progress of the count' (i.e. get someone elected and/or save the last ranked candidate from elimination) it will be distributed next.


Count 2 (Distribution of DWTL's surplus)

DWTL	Elected	(-1)
Xahar	3.6	(+0.6)
Sensei	3
Colin	2
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	2
Jas	1
benconstine	0.2	(+0.2)
HappyWarrior	0
Evilmexicandictator	0
Non-Transferable	0.2	(+0.2)

Notes
Given his surplus of 1 (with the quota at 4), the 5 votes for DWTL are transfered at a value of 0.2 each.
PiT, Smid and DWTL all preferenced Xahar as #2, so he gains 0.6
Inks preferenced benconstine #2, so he gains 0.2
SPC did not preference any other candidate, so 0.2 is non-transferable.

Following the redistribution, no new candidates were elected and no surpluses are available to distrbibute. Therefore we must start eliminating candidates. EMD and HappyWarrior are eliminated on 0 votes, changing nothing. Therefore next to be eliminated is benconstine.


Count 3 (Distribution of benconstine's vote)

DWTL	Elected
Xahar	3.6
Sensei	3
Colin	2.2	(+0.2)
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	2
Jas	1
benconstine	0	(-0.2)

Notes
ben's 0.2 comes from the vote of Inks, which now flows to his #3 preference, Colin.
With nobody elected, Jas is now eliminated.


Count 4 (Distribution of Jas's vote)

DWTL	Elected
Xahar	3.6
Colin	3.2	(+1)
Sensei	3
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	2
Jas	0	(-1)

Notes
Gustaf's vote for Jas flows to his #2 preference (Colin).
With no new candidates elected and still no surplus to redistribute, the next lowest ranked candidate (CultureKing) is eliminated.


Count 5 (Distribution of CultureKing's votes)

DWTL	Elected
Sensei	5	(+2)
Xahar	3.6
Colin	3.2
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	0	(-2)

Notes
CultureKing's votes (those cast by Alcon and CultureKing) both transfer to their #2 preference, Sensei.
Sensei therefore passes the quota and is deemed elected with a surplus of 1.
As the surplus can affect the count (i.e. get someone elected and/or save the last placed candidate from elimination) it will be distributed next.


Count 6 (Distribution of Sensei's surplus)

DWTL	Elected
Sensei	Elected	(-1)
Xahar	3.6
Colin	3.6	(+0.4)
AndrewCT	2.4	(+0.4)
Al	2.2	(+0.2)

Notes
Sensei's surplus of 1 (with the quota set at 4) means that each of the 5 votes will be transfered at a value of 1/5, i.e. 0.2 each.

Sensei's surplus can only be distributed to either Xahar, Colin, AndrewCT or Al - whichever of them is ranked highest on each of the ballots.

Bacon King and Alcon next preferenced Colin, so he gains 0.4
Sensei and GM3 next preferenced AndrewCT, so he also gains 0.4
CultureKing next preferenced Al, so he gains 0.2

Nobody else is elected and no surplus is available to distribute. With only 4 candidates for the 3 remaining seats, the lowest placed candidate (Al) is eliminated and the remaining 3 deemed elected without reaching the quota.

Result
#1 DWTL
#2 Sensei
#3 Xahar
#4 Colin
#5 AndrewCT

[Јas]

Maybe this system isn't so bad after all, I've still got a decent amount of supporters yet to vote and I'm comfortably ahead for the moment.  It's amazing that I am leading right now with I believe 0 2nd prefs, and 1 3rd pref

I make your distribution to date: 5-0-1-0-0-0-1-4-4-3.
Where 5 is your total #1 preferences and 3 your total #10 preferences.
It's the most divisive spread of any candidate with almost no middle-ground.

At this point, you're only a small number of #1 preferences from a safe seat.

[Јas]

Early Analysis
The top 5 have been fairly stable recently, with DWTL and Xahar consolidating their positions most strongly.

DWTL tops the list thanks to a series of #1 preferences from the Atlasian hard right. His preference spread is interesting as he is clearly the most divisive figure on the ballot - he has received 5 #1s, but 11 preferences from #8-10 and hardly anything in between. Despite the very strong negatives, it shouldn't take too many more RPPites to ensure DWTL is there or thereabouts at the final count.

Xahar has attracted probably the most politically varied assortment of voters amongst his top preferences, doing particularly well with those who favour DWTL #1, but also creditably with the Atlasian left. With the SDP largely yet to turn out, Xahar's prospects must be seen as strong.

Sensei has a mix of strong and moderate support, with very little by way of negatives so far (these negatives correlating strongly with DWTL supporters). So far, it's the NLC left and JCP second preferences which seem to be propping up this campaign. With a lot of competition for the NLC vote and the JCP likely to need all their eggs in CultureKing's basket, Sensei is unlikely to be safe for a seat in this election, but will almost certainly be in with a shout until the end.

Colin is arguably the flagship NLC candidate who so far has receievd no strongly negative votes and a relatively even spread of high-medium preferences from across the spectrum. The traditional NLC vote is where Colin's core support lies but if it prooves too thinly spread the general goodwill of the remainder of Atlasia will ensure he is should at least be in strong contention.

AndrewCT is, like Colin, living off of the core NLC vote. Just how many people Atlasia's largest party is capable of supporting effectively will be tested in this election. In many ballots, he is preferenced behind Sensei or Colin, and one feels that unless he can muscle his way into contention for these votes, he may not in the end be returned.

Al has been lodged in 6th spot for some time now, just shy of the winning post. His highest preferences so far are unsurprisingly from the solid Atlaisan left, though he clearly has goodwill from the centre and soft-right. Al will require SDP support and a good showing from the solid left to gain a seat.

CultureKing has lost opportunities having to run via a write-in campaign. Thankfully for him however, his core JCP support (which was all he had on his previous run) probably won't need to see his name on the ballot to give him their thumbs up. With plenty more JCPers out there, CK's slow start camouflages the true potential of the JCP. Following the loss of the Pacifican seat from JCP hands, this election will tell whether or not the JCP remain a force in federal Atlasian politics.

Jas though exhibiting minimal negatives (what there is being from some DWTL supporters) seems to lack any base of solid support on which to gather the all important #1 preferences. Jas's votes are clustered between preferences #2-5 scoring highest amongst moderates of both sides. Though sweeping the Swedish vote, it will be an uphill battle if Jas is to be elected.

benconstine is challenging DWTL for having received the strongest negatives of all. 11 of the 20 votes cast so far have ranked him at #8 or 9 - coming from voters across the political spectrum. His highest preferences so far being a #2 from Inks and a #3 from AndrewCT. It would be a miraculous recovery for ben to salvage a Senate seat from this position.

HappyWarrior seems neither hated nor loved by the Atlasian electorate. He has received no #1 or #2 votes, but similarly has received few strongly negative preferences. A majority of his highest preferences have so far come from DWTL supporters, are are unlikely to have the coattails to help HW get anywhere this time out.

[Јas]

I think you overestimate the JCPs love for CK, remember his defection is the reason they lost the Pacific senate seat for the first time I can remember.

He's already landed Alcon's vote and the endorsement of the JCP leader:

yay

cultureking4senate

Despite the vote for Torie, and what I would consider a voting record which is probably more centrist than the JCP as a whole; all the indications, so far, are that the JCP will give him their full support.

[Јas]

Count 3 (Distribution of benconstine's vote)

benconstine can still receive votes at that point? Really?

Yeah, I think so. (Though obviously, it's a weird scenario which I should imagine has never been tested in actual RL PR-STV situations.)

Under my reading of the PR Act, eliminations are only allowed where no surplus exists which could materially affect the progress of the count. Such a surplus technically existed, so no elimination could be carried out. Given that he wasn't eliminated, he was a candidate for election and therefore eligible to receive votes.

I never countenanced the scenario really arising, obviously, but I don't think it should be a problem. Just a quirk..

Not that it matters in this case, but it theoretically might if a party's bullet voters make up considerably more than a quota...

Yeah. I suppose so...that'd be interesting

[Јas]

HappyWarrior seems neither hated nor loved by the Atlasian electorate. He has received no #1 or #2 votes, but similarly has received few strongly negative preferences. A majority of his highest preferences have so far come from DWTL supporters, are are unlikely to have the coattails to help HW get anywhere this time out.

Another question another PR:
If the results hold and Xahar and myself are the first two elected, with HappyWarrior garnering 5 3rd prefs so far (and presumably more given the amount of RPPs left to vote) can that push him over the top?

Hugely unlikely, unless I'm greatly underestimating the total votes yourself and Xahar will receive; or underestimating the number of #1 preferences HappyWarrior will end up with.

You can't transfer any more than your surplus. So far in this election, nobody has had a surplus greater than 1 vote.

[Јas]

Updated count to Verily...

[This count contains just about anything that a PR-STV election count can throw at you. It should be a useful guide for anyone seeking to get to grips with the system. As is usual, any questions are welcome.]

Total Valid Votes: 21
Quota: 4

Count 1

DWTL	5
Xahar	3	(5 #2 preferences)
Colin	3	(3 #2 preferences, 3 #3 preferences)
Sensei	3	(3 #2 preferences, 0 #3 preferences)
AndrewCT	2	(4 #2 preferences)
Al	2	(1 #2 preferences)
CultureKing	2	(0 #2 preferences)
Jas	1
benconstine	0	(1 #2 preference)
HappyWarrior	0	(5 #3 preferences)
Evilmexicandictator	0	(1 #8 preference)

Notes
*Evilmexicandictator and CultureKing are included due to writing-in themselves in. All other write-ins are being ignored, lest the persons affected declare they are running.

*On the first count, candidates are ordered by the number of #1 preferences they receive. Where this is tied, they are ordered by the #2 preferences, and so on. (From Count 2 onwards, where candidates are tied on vote totals, they are ordered by their rank on the previous count.)

*DWTL surpasses the quota and is deemed elected with a surplus of 1.
As the surplus can 'materially affect the progress of the count' (i.e. get someone elected and/or save the last ranked candidate from elimination) it will be distributed next.


Count 2 (Distribution of DWTL's surplus)

DWTL	Elected	(-1)
Xahar	3.6	(+0.6)
Colin	3
Sensei	3
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	2
Jas	1
benconstine	0.2	(+0.2)
HappyWarrior	0
Evilmexicandictator	0
Non-Transferable	0.2	(+0.2)

Notes
Given his surplus of 1 (with the quota at 4), the 5 votes for DWTL are transfered at a value of ¹/₅ each.
PiT, Smid and DWTL all preferenced Xahar as #2, so he gains 0.6
Inks preferenced benconstine #2, so he gains 0.2
SPC did not preference any other candidate, so 0.2 is non-transferable.

Following the redistribution, no new candidates were elected and no surpluses are available to distrbibute. Therefore we must start eliminating candidates. EMD and HappyWarrior are eliminated on 0 votes, changing nothing. Therefore next to be eliminated is benconstine.


Count 3 (Distribution of benconstine's vote)

DWTL	Elected
Xahar	3.6
Colin	3.2	(+0.2)
Sensei	3
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	2
Jas	1
benconstine	0	(-0.2)

Notes
ben's 0.2 comes from the vote of Inks, which now flows to his #3 preference, Colin.
With nobody elected, Jas is now eliminated.


Count 4 (Distribution of Jas's vote)

DWTL	Elected
Colin	4.2	(+1)
Xahar	3.6
Sensei	3
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	2
Jas	0	(-1)

Notes
Gustaf's vote for Jas flows to his #2 preference (Colin) who is deemed elected with a surplus of 0.2
As the surplus is enough to save the bottom ranked candidate from elimination, it will be distributed.


Count 5 (Suppy fun happy distribution of Colin's surplus)

DWTL	Elected
Colin	Elected	(-0.2)
Xahar	3.61	(+0.01)
Sensei	3
AndrewCT	2.095	(+0.095)
Al	2.095	(+0.095)
CultureKing	2

Notes
Fractional surpluses are probably the most difficult aspect of PR-STV counting.
As before, surpluses are transfered at a reduced value (Surplus/Candidate's Total Vote).
Therefore each of Colin's 4 full votes is transfered at a value of ¹/₂₁ of a vote.
The 0.2 of a vote (that of Inks) is transfered at ¹/₁₀₅ of a vote.

Taking each vote individually:
bullmoose: Flows to #2 preference AndrewCT
Colin: Skips #2 preference, Jas (already eliminated); Flows to #3 preference, Al
Verily: Flows to #2 preference AndrewCT
Gustaf: Flows to #3 preference, Al
Inks: Skips #4 preference, Jas (eliminated); flows to #5 preference, Xahar

Therefore, AndrewCT and Al both gain ²/₂₁ of a vote each, and Xahar gains ¹/₁₀₅ of a vote. As allowed in the Act, I've used decimals in the count above and rounded off for presentation.

Nobody is elected, so CultureKing is eliminated.


Count 7 (Distribution of CultureKing's votes)

DWTL	Elected
Colin	Elected
Sensei	5	(+2)
Xahar	3.61
AndrewCT	2.095
Al	2.095
CultureKing	0	(-2)

Notes
CultureKing's votes (those cast by Alcon and CultureKing) both transfer to their #2 preference, Sensei.
Sensei therefore passes the quota and is deemed elected with a surplus of 1.
As the surplus can affect the count (i.e. get someone elected and/or save the last placed candidate from elimination) it will be distributed next.


Count 8 (Distribution of Sensei's surplus)

DWTL	Elected
Colin	Elected
Sensei	Elected	(-1)
Xahar	3.61
AndrewCT	2.695	(+0.6)
Al	2.495	(+0.4)

Notes
Sensei's surplus of 1 (with the quota set at 4) means that each of the 5 votes will be transfered at a value of ¹/₅, i.e. 0.2 each.

Sensei's surplus can only be distributed to either Xahar, Colin, AndrewCT or Al - whichever of them is ranked highest on each of the ballots.

Bacon King's vote skips Colin and Jas, flowing to AndrewCT
Alcon's vote skips Colin and Jas, flowing to Al
Sensei's vote flows to AndrewCT
CultureKing's vote flows to Al
GM3's vote flows to AndrewCT

Therefore, AndrewCT gains 0.6, and Al gains 0.4

Nobody else is elected and no surplus is available to distribute. With only 4 candidates for the 3 remaining seats, the lowest placed candidate (Al) is eliminated and the remaining 3 candidates deemed elected without reaching the quota.

Result
#1 DWTL
#2 Colin
#3 Sensei
#4 Xahar
#5 AndrewCT

[Јas]

Jas, thanks for covering this Election, much appreciated, when I still do not know how the PR system of electing Senators works.

No problem. The best way to understand PR-STV is by example. Hopefully these electoral snapshots should prove useful in that regard for all those interested. At the first PR-STV election, there was some confusion as to the counting method. Lewis was spot-on each time then, so I've decided to jump onto his bandwagon here and hopefully keep everyone prioperly informed of the standings.

Not to mention, I like your analysis on the candidates and which sort of Atlasian voter is voting for them, I didn't expect that.

It's a fascinating election. Now about 21 votes in, we're between a third and half way to the final vote totals, with still 7 (or 8, if you count myself) candidates in with a reasonable shot of getting elected. Having 10 candidates to preference gives us a lot of information about voter preferences, that we don't get very often in Atlasia where it's usually a 2 or 3 man race. Some of the choices are very interesting, just thought I'd comment a bit about it.

[Јas]

How is a vote without a first preference counted?

It's a judgment call for the SoFA. If he can make a 'reasonable determination' of the intent of the voter, then he should count the vote in that manner. (per the Consolidated Electoral Reform Act).
Also see Akno21 v Fritz: "For any vote to be valid, there must be no doubt as to the intent of the voter."

[Јas]

It is fascinating to see how the votes spill all over the place. There are wheels within wheels going on here.   Jas did a yeoman's job try to make some sense of it all, but it is an uphill battle I think to do that.

Still open for questions!
Like most things, with a bit of experience it should become clearer and more understandable.

[Јas]

Alright I have a question:

What do you with DCUnited's vote?  I looked it over a few times and it looks like she does not have a 1st preference, a 2nd-9th are there, but no first.  Does 2nd automatically become first and so on?

I presume that's why Mikado asked his question, and I really don't have much to say beyond what I said above. It is a judgment call for the SoFA.

If I were SoFA, I wouldn't count it because I don't know what she intended. But that's hypotethical and there's no point second guessing the SoFA.

[Јas]

     I'd like an update. Even if the update isn't totally up-to-date, it would be nice to see figures for where the election stands.

Unfortunately my spreadsheet is on another computer - so I won't be able to give a proper update until tomorrow morning.

Lewis's first post in this thread is updated to PBrunsel. Since then 4 new votes, 2 for Xahar, 1 for Al, 1 for DWTL. The quota is now 8.

I'd say DWTL's seat is now probably safe. Colin, CultureKing, Xahar and Al are favourites to take the other 4, though Sensei is still in the running and HappyWarrior has come from nowhere to being a dark horse. Andrew and myself are rank outsiders at this point. If benconstine takes a seat then we will have proof that miracles do happen.

[Јas]

Just a few comments...

First of all, turnout has been exceptional! It's been rare in recent times for Senate elections to get 60+ votes cast - so that's great to see. I have little doubt that that is at least partially down to STV ensuring that we have another down to the wire election where every vote matters. We have a 10 candidate election running and even at this late stage 9 of them are still in with a shout.

Before any votes were cast, claims were made that the STV system would cement the dominance of the NLC and of Northeasterners within the legistaure. These claims have been blown away with this election. Though 2 NLC seats looks very likely, the RRP, the SDP and the JCP are all likely to be in the next Senate. And when it comes down to it, it's likely only 1 Northeasterner will be elected today - indeed, 4 regions look set to have their citizens chosen.

Finally, on a personal note, many many thanks to the Jas voters out there. This past day has seen a surprising turnaround for my fortunes and I'm very grateful for your support. The post-election Jas HQ party was looking like it was going to be a lonely drab affair yesterday morning! My 'campaign' has not been a vigorous one, indeed, when I put my name down for the ballot I did so just for a bit of electoral fun and to pad out the ballot with another choice for voters. It looks likely at this stage that I shall fall just short this time, but I am heartened by the support nonetheless and will, of course, be delighted to return to the Senate to debate and argue and legislate as best I can for you all - should the votes shake out that way. In the meantime, I'm enjoying the election and the counting and I hope you all are too.

Now, back to your regular programming...

[Јas]

Updated count to King...

Total Valid Votes: 61
Quota: 11

Count 1

DWTL	10
CultureKing	8
Al	7	(15 #2 preferences)
Xahar	7	(11 #2 preferences)
Jas	6	(10 #2 preferences)
Colin	6	(8 #2 preferences)
Sensei	6	(6 #2 preferences)
AndrewCT	5	(4 #2 preferences)
HappyWarrior	5	(1 #2 preference)
benconstine	1
Evilmexicandictator	0	(1 #4 preference)

Notes
*Evilmexicandictator and CultureKing are included due to writing-in themselves in. All other write-ins are being ignored, lest the persons affected declare they are running.

*On the first count, candidates are ordered by the number of #1 preferences they receive. Where this is tied, they are ordered by the #2 preferences, and so on. (From Count 2 onwards, where candidates are tied on vote totals, they are ordered by their rank on the previous count.)

*No candidate reaches the quota so EMD and benconstine are eliminated and the vote redistributed.


Count 2 (Distribution of benconstine's vote)

DWTL	10	(+1)
CultureKing	8
Al	7
Xahar	7
Jas	6
Colin	6
Sensei	6
AndrewCT	5
HappyWarrior	5
benconstine	0	(-1)

Notes
benconstine's vote for himself was transfered to his #2 preference: DWTL.
SWTL reaches the quota and is deemed elected.
With no surplus available to redistribute, HappyWarrior is eliminated.


Count 3 (Distribution of HappyWarrior's vote)

DWTL	Elected
Sensei	9	(+3)
CultureKing	8
Xahar	8	(+1)
Al	7
Jas	6
Colin	6
AndrewCT	5
HappyWarrior	0	(-5)
Non-Transferable	1	(+1)

Notes
HW's votes transfered as follows:
HappyWarrior, Sensei and Meeker's votes went to Sensei.
Andy Jackson's vote went to Xahar.
Keystone Phil only preferenced HW, so his vote is non-transferable.

AndrewCT is eliminated.


Count 4 (Distribution of AndrewCT's vote)

DWTL	Elected
Sensei	10	(+1)
CultureKing	8
Xahar	8
Al	8	(+1)
Colin	8	(+2)
Jas	7	(+1)
AndrewCT	0	(-5)

Notes
Andrew's votes transfered as follows:
Conor Flynn's vote went to Sensei
hughento's vote went to Al
Andrew's and fezzy's vote went to Colin
PolNut's vote went to Jas

Jas is eliminated.


Count 5 (Distribution of Jas's vote)

DWTL	Elected
Sensei	11	(+1)
Colin	11	(+3)
Al	10	(+2)
Xahar	9	(+1)
CultureKing	8
Jas	0	(-7)

Notes
Jas's votes transferred as follows:
PolNut's vote went to Sensei - getting him to the quota
Gustaf's, afleitch's and TCash's votes went to Colin - getting him to the quota
Jas's and ilikeverin's votes went to Al
Lewis's vote went to Xahar

Sensei and Colin are deemed elected by reaching the quota, but have no surpluses to distribute.
With only 3 candidates for 2 seats, and no votes available to distribute further, the bottom candidate (CultureKing) is eliminated and Al and Xahar are deemed elected without reaching the quota.

Result
#1 DWTL
#2 Sensei
#3 Colin
#4 Al
#5 Xahar

[Јas]

I see now that Lewis beat me to this update (by quite a distance) *waves fist* - thus reducing my chances of winning the Speed Election Counting event in London 2012!

[Јas]

Not hard to add a single vote that changes virtually nothing.

Is my count correct so far?

We are in quite absolute agreement

I haven't checked through the full 61 to see if everyone is truly eligible but I imagine someone would have raised something about such by now if that was the case.

[Јas]

I think Lewis made an error in his tally - I'm double checking but *I think* it works out as:
#1 DWTL
#2 Jas
#3 Al
#4 Sensei
#5 CultureKing

[Јas]

Jas's Provisional Tally

Total Valid Votes: 66
Quota: 12

Count 1

DWTL	10
Al	9	(16 #2 preferences)
CultureKing	9	(1 #2 preference)
Xahar	8
Jas	7
Colin	6	(8 #2 preferences)
Sensei	6	(6 #2 preferences)
AndrewCT	5	(4 #2 preferences)
HappyWarrior	5	(1 #2 preference)
benconstine	1
Evilmexicandictator	0	(1 #4 preference)

Notes
Evilmexicandictator and CultureKing are included due to writing-in themselves in. All other write-ins are being ignored, lest the persons affected declare they are running.

On the first count, candidates are ordered by the number of #1 preferences they receive. Where this is tied, they are ordered by the #2 preferences, and so on. (From Count 2 onwards, where candidates are tied on vote totals, they are ordered by their rank on the previous count.)

No candidate reaches the quota so EMD and benconstine are eliminated and the vote redistributed.


Count 2 (Distribution of benconstine's vote)

DWTL	11	(+1)
Al	9
CultureKing	9
Xahar	8
Jas	7
Colin	6
Sensei	6
AndrewCT	5
HappyWarrior	5
benconstine	0	(-1)

Notes
benconstine's own vote transfers to his #2 preference, DWTL.
No candidate is elected, so the next elimination is HappyWarrior.


Count 3 (Distribution of HappyWarrior's vote)

DWTL	12	(+1)
Al	9
CultureKing	9
Xahar	9	(+1)
Sensei	8	(+2)
Jas	7
Colin	6
AndrewCT	5
HappyWarrior	0	(-5)
Non-Transferable	1	(+1)

Notes
NB: This is where I believe Lewis's count is in error (specifically, the vote of Meeker).
HW's votes transfer as follows:
Meeker's vote goes to his #2 preference, DWTL - bringing him to the quota and so election.
Andy Jackson's vote goes to Xahar
HappyWarrior's and MasterJedi's votes both go to Sensei
Keystone Phil only cast a preference for HW, so his vote is non-transferable

DWTL is elected, but has no surplus, so we proceed to the next elimination.


Count 4 (Distribution of AndrewCT's vote)

DWTL	Elected
Al	10	(+1)
CultureKing	9
Xahar	9
Sensei	9	(+1)
Jas	8	(+1)
Colin	8	(+2)
AndrewCT	0	(-5)

Notes
Andrew's votes tarnsfered as follows:
hughento's vote transferred to Al
Conor Flynn's vote transfered to Sensei
Polnut's vote transferred to Jas
AndrewCT's and fezzy's votes transferred to Colin

Nobody else elected, we proceed to the next elimination.


Count 5 (Distribution of Colin's vote)

DWTL	Elected
Jas	12	(+4)
Al	11	(+1)
Sensei	11	(+2)
CultureKing	9
Xahar	9
Colin	0	(-8)
Non-Transferable	1	(+1)

Notes
Colin's votes transfer as follows:
bullmoose's, Verily's, Colin's and Frodo's votes transfer to Jas - reaching him the quota and election.
Dibble's vote transferred to Al
AndrewCT's and fezzy's vote transfer to Sensei
MAS's vote is untransferable.

With no surpluses to distribute and only 4 candidates for 3 remaining seats, the bottom ranked candidate (Xahar) is eliminated and the remainder deemed elected according to their rank.

Result
#1 DWTL
#2 Jas
#3 Al
#4 Sensei
#5 CultureKing