The commission seemed, in many cases, to make as few changes as possible.
Yep, much like last time. They're a conservative bunch alright.
Many people expected a 5-seat constituency to be created in County Kerry, perhaps with some territory in districts otherwise in Counties Cork and/or Limerick. A 4-seat Kerry constituency would function as a 4-seater in the next election should the current Ceann Comhairle (speaker), John O'Donoghue, stand for automatic reelection. But O'Donohue's constituency of Kerry South remains a 3-seater, and the constituency only grows so I can't see any other constituency as proposed being deemed the successor to the current Kerry South with respect to rule whatever it is that has the Ceann Comhairle automatically returned unless he or she steps down. So Kerry South will be a 2-seater in the next election unless O'Donoghue decides to retire (could Gully Foyle or Jas speculate on how likely that is?).
I don't see O'Donoghue retiring. Certainly there's no suggestion or expectation that he will. It's a possibility, but one would have to feel a distinctly unlikely one.
A 5-seater Kerry formulation was an option, but would likely have caused significant problems in sorting out Limerick. Plus the Commission have clearly established themselves as not indisposed to 3-seaters (unfortunately).
The many please from Leitrim residents to end the split of their county fell on deaf ears, and the line dividing the county between Sligo-North Leitrim and Roscommon-South Leitrim was moved southeast from the River Shannon and Lough Allen to a more arbitrary boundary on seemingly largely dry land to bring the Sligo seat closer to the ideal population per TD.
The Commission received more submissions regarding Leitrim (all of which urging reunification) than on anything else. Did them no good at all. Unifying probably would have led to significant redraws but would have been doable. Reinforces the commissions
lazy conservative nature.
The commission did address the concerns of residents of Drogheda and its environs by expanding the 4-seat Lough constituency south into Drogheda-oriented area in County Meath and making it a 5-seater.
Yep. Not alot wrong with that call.
With the European Parliament constituencies, the commission decided to keep the four-constituency model in spite of the Republic of Ireland losing a seat, and kept the old (and still official) County Dublin in one slightly (12%, practically exactly) overpopulated constituency. The 16.76% underpopulated North-West constitency, however, was brought closer to the national average population per MEP by adding the counties of Longford and Westmeath from the existing East constituency. From the current 13-seat situation the only constituency where the deviation from the national average population per MEP will grow is Dublin, and that only from 9% (under) to 12% (over), so that's good. I would have preferred, however, dividing the existing East constituency among the Dublin (renamed East or South-East, perhaps renaming South South-West in the latter case) and North-West constituencies, with North-West becoming a four-seater and a new 5-seater being formed (South fit too well to tweak).
We're going to have to try and get you onto the Commission. (Though not for your constituency naming skills
)
In most parts of the U.S. that would be the case, but I could see a decent contest for the non-Fianna Fáil seat in Kerry South, although Fine Gael's Tom Sheahan would seem to be the favorite. He might get a lot of Jackie Healy-Rae's vote if he doesn't run (or after elimination) and after it goes to the winning Fianna Fáil candidate and after the second Fianna Fáil candidate is eliminated - it would probably go to Sheahan over Breeda Moynihan Cronin is what I'm saying, although it could be relatively dilluted by then.
In an effective 2 seater, without remarkable shifts in the numbers, there's no real way I can see any result other than 1 FF; 1 FG. Healy-Rae is completely sunk in this scenario - he was one of the luckiest to get elected this year as it was (maintaining very marginal leads over both Moynihan Cronin [Lab] and Fleming [FF] at crucial stages). His share of the vote has fallen again (In 1997 he had 0.81 of a quota; by 2002, he had fallen to 0.68; this year it was 0.61). All that and he was almost certain to retire in favour of one of his Councillor sons (probably Michael), neither of which could really hope to hold onto enough of their father's votes to be competitive. The prospect of a 2-seater could well be enough to deter them from even running.
The growth of FG here has been remarkable and largely unexpected (though one particular commentator *cough* happened to see this coming in amongst an ocean of deluded predictions earlier this year). In 1997, Moynihan Cronin [Lab] (same as above) outpolled both FG candidates together. But while her share of the vote has been fairly stable (1997, 0.56 of a quota; 2002, 0.58; 2007, 0.54), FG's combined vote has leaped forward (1997, 0.55; 2002, 0.71; 2007, 1.0).
The only way Labour could get competitive would be if they could inherit the vast bulk of Healy-Rae's votes. While they probably should outdo FG in this regard, it's too big a task. FF will get the lion's share, not that they can hope for both seats, but it could well be enough to see Labour into 4th place behind FF's 2nd candidate.
BTW, you clearly have a remarkable knowledge of/interest in Irish politics and political history for someone from so far beyond these shores. Dare I ask where the interest in this little corner of the world originates?
