Ireland General Discussion

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February or March? Can he really last that long? Looks unlikely after today...

Indeed. I'd say quite improbable, but not necessarily impossible.

How do those two things square?

They square by getting the Greens to cave.

And why wouldn't a general election after the enactment of the new budget not be earlier than February?  How long does it take to pass a budget, assuming there are enough votes to do so (big if now, I know)?

Though the budget is presented in December, very, very little of it comes into law straight away. The rest has to go through the general legislative process of committees and so forth which takes considerable time. Last year’s wasn’t finally passed until March.

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Yesterday's headlines...

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This afternoon the Government published it’s (I presume IMF-approved) 4 Year Plan on fiscal adjustments. It targets a €15bn adjustment between 2011-14 (which is pretty much the size of the adjustment that has been made 2008-10). €6bn is targeted for the upcoming budget.

Cuts across all departmental expenditure. Notable reductions in social welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay and pensions, contribution to higher education all cited. Increases to income taxes, VAT, water charges, property taxes all there as well as closing off many tax credits and such.

Fun.

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Today is by-election day in Donegal SW.

Turnout expected to be low (the by-election having been made quasi-redundant what with the General Election effectively in the offing). Turnout there in the last General was 66%.

Counting begins tomorrow morning at 9, result should be in by late afternoon. If the media/pollsters are correct and Doherty is well ahead - then we should have a fair indication of that by late morning.

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Some suggestion in the press today that both Healy-Rae and Lowry might in fact vote for the budget (which would restore to the Government a notional 3 vote majority 82-79 [at least until the by-election result is in]).

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Counting in Donegal SW begins in an hour.

Only solid info at the moment is that the islands (voted on Monday) had a turnout of 43%.


Rumours though of an internal party (Labour) exit poll; liable to be rubbish of course, but hey, what else is there to report...
Doherty (SF) 33%
Ó Domhnaill (FF) 21%
McBrearty (L) 19%
O'Neill (FG) 18%
Pringle (i) 8%
Sweeney (i) 1%

While Doherty would still be favoured on such a return - such numbers could be good enough for McBrearty to sneak it, but then maybe that's exactly what a rumoured Labour exit poll would show.

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Meanwhile, some more amusement...

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Paddy Power has decided to pay out on a Doherty win.

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Early estimate at turnout 50-55%

Early boxes (21%) indicate...
34% Doherty
25% O'Neill
17% Ó Domhnaill
13% Pringle
10% McBrearty
  1% Sweeney

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72% of boxes

40% Doherty (SF)
21% Ó Domhnaill (FF)
19% O'Neill (FG)
10% Pringle (i)
10% McBrearty (L)

Doherty uncatchable if these sorts of numbers hold up.

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FG represntative on local radio in Donegal concedes that Doherty will win.

88% of boxes...

39.7% Doherty (SF)
21.0% Ó Domhnaill (FF)
18.3% O'Neill (FG)
10.4% McBrearty (L)
10.3% Pringle (i)

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Complete Tally

39.7% Doherty (SF)
21.2% Ó Domhnaill (FF)
18.4% O'Neill (FG)
10.2% McBrearty (L)
10.1% Pringle (i)

Might not even need to go to a 2-person count.

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Looks like the one constituency poll wasn't far off the mark.

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Given these sorts of numbers, 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG seems to be the most likely result from DSW in the upcoming General.

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Donegal South West By-Election

Turnout: 56.03% (34,908)

Spoiled Votes: 484
Total Valid Poll: 34,424

			Change
	Count 1		on GE07
Doherty (SF)	13,719	39.9%	(+18.7%)
Ó Domhnaill (FF)	7,344	21.3%	(- 29.2%)
O'Neill (FG)	6,424	18.7%	(-   4.3%)
Pringle (i)	3,438	10.0%
McBrearty (L)	3,366	9.8%	(+  7.0%)
Sweeney (i)	133	0.4%

Sweeney eliminated - second count should be along post-haste.

SF on course for first by-election win since 1925.
FF + FG + Lab <50%
Labour result historically very good for them in DSW, but quite a bit below expectations.

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I'm inclined to blame Labour's relatively poor result on -

A) Uh, it's Frank McBrearty. Although to be fair I doubt the Labour bench is very strong in Donegal.

Labour have precicely zero bench strength in Donegal (like a great deal of Connacht-Ulster, and the failure to attempt to address that will cost them in the General.)

Given the local election results, there's no doubt that McBrearty was the only realistic pick for them - barring some newbie to politics.

B) More "left"-leaning and ex-FF voters flocking to the stronger candidate (Doherty, obviously).
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Nah, Donegal doesn't have left-leaning voters. SF voters there are republicans (like a great many of the FF voters there), not socialists.

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Donegal South West By-Election

Quota: 17,213

	Count 1	Count 2
Doherty (SF)	13,719	13,736	(+17)
Ó Domhnaill (FF)	7,344	7,358	(+14)
O'Neill (FG)	6,424	6,442	(+18)
Pringle (i)	3,438	3,491	(+53)
McBrearty (L)	3,366	3,375	(+  9)
Sweeney (i)	133		(-133)
Non-Transferable		22	(+22)

McBrearty eliminated.

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So, Doherty is elected and makes the Dáil maths that bit more unpalatable for the Government ahead of the 7 December budget. The election of Doherty is also potentially significant in that it puts the creation of a Dáil 'technical group' back in prospect. Having a party of 7 TDs or more allows certain privileges in terms of speaking rights, questioning and motions in the house. SF are in talks with independents McGrath (Dublin NC) and O'Sullivan (Dublin C) on forming such a grouping (one existed in the 2002-07 Dáil between SF, Greens and some independents). If they are sucessful, then SF should be able to get their proposed motion of no confidence on the Taoiseach in play.


Back on the budget...
Whether or not Healy-Rae and Lowry are likely to vote for or against or not vote at all on the budget is now an open question. Despite their strong comments on withdrawing their support, media commentary suggests they have a more malleable position than those statements would lead one to believe. The only pertinant comments from Lowry since have been that he remains "highly unlikely" to vote for the budget - though he has also refused comment on more than one occasion.

Healy-Rae might be an easier buy for ther Government, judging by recent statements by his son (and prospective candidate to replace his father at the upcoming General) Michael.

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Somewhat positive comments by Joe Behan (i-Wicklow) on the 4 year plan may indicate he is also poachable for the Government.


Anyway, until something more concrete, below are my new Dáil/Government support numbers...

Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	70
Fianna Fáil (without whip)	3	(Devins, Scanlon, McGrath)
Fine Gael	51
Labour	19
Labour (without whip)	1	(Brougham)
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	5	(+1)
Independents	7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	3	(-1) (Dublin S, Waterford, Donegal NE)

Government	80	(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney)
Opposition	82	(FG + Lab + unwhipped Lab +SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan, Grealish, Healy-Rae, Lowry)
Majority	-2

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On the EU/ECB screwing us and why I'd vote for the IMF were they to contest the General Election

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I'm moving Healy-Rae and Lowry back into the pro-Government camp. They've voted with the Government on a number of technical issues despite their previous statements, and today's Irish Times report seems fairly clear that there is a much greater likelihood that they will now support the budget rather than vote against.

Lowry is pissed though, he wants to vote against and is seeking to blame FG and Labour for refusing to be constructive.

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And, speaking on behalf of his father...

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Undoubtedly, Michael Lowry is the most powerful TD in Ireland right now.


Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	70
Fianna Fáil (without whip)	3	(Devins, Scanlon, McGrath)
Fine Gael	51
Labour	19
Labour (without whip)	1	(Brougham)
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	5
Independents	7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	3	(Dublin S, Waterford, Donegal NE)

Government	82	(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney, Lowry, Healy-Rae)
Opposition	80	(FG + Lab + unwhipped Lab + SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan, Grealish)
Majority	2

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Dáil schedule mitigates against election until March? - journal.ie

FG and Labour publish their budget proposals - journal.ie

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Minister for Foreign Affairs, Micheál Martin (FF-Cork SC) becomes the second Minister to effectively declare interest in seeking the FF leadership.

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- Irish Times

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So we can count on the Greens to vote against the 5-week Christmas recess discussed in your link, right?  (:sarcasm:)

Quite.


In other news today, Lucinda Creighton (FG-Dublin SE) has told the Sunday Business Post that she will abstain on the budget vote if necessary to help get it passed.

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- Reuters

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Michael Lowry (i-Tipperary S) and Jackie Healy-Rae (i-Kerry S) will vote for the budget.

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- Irish Times

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Budget delivered this afternoon.

Cuts to child benefit, jobseekers, carers and disability allowances, and public sector pensions. Minimum wage cut. Widening of tax net, increases in various tax rates, reductions of tax credits. etc

By the looks of things this evening, the Government won it's first budget related vote 82-78. No official record available yet, but the surprise is that Joe Behan (i-Wicklow), who left FF early in this Dáil, apparently voted with the Government.