Ireland General Discussion

[Јas]

Top (just before I'm off):

Found this interesting blog post on the 'labour surge' in the polls and shows really how the difficult it is for the party to do as well as the polls predict.

http://politicalreform.ie/2010/06/18/where-bloweth-the-gilmore-gale-precedents-from-1992-and-1969/#more-566

Following on from this...
Labour to field 65 candidates at next election in hope of being biggest party (Irish Times)

Will try and take a look at some point as to the Jas recommendation for candidate numbers.

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So Jas, how bad for Cowan and Fianna Fáil is Cowan's recent interview gaffe?  (I'm not very clear on what happened, as I don't have the media player needed to play the interview in the Morning Ireland link, and I was too lazy to go through the steps in adding it.)

It was very, very bad for Cowen. Heck, it was being linked with a market spike against Irish bonds. And got plenty of play in the international press – ‘Irish leader drunk’ obviously plays pretty well.

Cowen's position as leader seemed potentially in jeopardy for at least a few hours that day - but though it led to a series of media pieces questioning the leadership, there's no sign of any internal FF heave, yet.

Brian Lenihan is the presumptive next FF leader - but uncertainty about his health (he was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer last Christmas) complicates matters. Plus, he is, of course, increasingly tied to our economic performace. The recent extra bailouts to Anglo-Irish will have taken some more of the shine away from his standing.

And is talk in Fine Gael circles (somewhat echoed by Labour) of a general election being called before Christmas wishful thinking or is there a more credible chance of the government falling this fall/early winter than you thought there was earlier in the year?

The only way, IMO, there’s a general election before Christmas is if the Government can’t get the budget (due Nov/Dec) passed. A €3 billion adjustment is expected - not easy.

If FG actually wanted to try and force an election, they’d push for the Dublin South by-election to be called. They haven’t. (It troubles me that despite FF bankrupting the country for the second time in my lifetime, I still regard FG as a bigger joke than FF.)

I suspect both FG and Labour would prefer the Government present another adjustment budget before any election anyway, as they’re none too keen on making those decisions themselves.

The various politico voices in the media think an election will be upon us by next summer – after the 3 by-elections presumed to be for the spring. We’ll see.

Assuming a general election isn't called before then, are there any new hints on the part of the government as when the by-elections to fill the three current Dail vacancies will be held?  And might Fine Gael want to go ahead and move the writ for Dublin South so trim the government majority by one?  (Did George Lee resign from Fine Gael before resigning as a TD, and if so would that give the government an excuse to go against custom and oppose a Fine Gael motion for a writ in Dublin South?)

Next spring is presumed likely - unless the High Court actually grants Sinn Féin’s application to force the Donegal by-election (which will probably cost the Government more money to argue than it would to actually hold the elections *sigh*).

I think George offered a simultaneous resignation, though it shouldn’t matter to the point you raise. Though at this point it wouldn’t surprise me if the Government tried to prevent such a FG motion on whatever spurious grounds as might pop into their heads (it’s not like they’ve presented any coherent argument why they haven’t held the others so far.)

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(I'm not very clear on what happened, as I don't have the media player needed to play the interview in the Morning Ireland link, and I was too lazy to go through the steps in adding it.) 

Cowen Interview - YouTube

No sign of the media letting go of this story yet, despite nothing substantively new to report.
Today's angle - Brian Lenihan forced to officially deny that he's going to challenge for the leadership.

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Odds on Sinn Fein polling ahead of Fianna Fail some time before the election? (Just kidding... sort of.)

Negligible, <1%.

Sinn Féin are probably the most consistent party in Irish polling over the past few years.
Since 2006, their min-max polling wise has been 6-11% - no other party has such a narrow range. For 2010 alone, the range is 6-10%, with the 6 an apparant outlier appearing once only, compared to 8 results in the 8-10% range. (It might be noted that, IMO, polling generally overstates SF's support by a couple of points.)

Despite economic catastrophe, SF's numbers haven't budged. So it seems reasonable to assume that if SF are to outpoll FF, FF will have to do all the work.

FF's min-max for 2010 is 17-27% - the 17 also looks like an outlier, the next lowest polling number for them this year was 22%. Another tough budget on the way can't help, but it's hard to countenance that FF haven't already hit the bedrock. Falling to single digits (which is presumably roughyl what is needed for SF to overtake) is still some way off.

That said, I'd expect new polling out soon and if sufficiently terrible, Brian Cowen's position would be rather tenuous. Were he to go, who knows what happens next.

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There's a Red C poll due out on Sunday, AFAIK, and I wouldn't be surprised if FF hit a new low - although I agree that they're probably close to their floor as is.

FF's lowest polling to date has been 17, which they've gotten twice. Both times an MRBI poll (Sept '09 and the last one, June '10).

Their lowest ever RedC rating is 21 (May '09). That figure could well be in danger.

For a possible record low, the next MRBI poll (which must be soon-ish?) is the better bet - in 2009/10 (so far) on average MRBI have rated FF about 4.5 points lower than RedC.

The more interesting question is how Labour and Fine Gael are doing - I wouldn't expect a repeat of the Irish Times poll showing Labour in first place, but I wouldn't rule it out, either.

I'll also bet against that being the case in any immediate RedC polling - but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see MRBI reporting that that remains the case.

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Adrian Kavanagh makes some predictions based on the poll - pegging Labour for largest party on 59 seats.

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Noel Grealish (i-Galway W) has withdrawn his support for the Government, over health cuts in Galway.

The loss of his support reduces the Government majority to 4 (per my numbers below). In theory, the vote can be bought back by protecting Galway from the cuts - but this isn't likely.

Up until now I would have wavered on the question of whether the Government could run to 2012, this defection tips the balance in my mind - the Government would do very well to still be in place a year from now.


Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	70
Fianna Fáil (without whip)	4	(Devins, McDaid, Scanlon, McGrath)
Fine Gael	51
Labour	19
Labour (without whip)	1	(Brougham)
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Independents	7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	3	(Donegal SW, Dublin S, Waterford)

Government	83	(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney, Healy-Rae, Lowry)
Opposition	79	(FG + Lab + unwhipped Lab +SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan, Grealish)
Majority	4

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Oh, and South Tipperary's Mattie McGrath - who lost the FF whip over the stag-hunting bill - has  withdrawn his support over health cuts.

The government's now got a hilariously thin majority of 2.

Given that Deputy McGrath has a history of being all talk and no action (with the exception of the vote that lost him the whip), I'll await some actual parliamentary votes before making judgment on this. Indo are reporting that he'll vote on a case-by-case basis. We'll see.

The decision by Fine Gael to force stricter pairing rules though may well force his hand one way or the other fairly soon.

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If the government falls, how long before new elections are held

Where a Taoiseach ceases to retain the support of a majority in the Dáil he must either (i) resign or (ii) ask the President to dissolve the Dáil forcing a general election. (The President may decline a dissolution where a Taoiseach has lost his majority - but no President has yet done so, and it would be exceedingly unlikely to happen in current circumstances.)

A general election must be held no more than 30 days after the dissolution of the Dáil.

and the new government is sworn in?

The outgoing Government remains in place until a new Taoiseach is elected by the new Dáil.

There is discretion as to when the new Dáil convenes after the election, but it's usually about 2-3 weeks after the election. (The date is effectively set by the outgoing Government in the order dissolving the Dáil.)

Electing a Taoiseach is one of the first orders of business for a new Dáil. He will usually appoint his cabinet within about 24 hours of his election.

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I could see a nightmare scenario where the bond markets panic during the transition and there's no effective leadership due to politics. This is really troubling.

Far be it from me to guess what the bond markets will do at any given moment, but would not the fact that Ireland doesn't need to go to the bond markets for funds until *I think* next June count for something?

The bond auctions being carried out (including tomorrow's) aren't strictly necessary in the short-term, so far as I'm aware. As much as anything it's the Government trying to prove that they don't fear the markets (even if they do/should).

[Јas]

Looks possible that both Sinn Féin and Fine Gael may put motions down today to move the writs for the 3 outstanding by-elections.

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Looks possible that both Sinn Féin and Fine Gael may put motions down today to move the writs for the 3 outstanding by-elections.

And indeed it is so. FG and SF have laid down joint motions for writs for the 3 vacancies in today's order of business. It seems quite clear that there is little or no prospect of the motions being carried.  


In what's probably more interesting news, someone crashed a cement truck into the gates of Leinster House (parliament buildings) this morning. The cement mixer bears the words "Anglo Toxic Bank" is huge red letters.

[Јas]

All three, ie including the FG one(s?) ?

Yeah, Dublin S (the FG one) is the first one up for discussion in about 75 mins time.
I understand at least one Government Minister has indicated that they won't pass.

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What's FF's bullcrap 'official' excuse for not calling the by-elections?

According to the Chief Whip, the only Government Deputy present for the debate last night:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Mmm.
Anyway, he informed the Dáil of the Government's intent to call the by-elections in the first quarter of next year.

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If this was any other political party, I'd be certain that Kenny was doomed. But it's Fine Gael, and I've assumed Kenny was a goner after the George Lee resignation, and after the previous MRBI poll, and the powerful gombeen wing of Fine Gael seem intent on sticking with Kenny.

But still, this result really is disastrous for FG, so it might be what finally topples Enda.

If wishing made it so.

I suspect Enda is saved by the fact that the poll is getting only a fraction of the attention it would normally get because of (i) the release of 2 other polls just days ago, but most importantly (ii) the much bigger story of the assessment of bank liabilities today - that's where the focus is.

Another thing about removing Kenny - who'd replace him? I don't know if Bruton would try again, and it's not like Fine Gael are going to go with Varadkar or someone else who's actually interesting...

Bruton or bust (i.e. keep Enda) methinks.

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could George Lee withdraw his resignation from the Dáil and be seated if he wanted to?

Nope

Or force the government to either seat him or approve a writ for a prompt by-election?

Shouldn't think so. It would require a strange turn-around from Lee and plenty of judicial creativity. I'd imagine public opinion wouldn't be on George's side either.

If the answer to both questions is no, which I expect it is, how does he likely feel about his decision to resign his seat (both his former constituents not having full representation and the government's now even narrower majority than when he left being one member larger than it would otherwise be)?  What is he up to now anyway?

He's back at RTÉ - on radio for the time being. And, of course, as an RTÉ journalist, he no longer has any political opinions...

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Surprise resignation!

Dr. Jim McDaid (unwhipped FF-Donegal NE) has resigned from the Dáil.

McDaid lost the FF whip in 2008 abstaining on a vote opposing the Government’s abandonment of the cervical cancer vaccine programme, decrying the move as a false economy. He’s been on record as favouring a General Election for some time. His letter last week to the Taoiseach, outlines his concerns. He believes the Government has not done enough to control the deficit – by, inter alia, insufficiently cutting public sector pay. He also favours cuts in minimum wage.

Despite his wish for significant deficit reduction, he has concurrently chastened the Government for failing to protect Letterkenny General Hospital from cutbacks.

Anyway, new Dáil numbers...

Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	70
Fianna Fáil (without whip)	3	(-1) (Devins, Scanlon, McGrath)
Fine Gael	51
Labour	19
Labour (without whip)	1	(Brougham)
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Independents	7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	4	(+1) (Donegal SW, Dublin S, Waterford, Donegal NE)

Government	82	(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney, Healy-Rae, Lowry)
Opposition	79	(FG + Lab + unwhipped Lab +SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan, Grealish)
Majority	3

The shaky majority gets even shakier.

[Јas]

What with the events of yesterday, I'm now doubtful that the by-elections will actually be called at all. While it's conceivable, to me (possibly alone), that FF could actually hold one of those Donegal seats, it's unlikely. And with no prospect of being able to run a minority administration, methinks a general election is now more likely than not next spring.

Of course, there's still the matter of trying to pass a budget before then (7 December). Failing that hurdle, a real possibility, could mean a Christmas election. Wouldn't they all love that...


By the by Kevinstat, related to your query on the piant incident, Harry McGee's blog gives a quick consideration to the Irish public's usually insipid approach to protest.

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Mr Justice Nicholas Kearns who has ruled today that the ongoing failure of the Government to call the Donegal SW is constitutionally unsound.

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, a by-election isn't necessarily imminant - but the judge has basically told the Government that holding out much longer isn't an option.

The Government response is that they are studying the decision.
Sinn Féin will again lodge a by-election writ for Donegal SW tomorrow.

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

- RTÉ report

One notes that a by-election must be held within 4 weeks of the writ being moved by the Dáil - so if tomorrow's motion is approved, the Donegal SW by-election would have to be held by 1 December.

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The judgment in Doherty v Govt of Ireland et al, wherein more than once Mr Justice Kearns accuses the government effectively of excessive hyperbole (). He came close to daring the Government to oppose a motion calling for the by-election.

J'approve.

Reportedly the Attorney General is briefing the cabinet this evening on the decision. I expect the Government to announce within 24 hours that they will be moving a writ themselves for the by-election.

In the longer term, I expect that the judgment will almost certainly lead to legislative change compelling a set maximum period for the filling of Dáil vacancies.

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I know you weren't expecting the ruling to go this way when I asked you earlier in the year.  Was there any time before the ruling came out today that you sensed it going the way it did, or was it a complete surprise?

Complete surprise to me. Strictly speaking of course, the court hasn't compelled the by-election - but the tone of the judgment is so strident, so damning of the Government, that it will have that effect.

The defiant reassertion of the judiciary's right to consider such matters and indeed to potentially direct how the Government act in the Dáil goes against the tide of judicial determinations on seperation of powers matters going back some time. I'm very pleasantly surprised.

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McDaid lost the FF whip in 2008 abstaining on a vote opposing the Government’s abandonment of the cervical cancer vaccine programme, decrying the move as a false economy. He’s been on record as favouring a General Election for some time.

How did he vote on the Fine Gael motions for writs for the then-three vacant seats a couple/few months ago?  Also Michael Lowry, who has (iirc) made similar statements regarding a General Election?  If they both voted no on all those writs and the earlier SF motion for a writ in Donegal SW, how does one reconcile that with their desire for a prompt General Election that would be more likely if difficult/impossible for the government to win by-elections were held or were going to be held because of a sucessfully moved writ?

I'd need to look up for certain, but I'm fairly sure both voted with the Government.

Off the top of my head, not sure about Lowry's previous comments on a general election - as to Lowry's position, this article sets it out as is - I think it's the first time he's staked out a position wherein he may oppose the budget.

As to the reconciliation you speak of - with regard to McDaid at least, he's conflicted between FF tribalist tendancies and that wish for a general election. His preference would have been for the party to want the election, rather than bring it on himself. Hence his decision to resign rather than simply leave FF and vote as an opposition TD - something that would have been more condusive to bringing about a general election sooner.

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As Ireland continues its record-breaking on the bond markets, best to distract oneself with a little psephology I think.

Below some previous election results in Donegal SW...

General Elections (1997-2007)

For almost all of it's existence, since it was reconstituted in 1981, DSW has returned 2 FF, 1 FG (the only exception was in 1997, when it was 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind - the one independent, Tom Gildea, being a signle-issue candidate, whose issue [I kid not] was TV masts).

	1997	2002	2007
Fianna Fáil	38	42	51
Fine Gael	23	25	23
Sinn Féin	-	11	21
Labour	4	3	3
Green	4	-	1
Ind/Other	31	19	1

Local Elections 2009

The Dáil constituency of Donegal SW comprises 3 local electoral areas (Glenties, Stranorlar and Donegal). Making one of those terribly unwise calculations, the combined results would be…

Fianna Fáil	29
Fine Gael	25
Sinn Féin	13
Labour	8
Indies	24

The Independents include people formerly of FF, FG and SF. Notable inclusion here is Seamus Ó Domhnaill, who topped the poll in Glenties as an Independent - having failed to get a FF nomination. His brother, Brian, is a FF Senator (appointed by the Taoiseach), and the favourite to be the FF candidate. The fall-out from that local election is what has prevented FF from settling on a candidate yet for this by-election. Adjusting the local election numbers for cases such as Ó Domhnaill gives numbers much more favourable to FF: 36-29-17-8-10.

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And the date is set... DSW will vote on Thursday, 25 November, exactly 3 weeks today.


For those interested in DSW's demography the Oireachtas Library have constituency profiles based on the last census (2006 - i.e. pre-economic apocolypse).

DSW is older than most parts as the young working-age population drifted elsewhere. For the same reason, DSW has lower educational attainment stats. Employment in 2006 was quite a bit below national average - I'll look at more up to date figures later. Fisheries more important here than most other places - Killybegs port is in DSW.

Obviously DSW is more Protestant than average and has more British citizens than many other places.