Redistricting...Ireland?

[Јas]

Depends a great deal on what happened to the home rule/independence movements and even then I couldn't say with any sort of certainty.

Pre-1918 o/c the island was strongly Nationalist with the exception of NE Ulster and the Trinity seats. IIRC, after the foundation of the Irish Parliamentary Party in 1882, Westminster elections here were effectively very simple matters with 80 something IPP MPs returned and the remaining 20-ish (?) Conservatives returned from NE Ulster and Trinity College (until the Unionists came about in 1905 when they simply took over those seats and took the Tory whip).

Pre-1982, the Home Rule League was much the same as the IPP in terms of electoral success, but had more competition from the Liberals splitting some seats allowing more Tories in. The last election when no Irish party won (or really contested I suppose) seats in Westminster was 1868, when the Liberals won comfortably. Earlier than that... I don't really know much about in electoral terms.


As for today, if the only options on the ballot were Con; Lab; and LibDem... I'd imagine Labour would do well or at least be very competitive in North Dublin; Cork City; Wicklow; Kildare; maybe Louth.
I could see plenty of LibDem votes in South Dublin, but beyond that...hard to say.
Conservatives...(assuming Nationalism not an issue) should do well in the North-West [Donegal; Cavan; Monaghan; Mayo; Leitrim...]

It's very hard to speculate. Somethings I don't really know...historically which party would do best in appealing to the rural vote - particularly small farmers and agri-labourers; how the country would react to abortion; and to involvement in another World War...

Throwing in a nationalist party and well, I can only judge on things like the previous returns for the various Nationalist parties pre-1922 (Sinn Féin; IPP; Home Rule League) which all dominated here.

It's very hard for me to imagine what Ireland would be like today without having gained independence 80 years ago; what the country would be like either as effectively devolved government - had the 3rd Home Rule Bill been implemented; or as simply just another part of the UK.

Anyhoo... population figures would be hidden around various parts of the CSO website, for example here are the current county populations; and here are the current constituency populations. I have no idea how many seats we'd have or how those additional votes would have affected the course of British and Irish history.

[Јas]

It's very hard to speculate. Somethings I don't really know...historically which party would do best in appealing to the rural vote - particularly small farmers and agri-labourers;

Agricultural labourers mostly vote Labour and have done since the '20's (there are, o/c, a hell of a lot less of them now than used to be the case. In some areas there's a direct link between the post-war collapse of agricultural employment and big falls in the Labour vote).

In which case, Labour would have been competitive nationwide at least until the 60's.

Though this obviously doesn't factor in what the effects on the Irish agricultural community would have been in the absence of the Economic War with Britain in the 30's and Irish inclusion in WWII.

[Јas]

Good question actually - should Ireland (North and Republic) be split or treated uniformly?

You know, you're not the first to ask that question...

FWIW, I'd say that it depends on the historical angle you take. If you run with the idea that no form of devolution or independence ever happened, then I'd go with uniform treatment.

If one considers devolution/independence or some other historical take which involved a split of some kind, I'd treat the border there as more significant than a county or provincial boundary but not unbreakable.

[Јas]

The Third Home Rule Bill would have to have been pased for this to have any basis. Presumibly just before the outbreak of war, with slaughters like the Somme uniting the communities as Gallipolli did in Australia.

In which case, we get but what was it 40-something MPs in Westminster instead of 100+, and still partition is a distinct possibility.

Northern Unionists would continue to vote Tory, i believe the IPP would have moved on block to join the liberals since their reason for being was gone.

A further 60-70 seats for the Liberals throughout the 20s would have delayed the rise of the Labour party, Asquith becoming PM in 23 with Labour support, rather then vice versa in real time line.

This would potentially cause a serious alteration in British history.

i cant see Labour winning any seats outside Dublin with the straight vote and the Catholic churches anti communist sentiment.

Very hard to see any scenario whereby no Irish Party, such as Sinn Féin, don't continue to run and do very well.

I'd agree that there would be very serious consequences for British history - though what the ramifications would be

As to whether the Liberals or Labour would gain, one unusual but particularly interesting place to examine in this regard is the seat of Liverpool Scotland which returned TP O'Connor as an Irish Nationalist from 1885 right through to 1929 when he dies. Labour took and held that seat quite easily. Across the sea and all but still interesting nonetheless.

Welcome to the forum, btw!

[Јas]

This reminds me; it would be interesting to see how what would have been Northern Ireland would have developed politically in absense of partition and perpetual Unionist Party rule.

Without partition but with a unified devolved governement here within the UK - very, very hard to say. The key factor may be how strong the moves in the rest of the island would have been to seek full independence, I'd suggest.

If we had partition still, but with the South remaining in the UK, I'd imagine it would have been much more difficult for the British government to get away with turning a blind eye to the same extent as they did - that's assuming that the Unionists still tried to create their own little fiefdom to the same extent. Whatever the partisan make-up of the Southern bloc in Westminster, their would have to have been a fairly united and considerable pressure on any London administration to get involved much earlier than they did.

It might be worth mentioning that in the 1962 Stormont elections the NILP took as high a share of the vote province-wide as 25% (with the total Socialist vote being around 31% or so).
And o/c not everyone in the Unionist Party was right-wing in a conventional sense; those representing working class Belfast seats (the ones that the NILP or assorted Catholic Socialists didn't win) tended not to be and you have to wonder who their voters would have voted for in a more "normal" political situation.

If a normal UK system is applied, then Belfast and Derry would almost certainly be strongly Labour (South Belfast might be a 3-way marginal actually, I'd suggest the LibDems might have an edge there). Beyond that, I'd speculate that East of the Bann, the Conservatives would pick up most of the rest, while I'd be much less sure what would happen west of the Bann in Fermanagh; Tyrone; Co. Derry, etc.

[Јas]

there's a bit of a problem with Cavan though.

It's always been like that.

[Јas]

No comments since my last apperance....

Well, I'm reading with interest if not commenting. Like I said, there's just so many variables at play.

What I find most interesting is that you have two Irish parties in play in Clann na Gael and the Irish Parliamentary Party. I'd be more inclined to believe that as with pre-independence, there would probably be one strong party (if having divergent wings of varying commital to constitutionalist means) competing against the 'normal' British parties.

I'd also find it very difficult to classify constituencies along Lab/Con/LDem lines given just how Irish politics has evolved - i.e. much less clear ideologies; more localist in outlook (or maybe I'm wrong ?)

Anyhow, your work is still very interesting. By and large, a good effort at constituency drawing (I'll pretend I didn't see Lower Shannonside )

[Јas]

Plus I now have additional access to more demographic data. (Not online sadly )

Dare one ask the source?