Ireland Election 24 May 2007

[Јas]

With the election on Thursday it looks likely that I won't be able to vote... sh**t.

Something which affects and equally riles me.

[Јas]

FF will probably win right?

Define "win".

Who are the people who vote for FF? Do they have a core vote in the way that British parties do (e.g. the urban working class for Labour; the Home Counties upper middle classes for the Tories), or is their support fairly evenly drawn from all elements of society. Is there anyone Irish on here who has any insight into this?

In Britain, class seems to be the crucial criterion when looking at who votes for which party. Not so much here...

I'll actually refer you to a brief discussion between Gully and myself in the other thread on FF and FG which should provide some insight into the two parties - link.

[Јas]

What are the Greens economic policies, by the way? Are they your more traditional European Greens or are they closer towards the Canadian Greeen Party and the like?

Unfortunately I don't know enough about the European or Canadian Greens to compare them, though the Irish Green MEPs have always had a less than great relationship with the Greens in the European Parliament.

The Party has a series of short policy summaries on it's website here along the left hand side.

On the economy, they say as follows:
"At present, the Irish taxation system is inequitable and inefficient. Many aspects of the system, as it stands, appear to have no economic, social or environmental purpose. Fiscal instruments that could potentially stimulate valuable social and entrepreneurial activities have been misused by successive Governments and many of the wealthiest in society continue to pay minimal or no taxes. This situation is undermining trust in the taxation system, in the political system and in society.

The Green Party believes that, in addition to raising revenue, the taxation system should be used to encourage and reward activities with positive economic, social and environmental effects. As such, the burden of taxation should be shifted away from socially constructive activities, including labour, and onto socially, economically and environmentally deleterious activities. The aim of this strategy is to create a balanced system by ensuring that a range of fiscal instruments, including tax reliefs, are used efficiently, appropriately and equitably. This policy outlines reforms that the Green Party believes must be undertaken if such a system is to exist."

[Јas]

For instance, in Northern Ireland it was generally thought that:

UUP transfer to DUP
DUP transfer to UUP
SDLP transfer to SF
SF transfer to SDLP
All transfer to everyone else

A little more complicated than that, esp. UUP and SDLP voters who could transfer to the Alliance (i.e. the centre) rather than to their more extreme sides. But anywy...

and so would like to know if a similar scheme is in play in Ireland

Given that the parties aren't as ideologically simple as in NI, transfers are more complex and are also strongly affected by geography - one would note that transfers across county boundaries are often less than fortcoming even between candidates of the same party.

However in very broad generalities:
FF - go everywhere
FG - Lab; Green; PD
Lab - everywhere (exc. PD). SF, Green and FG probably benefit most
Green - Lab, SF...
SF - Lab, Green, FF, other far left...
PD - FF, FG
Socialist - Lab, SF...

You seem to be very interested in numbers and stats, so I'd advise you to check out electionsireland.com. Here is a link to their main page for the 2002 General. From there you can get the results for all the constituencies, within which you can see details of complete counts and transfer breakdowns by constituency, and changes since the previous election. (The links all go to my own constituency, Cavan-Monaghan, just to provide an example.)