Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

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The Sunday papers...

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Jas Projection:

Constituency	FG	FF	SF	Lab	Other	Notes
Carlow-Kilk	2	2	1			RESULT
Cavan-Mon	1	2	1			Last seat too close to call really between FF, FG, and SF
Clare	2	1			1 Ind (Harty)
Cork E	1	1	1	1		RESULT
Cork NC	1	1	1		1 AAA-PBP
Cork NW	1	2				RESULT
Cork SC	1	2	1
Cork SW	1	1			1 Ind (Collins)	RESULT
Donegal	1	2	1		1 Ind (Pringle)	Last seat is still too close to call between Pringle and SF
Dub Bay N	1	1	1		1 IndAlliance (McGrath); 1 Ind4Change (Broughan)	Potentially subject to substantial change
Dub Bay S	2	1		1	1 Green	Last seat too close to call between FF and Lab
Dub Central	1		1		1 Ind (O’Sullivan)
Dub Fingal	1	1	1	1	1 Ind4Change (Daly)
Dub MW	1	1	1		1 AAA-PBP	RESULT
Dub NW	1		1		1 SocDem	Last seat too close to call between FG and FF
Dub Rathdown	1				1 IndAlliance (Ross); 1 Green	RESULT
Dub SC	1		1		1 AAA-PBP, 1 Ind4Change (Collins)
Dub SW	1	1	1		1 AAA-PBP; 1 Ind (Zappone)	RESULT
Dub W	1	1		1	1 AAA-PBP	RESULT
Dún Laoghaire	3				1 AAA-PBP	RESULT
Galway E	1	1			1 IndAlliance (Canney)	RESULT
Galway W	2	1			2 Inds (Grealish, Connolly)	Potentially subject to substantial change
Kerry	1	1	1		2 Inds (Healy-Raes)
Kildare N	1	2			1 SocDem	Last seat too close to call between FF and FG
Kildare S	1	2				RESULT
Laois	1	1	1			RESULT
Limerick City	1	1	1	1		RESULT
Limerick Co	2	1				RESULT
L'ford-W'Meath	1	1	1		1 IndAlliance (Moran)	Last seat too close to call between SF and FG
Louth	2	1	2			Last seat probably FG, but can't quite absolutely rule out Lab yet
Mayo	2	2				Last seat too close to call between FF and FG
Meath E	2	1				RESULT
Meath W	1	1	1			RESULT
Offaly	1	1	1			RESULT
Roscommon-Gal		1			1 Ind (Naughten); 1 IndAlliance (Fitzmaurice)	RESULT
Sligo-Leitrim	1	2	1			Last seat too close to call between FF and FG
Tipperary	1	1			1 WUAG, 2 Inds (Lowry, McGrath)	Last seat too close to call between FG and Lab
Waterford	1	1	1		1 IndAlliance (Halligan)
Wexford	2	1		1	1 Ind4Change (Wallace)	Last seat too close to call between FG and SF
Wicklow	2	1	1		1 SocDem	Last seat too close to call between FG and Renua
TOTAL	51	44	24	6	34

Totals
51 Fine Gael
44 Fianna Fáil
24 Sinn Féin
  6 Labour
  6 AAA-PBP
  6 Independent Alliance 
  4 Independents 4 Change
  3 Social Democrats
  2 Green
  1 WUAG
  0 Renua
12 Independents

158 Total

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Cork East count is complete.

Seats: 4
Quota: 10,562

	Count 8	Count 9	Count 10
Sherlock (Lab)	9,916	11,803
Stanton (FG)	9,647	11,558
O'Keefe (FF)	9,880	11,035
Buckley (SF)	8,175	8,457	8,639
Ahern (FF)	6,216	6,432	6,781
McCarthy (FG)	6,203

And with that, we await the resumption of counting around the country later this morning.

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http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0228/771304-live-election-2016-national-updates/

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Counting has now resumed in Cork North Central.
Most will restart at the top of the next hour.

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It's officially the lowest FPV of a leading party in any Irish general election.

Previous record: June 1927, FF polled 26.2%.
New record: 2016, FG polled 25.5%.

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More Sunday papers...

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Given Ireland is the land of STV, is there any advantage from being the largest party in terms of getting the Taoiseach seat?  Is  FG-FF grand alliance destined to have a FG Taoiseach then ?

There is no constitutional or legal barrier to the Taoiseach not being from the largest party in the coalition. The Taoiseach is simply whoever the majority of the Dáil elect to be Taoiseach.

It has, to date, never happened though. The closest situation though was 1948 when a multi-party anti-FF coalition came together, but the FG leader was not elected Taoiseach as he was unacceptable to the other members of the coalition. Instead another senior FG figure was acceptable and got the job.

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I have a questions which I am sorry if had been answered earlier in the thread:  Did FG and LAB have an alliance agreement in the election where they will ask their supporters to mark the other party on their list right after the party they support? This way on the list FG voters would put LAB candidates right after the FG candidates and vice versa.

Informally, yes.

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Updated Projection:

Constituency	FG	FF	SF	Lab	Other	Notes
Carlow-Kilk	2	2	1			RESULT
Cavan-Mon	1	2	1			RESULT
Clare	2	1			1 Ind (Harty)	RESULT
Cork E	1	1	1	1		RESULT
Cork NC	1	1	1		1 AAA-PBP	RESULT
Cork NW	1	2				RESULT
Cork SC	1	2	1			RESULT
Cork SW	1	1			1 Ind (Collins)	RESULT
Donegal	1	2	1		1 Ind (Pringle)	Last seat is still too close to call between Pringle and SF
Dub Bay N	1	1	1		1 IndAlliance (McGrath); 1 Ind4Change (Broughan)	Potentially subject to substantial change
Dub Bay S	2	1			1 Green	RESULT
Dub Central	1		1		1 Ind (O’Sullivan)	RESULT
Dub Fingal	1	1	1	1	1 Ind4Change (Daly)	RESULT
Dub MW	1	1	1		1 AAA-PBP	RESULT
Dub NW	1		1		1 SocDem	RESULT
Dub Rathdown	1				1 IndAlliance (Ross); 1 Green	RESULT
Dub SC	1		1		1 AAA-PBP, 1 Ind4Change (Collins)	Subject to Recount
Dub SW	1	1	1		1 AAA-PBP; 1 Ind (Zappone)	RESULT
Dub W	1	1		1	1 AAA-PBP	RESULT
Dún Laoghaire	3				1 AAA-PBP	RESULT
Galway E	1	1			1 IndAlliance (Canney)	RESULT
Galway W	2	1			2 Inds (Grealish, Connolly)	RESULT
Kerry	1	1	1		2 Inds (Healy-Raes)
Kildare N	1	2			1 SocDem	RESULT
Kildare S	1	2				RESULT
Laois	1	1	1			RESULT
Limerick City	1	1	1	1		RESULT
Limerick Co	2	1				RESULT
L'ford-W'Meath	1	1	1		1 IndAlliance (Moran)	Last seat too close to call between SF and FG
Louth	2	1	2			RESULT
Mayo	2	2				RESULT
Meath E	2	1				RESULT
Meath W	1	1	1			RESULT
Offaly	1	1	1			RESULT
Roscommon-Gal		1			1 Ind (Naughten); 1 IndAlliance (Fitzmaurice)	RESULT
Sligo-Leitrim	1	2	1			Last seat too close to call between FF and FG
Tipperary		1		1	1 WUAG, 2 Inds (Lowry, McGrath)	RESULT
Waterford	1	1	1		1 IndAlliance (Halligan)	RESULT
Wexford	2	1		1	1 Ind4Change (Wallace)	Last seat too close to call between FG and SF - Recount Monday
Wicklow	2	1	1		1 SocDem	RESULT
TOTAL	50	44	24	6	34

Totals
50 Fine Gael
44 Fianna Fáil
24 Sinn Féin
  6 Labour
  6 AAA-PBP
  6 Independent Alliance 
  4 Independents 4 Change
  3 Social Democrats
  2 Green
  1 WUAG
  0 Renua
12 Independents

158 Total

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Thanks for the answers. One other question just for fun: which politician/party is equivalent to Sanders/Paul? (i.e. They have a lot of young, loud supporters and do much better on the internet than in real life?)

Nobody springs to mind.


As an addendum to my previous post, I'd note that 5 years ago - without any deals or offers - Grealish, Lowry, Healy-Rae, and Mattie McGrath all voted in favour of Kenny for Taoiseach.

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Cabinet Ministers who have lost their seats:

James Reilly (FG)   Minister for Children and Youth Affairs
Alex White (L)        Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources


Junior Ministers who have lost their seats:

Tom Hayes (FG)       Minister of State for Food, Horticulture and Food Safety
Gerald Nash (L)       Minister of State for Business and Employment
Jimmy Deenihan (FG)   Minister of State for the Diaspora
Kathleen Lynch (L)    Minister of State for Primary Care, Mental Health and Disability
Kevin Humphreys (L)    Minister of State for Employment, Community and Social Support
Paudie Coffey (FG)    Minister of State for Housing, Planning and Co-ordination
Ann Phelan (L)       Minister of State for Rural Economic Development and Rural Transport

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http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0228/771409-labour-joan-burton/

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http://www.thejournal.ie/mcguinness-adams-2630892-Feb2016/

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Thanks for the answers. One other question just for fun: which politician/party is equivalent to Sanders/Paul? (i.e. They have a lot of young, loud supporters and do much better on the internet than in real life?)

In the last year the Social Democrats have sort of fit into that pattern.

I think SF fit that better actually since the Social Democrats actually did do very well whereas SF kind of deflated in the last few months.

I support the Social Democrats and would have voted for them, but even with low expectations I wouldn't call getting 3% and 3 seats "doing very well".

Welcome to the world of the Irish left.

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The Monday papers...

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http://www.irishtimes.com/election-2016-first-moves-get-under-way-in-bid-to-form-government-1.2553176

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Schedule for counting/recounting to begin again today:

09.00  Dublin South-West

10.00  Wexford

11.00  Dublin Bay North

13.00  Dublin South-Central

15.00  Longford-Westmeath

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http://www.irishexaminer.com/election2016/election2016-news-and-analysis/enda-kenny-scrambles-to-to-secure-support-of-independents-to-hold-onto-power-384699.html

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I am great fan of the STV system but I noticed one major problem: it takes very long to count the votes and probably need a lot of people to work in electoral commissions for all that time.

Why is it a major problem?

When last district will be counted?

I imagine at least one of the counts will still be going tomorrow.

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Bertie says ‘no chance in hell’ government will be formed before Easter - TheJournal.ie

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http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/news/senior-tds-warn-martin-against-coalition-with-fg-34496239.html

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Statement released by Fianna Fáil leader, Michael Martin, this evening.

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https://www.fiannafail.ie/statement-from-fianna-fail-leader-micheal-martin-td-5x/

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Recount completed in Longford-Westmeath; 12th count declared official.

Longford-Westmeath
Seats: 4
Quota: 11,056

	Count 12
Troy (FF)	Elected (Count 1)
Moran (i)	10,108
Burke (FG)	7,629
Hogan (SF)	6,641
Penrose (Lab)	6,356
Bannon (FG)	5,947
Gerety-Quinn (FF)	5,907

Gerety-Quinn eliminated.

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/rotating-taoiseach-plan-key-to-any-ff-fg-alliance-party-sources-1.2554693