Irish general election: 25 February 2011

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It's good... but my favourite pic from yesterday was of Gormley at the Unitarian Church...

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Another poll out today by Millward Brown Lansdowne for theIrish Independent.

	16 Feb	13 Feb	6 Feb	3 Feb	2 Feb	2007
	MBL	RedC	RedC	I-MRBI	MBL	Election
Fine Gael	38	38	35	33	30	27
Labour	23	20	22	24	24	10
Fianna Fáil	12	15	17	15	16	42
Sinn Féin	10	10	13	12	13	7
Green	1	3	2	1	1	5
Ind/Other	16	14	11	15	15	9

New record low for FF
Corroborates the record high FG return from Sunday
Labour’s fall arrested (?)
SF seem to be returning back to the high end of a ‘normal’ polling result for them


Satisfaction Ratings
42 Martin
41 Gilmore
30 Kenny
26 Adams
13 Gormley

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Adrian Kavanagh, who attempts to apply a sort of uniform national swing to all the polls that come out, figures that a result á la the MBL poll could put FG on 78 seats - 5 short of a potential majority.

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     In light of the latest poll, any chance that Sinn Féin will get more votes than Fianna Fáil?

Unlikely, but not impossible.

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Article in The Economist looking at how the Irish economic crash has affected issues such as immigration, attitudes to the EU, politicking etc.

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Is there a certain percentage target where Fine Gael is likely to win a majority of seats?  I'll be interested to see how a wide spread between the first and second placed parties effects the proportionality of the Irish STV system. 

There's no simple answer to that, quite a few variables come into play:
1. As Lewis says, it depends on just how fractured the opposition is. Currently with FF so low, SF relatively high, Labour doing well (but not too well) and indications of lots of votes for others - it looks quite good for FG.

2. It depends on how inclined people are to transfer to FG from the other parties. Polling indicates that in the current instance Labour voters are likely to transfer quite well to FG - which will be useful to them.

3. It also depends on how good Fine Gael are at vote management - i.e. how well they split first preference votes between their candidates, and how well FG voters continue to give their next preferences to other FG candidates. This we'll not know until the results start coming in.

Getting an overall majority with anything less than 40 would be difficult and need the above to all go FG's way, as well as a bit of luck.

For quite a range, FPV total alone isn’t itself enough information to tell whether a majority is in reach. See below FF’s FPV result in recent elections, and how far short of a majority they fell:

2007	41.6%	5
2002	41.5%	2
1997	39.3%	6
1992	39.1%	15
1989	44.2%	6
1987	44.2%	2

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Outgoing FF TD for Cork East, Ned O'Keefe looks like he's giving great effort to winning the most outrageous statement of the day competition.

The other day, his son Kevin (running to retain his father's seat) disowned his father's remarks that an army coup was now a "real possibility".

Yesterday, O'Keefe claimed that the outgoing Government had "too many intellectuals" - and expressed unease over the idea that nobody in the cabinet "ever bought a bale of hay".

Couldn't make it up.

- journal.ie

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So then, the 3 pollsters all published either yesterday or today.
Figures below, with their most recent comparators and the last election result.

	21 Feb	20 Feb	20 Feb	16 Feb	13 Feb	3 Feb	2007
	I-MRBI	MBL	RedC	MBL	RedC	I-MRBI	Election
Fine Gael	37	37	39	38	38	33	27
Labour	19	20	17	23	20	24	10
Fianna Fáil	16	16	16	12	15	15	42
Sinn Féin	12	12	12	10	10	12	7
Green	2	1	2	1	3	1	5
Ind/Other	18	19	14	16	14	15	9

So 4 days out, it appears that there is a level of consistency amongst the pollsters – absolute in the case of FF and SF.

A FG overall majority, forming the first single party majority government in Ireland since 1977, is on the table. I don’t think they’d make it on these numbers, but there are those who do, and with some days still to go and momentum in their direction – it’s a real possibility.

Labour’s despair must increase with each new poll indicating that the ground continues to soften underfoot. Since May last year, they’ve been largely easily clearing the 20% marker - peaking at 35% in September. Since then, support has been gradually dissipating. At the start of the campaign the notion of a Labour Taoiseach was, possibly for the first time ever, not to be immediately dismissed out of hand. How much is each day costing them in votes? Find out Saturday.

Fianna Fáil has stemmed the tide, but 16% remains a disaster for the party. They’re catching Labour, but almost solely by dint of Labour falling. I doubt they can still snatch second place at this point.

Sinn Féin’s 12% should give them a very respectable election result – if it holds true. (They have tended to overpoll in the past.)

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Imperfect, but then they all are...
votomatic.ie fills the void of the who should you vote for internet quizzy thingimajig.

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Time to try and get some election prediction in – not sure I'll have time to get through everything, but we'll see how I get on...

First up the 3 Ulster constituencies.

Cavan-Monaghan

Given that this is my native constituency, I’ll go that bit further here in my prediction than elsewhere, and make what will no doubt be a ridiculous complete first preference guestimation…

%   
21 Ó Caoláin   
15 Humphries   
13 O’Reilly      
11 Smith   
  9 Reilly   
  7 McVitty      
  7 Conlon, M   
  6 Conlon, S   
  4 McGuirk
  3 Hogan   
  2 Treanor   
  1 Lonergan
  1 Forde   
  0 Duffy   

We can go back and lol at that on Saturday.

So by this I’d say Ó Caoláin, Humphries, O’Reilly and Smith to get elected – with Reilly against McVittie for the last seat. I imagine SF will suffer much less transfer leakage than FG, so I’ll plump for Reilly.

Prediction: 2 FG, 2 SF, 1 FF (FG and SF GAINS from FF)


Donegal North-East

Pádraig MacLochlainn of SF to top the poll and secure SF’s first seat in DSE since the early years of the state. Joe McHugh of FG should retain his seat easily enough – but I can’t see there being much chance of him dragging his running-mate terribly close to the line.

Final seat should be FF’s – they’re just running local Cllr, Charlie McConalogue.
I’d expect reasonable numbers for Labour Cllr Jimmy Harte, independent Betty Holmes and New Vision candidate, MacDara Blaney (of the Blaney clan that has held a seat here for decades). If there is sufficiently strong anti-FF transferring then maybe McConalogue can be beaten, I presume Harte would be best placed to do so, but he’d be up against it.

Prediction: 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF (SF GAIN from FF)


Donegal South West

Should be fairly straightforward  for Doherty (SF) and McGinley (FG).
The Tánaiste, Mary Coughlan (FF) should take the last. Again, a proviso being that there could be sufficient votes out there to keep Coughlan out, but it would require strong transferring among the non-FF candidates. I doubt that level of cohesion will be there, but if it is I’d imagine Thomas Pringle is best placed to test Coughlan.

Prediction: 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF (SF GAIN from FF)

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On to Connacht…

Galway E

FG pitching for 3 out of 4 here and should get them in what is one of their strongest constituencies. They’re probably looking at drawing in around half the total first preference votes here. Connaughton and McHugh should be the leading FG candidates – maybe Cannon for the 3rd.

FF are defending 2 here – but by running 2, I think they might just be putting their shot at holding one at risk. Michael Kitt though should hold on.

Independent Seán Canney and Labour’s Colm Keaveney  should put up respectable numbers – the stronger of the two should be in the hunt for the last seat.

Prediction: 3 FG, 1 FF (FG GAIN from FF)


Galway W

Hard to call. Certainly 1 FG seat. After that any number of combinations seem plausible.

I imagine despite running 3 candidates, Eamon Ó Cuív will take a FF seat. There should be 2 FG seats (probably Walsh and Healy-Eames). Holding the Labour seat will probably be doable – despite that much of this was a personal vote disappearing with the retiring Michael D Higgins. Independents Noel Grealish (incumbent, ex-PD) and Catherine Connolly (formerly of Labour) are also contenders.

Prediction: 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 i [Grealish] (FG GAIN from FF)


Mayo

Home of Enda Kenny – their strongest constituency in 2007. This time FG will be pushing for 4 out of 5. Exactly the same line-up of candidates as last time for them, moving from 3 to 4 is a real possibility.

FF closed the Dáil with the other 2 seats – realistically they can only hope to hold 1. And should, but running a second candidate is a danger.

Also in the running for a seat should be for Labour, former Independent TD, Jerry Cowley; independent Cllr Michael Kilcoyne; and SF’s Cllr Rose Conway-Walsh.

With a better Sinn Féin candidate (and were they running 1 rather than 2), I’d have plumped for them to take a seat – otherwise I think Kilcoyne is the best placed challenger.

Prediction: 4 FG, 1 FF (FG GAIN from Independent)


Roscommon-Leitrim S

The 2 FG incumbents should be returned easily enough. The remaining seat should be between FF, SF, Labour’s John Kelly, and independent, Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan. As I’d probably (happily) support Flanagan – I’m taking that as a reasonable guide that he couldn’t possibly actually get elected.

 I’m guessing Connaghton of FF will be close, despite having a running mate. If anti-FF sentiment on transfers is strong enough, FF should get shut out. I'm guessing Labour are best placed to make that challenge (but this could be hilariously wrong - I doubt anyone else will be calling a Lab gain here).

Prediction: 2 FG, 1 Lab (Lab GAIN from FF)


Sligo-Leitrim N

FG should definitely be looking at two here and indeed I’d expect them to both top and come second in the poll.

FF defending 2, will be desperately seeking to hold 1 – but I imagine the wind’s against them. SF seem best placed to pick up here. Labour might have been, but the inclusion of former Labour member Declan Bree, should split that vote and give SF’s Colreavy a cushion.

Prediction: 2 FG, 1 SF (FG and SF GAINS from FF)

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Ha, there's probably going to be some pretty sad people in Dublin once the Irish hero Gadaffi falls. If I lived in Massachusetts I'd love to observe the reaction in South Boston.

I understand the Government is about to declare a week of national mourning and that Gadafi has been offered asylum.
 

Has Sinn Fein issued any statements yet about how much of a glorious freedom fighter he is?

Several. As of course has everyone else.

Oh no wait... I'm not actually living in BRTD-bizarro world.


Not that anyone will be shedding tears about him, but ironically, as noted by journalist Eamon Mallie, it is unionists in the North who might be more concerned about Gadaffi falling - it scuppers their hopes to get him to agree to a compensation deal for IRA victims.


As it happens one of the independents running in South Dublin is of Libyan origin (he got asylum in Ireland in the 90s), tragically, it seems his brother was shot and killed in Benghazi a few days ago.


Short piece in The Irish Times on Irish-Libyan relations; also a brief colour piece on Islam in Ireland from the weekend.

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http://www.finegael2011.com/game/


Jesus Christ.

I can only recommend that you be infracted severely for inflicting that on the forum

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Limerick City is now only a four-seater.

Oops... will correct
Thanks

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The final election campaign polls were published this morning.
Per below with the weekend polls.

	23 Feb	23 Feb	21 Feb	20 Feb	20 Feb	2007
	RedC	MBL	I-MRBI	MBL	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	40	38	37	37	39	27
Labour	18	20	19	20	17	10
Fianna Fáil	15	14	16	16	16	42
Sinn Féin	10	11	12	12	12	7
Green	3	1	2	1	2	5
Ind/Other	14	16	18	19	14	9

One can draw one's own conclusions.

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Which I think should give an overall prediction *get your buckets of salt ready* of something like:
73 Fine Gael
38 Labour
26 Fianna Fáil
16 Sinn Féin
  6 United Left Alliance
  7 Independents
  0 Greens

which looks instinctively wrong. Anyway, I guess we'll how wrong soon enough.

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I see the exit poll is being announced at 8am. Is there a particular reason why Ireland doesn't make people stay up into the wee hours to learn who's going to govern the country? I know NI used to do it.

Counting transfers in an STV system takes too long. If they did it overnight, they wouldn't have any results until 4 am or so anyway.

So there is no point in watching television coverage of election night?

I think last time they announced the first count and then went to bed (might be remembering that wrong), but I think all counting is happening the next morning this time.

In 2002, a test with electronic voting in 3 constituencies was done - those counts were done pretty much immediately after polls closed.

Other than that, we've always stuck with counting the day after (and the day after that).

Counts will begin at 9a.m. It'll probably be a couple of hours before a reasonable idea of what's going on emerges.

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Which I think should give an overall prediction *get your buckets of salt ready* of something like:
73 Fine Gael
38 Labour
26 Fianna Fáil
16 Sinn Féin
  6 United Left Alliance
  7 Independents
  0 Greens

which looks instinctively wrong. Anyway, I guess we'll how wrong soon enough.

Thanks for the posts, Jas.

A lot of people seem to be calling for slightly more FG and Ind seats than that- which would give them a lot easier chance to govern without Labour.  It should be interesting.

Yeah, I also seem to be more favourable to SF than most.
I rushed through Dublin a bit - might review things.

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So, that gives a slightly revised overall prediction of:
73 Fine Gael
37 Labour
27 Fianna Fáil
15 Sinn Féin
  6 United Left Alliance
  8 Independents


For a bit of comparison, two of The Irish Times's political correspondents blogged their predictions today:

	de Bréadún	McGee
Fine Gael	82	79
Labour	35	34
Fianna Fáil	25	21
Sinn Féin	12	10
United Left		3
Green	0	2
Ind/Other	12*	16

*including unspecified ULA

So, I'm clearly on a different wavelength to the professional commentators in certain regards. Oh well...

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What time do the polls open over there?

Polls opened at 7a.m. and close at 10p.m. (local times).
(Though I suppose technically, many of the islands off the west coast voted either on Wednesday or Thursday.)

An exit poll wil be release tomorrow morning at 8a.m.; counting begins at 9.
We won't know much until early afternoon.

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I suppose technically FF have gotten off to an early lead. The outgoing Ceann Comhairle (Speaker) Seamus Kirk being automatically returned in Louth, so it's:

Fianna Fáil	1
Fine Gael	0
Labour	0
Sinn Féin	0
United Left	0
Greens	0
Ind/Other	0

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Profile of prospective Taoiseach Enda Kenny in today's Irish Times

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"Independent TD for Wexford Mick Wallace says the 'archaic' dress code in the Dáil is antiquated.

He says he does not own a suit or tie.

Which makes 2 - Richard Boyd Barrett reportedly doesn't own a suit either.

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Negotiations between FG and Labour continue today. Expectations are that they'll conclude an agreed Programme for Government by the weekend.

There are no reports of any FG effort to speak with independents or anyone else regarding the formation of a Government, despite signals from a number of independent TDs that they would be amenable - e.g. Noel Grealish (i-Galway W) has stated he will be supporting Kenny in the vote for Taoiseach.


Elsewhere, life for the Greens will quickly become a lot more difficult. Failing to get 2% of the national vote means their state funding support is lost.