Irish general election: 25 February 2011

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4 Government Ministers resigned last night:
Minister for Justice, Dermot Ahern (FF-Louth)
Minister for Transport, Noel Dempsey (FF-Meath W)
Minister for Defence, Tony Killeen (FF-Clare)
Minister for Health, Mary Harney (i-Dublin MW)

None of the 4 will be contesting the next election (all but Harney had made this known before last night). Harney offered her resignation last week, but the Taoiseach held off until now to accept. The others were likely asked to resign to facilitate a broader reshuffle.

The reshuffle, expected in the next 24-48 hours, will likely result in some of the shortest serving cabinet ministers in Irish history.

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The Taoiseach has announced 11 March as the date for the General Election.

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Minister for Enterprise, Batt O'Keeffe (FF-Cork NW) has become the 6th Government Minister to resign.

The farce of the resignations, causing considerable disgruntlement with the Greens, seems to have forced Cowen to name a date for the election - quite possible earlier than might otherwise have been the case. (25 March was the conventional wisdom until now).

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Are constituency boundaries the same as last time?

No - new boundaries in line with a 2007 re-drawing.
Details and maps here.

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The Ministerial portfolios have been reassigned, but it's clear that the Greens have refused to allow the Taoiseach to appoint new people to the posts (presumably threatening otherwise to leave Government immediately).

They posts have therefore been redesignated amongst existing ministers - leaving us with what I presume is the smallest Irish cabinet probably since the earliest days of the State.

Tánaiste and Minister for Education, Mary Coughlan (FF-Donegal SW) will also act as Minister for Health.
Minster for Agriculture, Brendan Smyth (FF-Cavan-Monaghan) will also act as Minister for Justice.
Minister for Community, Equality & Gaeltacht Affairs, Pat Carey (FF-Dublin NW) will also act as Minister for Transport.
Minister for Tourism, Mary Hanafin (FF-Dún Laoghaire) will also act as Minister for Enterprise.
Minister for Social Protection, Eamon Ó Cuív (FF-Galway W) will also act as Minister for Defence.

The Taoiseach will continue to act as Minister for Foreign Affairs.

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This means that Noel Grealish will be the only ex-PD standing.

Well, yes and no.

The last leader of the PDs, Senator Ciarán Cannon will be running for FG in Galway E.

Cllr. Mae Sexton, who was a PD TD (2002-07), will be running to regain her seat in Longford-Westmeath for Labour.

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Today's Irish Times has a good summary of yesterday's shenanigans and the events leading up to it. Amazingly the leadership of FF is once again now an open question, with renewed calls for Cowen to go.

- Cowen's spectacular coup ends as one of the greatest self-inflicted wounds
- Party discipline goes out the window in Fianna Fáil's very public implosion

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The response of Martin to the question of whether it was now too late to change leader. Bit of a change from just after losing the confidence battle...

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Anyway, he's not alone in thinking there's still time to change things.
Minister of State Conor Lenihan (FF-Dublin SW), Former Minister for Defence, Willie O'Dea (FF-Limerick E), and Michael McGrath (FF-Cork SC) have all renewed calls for Cowen to resign as FF leader.

TDs are returning to their constituencies this weekend, canvassing will be stepping up. Who knows what their opinions will be when they reconvene next week.

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How much would it actually help Fianna Fáil if they changed leader now?

Nobody knows - too many variables.

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It would be a shame though if we didn't get to see a PC 1993-style collapse of FF now.

Arguably, we have/will.

PC fell from 43% of the vote in '88, to 16% in 1993.
FF were at 42% in the 2007 election, and are now polling in the mid-teens.

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Details on the first leadership election for Fianna Fáil since 1992 are out.

Nominations close at 1p.m. tomorrow.
The vote will be held at a parliamentary party meeting on Wednesday at 2p.m.
Four declared candidates so far.



Micheál Martin
The favourite. His actions effectively forced the confidence motion during the week – he’s the only contender who made a public effort at bringing about a change of leadership.

50. A secondary level history teacher by profession, he’s been a TD for Cork SC since 1989. In cabinet since 1997, with responsibility for 4 departments since then (Education; Health; Enterprise; and Foreign Affairs). Was the Minister that introduced the smoking ban (first national such ban); also the Minister for Foreign Affairs during both Lisbon referenda.

Not the most popular figure within the parliamentary party, but his challenge gives him credibility. Also has the benefit of pretty much taking as given the support of the Cork contingent of FF TDs.


Brian Lenihan
51. A barrister by profession, he’s been TD for Dublin W since 1996 (winning a very closely fought by-election brought about by the death of his father). Member of the Government since 2007, holding the Justice (2007-08) and Finance (2008-) portfolios.

Built up a lot of credibility with the party with what was deemed a fairly confident handling of the Finance portfolio despite our financial and fiscal crises. With the entry of the IMF though, his standing took a slide.  

Part of the Lenihan dynasty (his father was Tánaiste) there are at least 2 votes he can count on – his brother Conor and his aunt Mary. Diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in late 2009, this seemed to put question marks both over his future ambition and indeed his continued role as Finance Minister – but it seems he has largely overcome the health scare.

Took a publicly equivocal view on the leadership question in recent days, before backing Cowen – prompting certain backbenchers to publicly berate his hypocrisy in privately taking Cowen down, but publicly backing him.


Mary Hanafin
51. An Irish and History secondary school teacher before becoming TD for Dún Laoghaire in 1997. Became Chief Whip in 2002, followed by stints in 4 Departments (Education; Social & Family Affairs; Enterprise; Tourism & Culture) and just the other day has also taken on acting responsibility for Enterprise again.

Adjudged by many in the party as unfairly demoted by Cowen, twice. Her standing hasn’t though been helped by the recent leadership crisis. In particular, the manner in which she failed to publicly declare her position until after the vote (despite assertions that she would make her position known beforehand) was viewed as fairly cynical.


Éamon Ó Cuív
60, TD for Galway W since 1992, became a Government Minister in 2002. Spent 8 years as Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs, before becoming Minister for Social Protection last year and now doubling up as acting Minister for Defence.

His FF pedigree is as strong as they come – he’s the grandson of party founder Éamon de Valera. The only one of the four contenders that can be seen as an absolute Cowen loyalist.

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Or are Senators not considered members of the "parliamentary party" in such elections?  (i.e. can they not vote for party leader?)

Seantors cannot vote in FF leadership elections.

Also, would the new Dáil be able to elect a new Ceann Comhairle even if Kirk wants to remain in that position?  Is the "standing down" that Rory O'Hanlon did in 2007 automatic, just that a Ceann Comhairle can be "reelected" to that position right after standing down? 

The first order of business for a new Dáil is the election of the Ceann Comhairle. There is no particular reason why Kirk couldn't be challenged.

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On the resignation of the Green Ministers yesterday, their portfolios have been re-assigned.

Eamon Ó Cuív will take on Environment and Pat Carey will take on Communications & Energy. Both are now responsible for 3 Departments.

The Government now having but 7 members, is now at the Constitutionally minimum allowed.

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So, if I understand correctly, Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens all want the finance bill passed by Friday, to be followed by dissolution of the Dáil, but Lenihan doesn't think it can be done. Sinn Féin wants an immediate dissolution, with the finance bill put on hold until after the election. Fine Gael has a motion of no confidence on Tuesday, Labour on Wednesday, and Sinn Féin at some other time.

Your understanding is correct.

Is there any chance that any of those motions pass?

Depends largely on how the discussions go regarding the Finance Bill.

If they go well, the motions will be withdrawn/postponed. If not, yes they could pass, but may not - depends largely on what the Greens decide.

BTW, in your figures at the bottom, you have the Greens listed on both sides. I'm not sure whether that's intentional or not.

Thanks, corrected now.

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journal.ie this morning have a list of declared supporters for the 4 FF leadership candidates. 

18 Martin
  4 Ó Cuív
  3 Lenihan
  3 Hanafin

43 undeclared

So, Martin well out in front. His supporters reportedly think that it's as good as wrapped up.

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The talks on the Finance Bill achieved resolution last night. FF, FG, Labour and the Greens agreed on a timetable such that the bill will pass on Saturday. (SF objected to what they have dubbed the "consensus on cuts".)

The Taoiseach will then dissolve the Dáil, at some point between Saturday and the next scheduled Dáil meeting on Tuesday - at which point if he fails to dissolve, the opposition will renew their motions of no confidence that would bring down the Government.

The expected date of the election remains Cowen's prerogative, but 25 February is deemed most likely.

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So, Martin well out in front. His supporters reportedly think that it's as good as wrapped up.

I don't know about Ireland, but these things very rarely are.

journal.ie's numbers this morning:
24 Martin
  5 Lenihan
  4 Ó Cuív
  3 Hanafin

35 undeclared

The Irish Times have Martin on 26, Lenihan on 6 - but without complete lists.

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For the last two General Elections, RTÉ have organised debates for the leaders of FF and FG.
In the last election, they had a supplementary debate for the leaders of Labour, Greens, PDs and SF.

Details of RTÉ's debate(s) this time are not yet agreed, but it seems interest is spreading exponentially.

It seems TV3, TG4 (Ireland's Irish language terrestrial TV station) and, surprisingly, Sky News are all reported to be seeking debates. The Irish Times reports that TV3 want a debate among the leaders of FF, FG and Labour; while Sky propose one between all 5 parties present in the Dáil.

TG4 could be interesting - I think all the leaders have at least reasonable grasps of Irish - but to debate in irish would be a challenge.

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A pre-election primer from the Crooked Timber blog.

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I would watch that for the entertainment value.

I fear such value would see remarkably rapid decreasing marginal returns as the debate progressed.

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The Finance Bill, the only legislative matter left for consideration by the 30th Dáil, passed the second stage vote in the house this morning.

There had been considerable speculation about the votes of Government supporting independents Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy-Rae, and the vote of Mattie McGrath, who left FF a few days ago.

Vote result...

For		Against
Fianna Fáil	70	Fine Gael	49
Greens	6	Labour	20
Mary Harney	1	Sinn Féin	5
Michael Lowry	1	Finian McGrath	1
Jackie Healy-Rae	1	Maureen O’Sullivan	1
Joe Behan	1	Noel Grealish	1
		Matty McGrath	1
	80		78

Lowry managed to get a few relatively minor amendments passed that sated him and Healy-Rae.

Mattie McGrath voted against on the initial electronic vote, but a call was made under the standing orders for a full traditional walk-through the lobby vote - on which McGrath abstained.

Anyway, the vote means that it's now very likely that the bill will pass as scheduled, by the end of this week.


Edit (Additional Footnote):
It might be noted that 2 FF TDs were absent for the vote, Dermot Ahern (who was [and for all I know, may still be] in hospital recently; and Noel Treacy.

They were officially paired by FG (Padraic McCormack and Michael Creed). FG withdrew pairing arrangements earlier in this Dáil because, of course, they wanted to bring down the Government. Some might see such a renewed pairing as exemplaring that despite their protests to the contrary, they really do want this Finance Bill to be passed.

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Micheál Martin has won the FF leadership.
Not sure if the full results will be made available.

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The Irish Times reports the counts in the FF leadership as:

	Rd1	Rd2	Rd3
Martin	33	36	50
Ó Cuív	15	18	22
Lenihan	14	18
Hanafin	10

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Ugh. Looks like FF might actually manage a second place finish in either votes or seats (and getting one, or even just barely missing out on one, is presumably enough to remain viable and credible.)

It's now firmly back within the range of possibilities - but they've a way to go yet.
They should be fairly transfer toxic still, so, even with improved numbers it would still an uphill task.

I hear we'll probably get an official dissolution tuesday?

Yeah, Dáil reconvenes Tuesday and Cowen has said he'll announce the dissolution then. No confirmation on the date for the General Election - but 25 February is generally presumed.