South Africa 2014

[njwes]

Very happy you made this thread! I've got some questions if you don't mind--hopefully they'll help others too

Is there anything in the way of accurate or even quasi-accurate polling in South Africa?

Do you think the DA will improve their result significantly after their good showings in 2009 and the 2011 municipals? Should the merger a few years back with the Independent Dems bring many coloured voters to their side?

Is there any sense that Mandela's death will have an effect on this election?

Can South Africans abroad vote?

[njwes]

Thanks so much for the detailed answers!

That prediction of 26% for the DA and 56% for the ANC sounds pretty shocking (based on my limited knowledge).

Is there any fear that, given its totally dominant position for the last 20 years, the ANC might resort to legally- or constitutionally-questionable tactics to hold onto power? (Not that a 56% result would really require that, but maybe looking ahead)

[njwes]

Hashemite, do you know where it's possible to follow the results as they come in?

Here's the SA Electoral Commission's website:

http://www.elections.org.za/resultsNPE2014/


No results yet though

[njwes]

Aren't these results sort of disappointing for both the DA and EFF though? I mean, the ANC will end up down, but not appreciably. The DA doesn't seem to have made substantial inroads among black voters. The 6% that EFF looks like it's going to end up with is less even than COPE got in the last election. I'd imagine that the ANC benefited from the collapse of COPE and the awfulness of IFP, but still, another 60+% victory after 20 years in power is nothing to get upset about.

Incidentally, I wonder if at this point the ANC would actually hand over the reigns of government in the event that a coalition was able to (or looked like it would be able to) force them out of power. I somewhat doubt it.

[njwes]

Any idea when international votes get counted?

The provincial results are less exciting than I'd hoped; not much vote-splitting in South Africa apparently

[njwes]

Too little, for the moment, but US Republicans would, actually, be happy with such a swing in their favor, wouldn't they?

Well, for comparison, Bush got ~15% of the black vote in 2004, which was the best in decades.