Pakistan General Elections: Feb. 8

[jaichind]

In addition to roping in PPP, it seems PML(N) will also try to get MQM in a PML(N) government.  If so there should be the numbers to make that work even though it will be a very unstable government.

[jaichind]

Imran Khan claims victory in a AI video made by PTI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0eq50DCm5o&ab_channel=24NewsHD

[jaichind]

PTI supporters should start wearing this t-shirt since in many seats that is exactly how the count went toward the end

[jaichind]

I suspect the PML(N)-PPP deal will be

PML(N) leader Nawaz Sharif is to be PM and if for whatever legal reason he cannot then his brother and current PM Shehbaz Sharif will be PM.   What PPP will get is PPP leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's father Asif Ali Zardari and former Pakistan Prez will be made Prez of Pakistan in March when the next Pakistan Prez election comes up.

Given the current PML(N)-PPP government international alignment is lean collective Wset while PTI is lean Russia, the collective West will mostly look the other way and let his new administration be formed and operate.  If so them the IMF-based economic therapy that started a year ago will continue.

[jaichind]

PTI-organized protests against rigging continue although I am sure the army keep a lid on it while the internet is shut down to contain any spread of protest.

The courts already stayed the results of District 88 based on the PTI candidate petition.  It seems there will be up to 100+ PTI candidate legal escalations.  Even if the courts stay many of those results in the end it is the PEC that will decide the results based on a recount.  As a result, almost all the current official result will remain.

[jaichind]

This is the first time in Pakistan's election history that the party backed by the military failed to emerge as the largest party.

[jaichind]

Final official results of 264 out of 266.

One seat result has been held due to a court ruling due to PTI legal protests.  Most likely in the end that seat will go to PML(N).  Another seat did not have an election due to violence.  I suspect PTI will win that one.

                Win                                         Won in 2018
Ind-PTI       93                                                116
PML(N)       75                                                  64
PPP            54                                                  43
MQM          17 (Left, anti-PTI)                              6
Ind.             8                                                  12
JUI(F)          4 (Islamic)                                    12 (MMA alliance which is mostly JUI(F))
PML(Q)        3 (PML(N) splinter, have allied with PPP and PTI in the past)

By region
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa - PTI took seats from JUI(F) and PML(N)
Punjab - PML(N) took some seats from PTI
Non-Karachi Sindh - PPP took some seats from PTI
Karachi - MQM took some seats from PTI
Balochistan - PML(N) PPP and regionals each took some from JUI(F)

I think most post-election rigging, where it took place, would be in Punjab where PML(N) captured some seats from PTI.  The military wanted PML(N) to win this election so to increase PML(N) seats and reduce PTI seats Punjab is the place to do it.

[jaichind]

Most claims of rigging seem to be that the final reported does not jive with the aggregated numbers from each precinct.  So most likely any "intervention" by the military is at the counting centers and not at the precinct level.  There are several dozens of PTI complains about this so the PEC will have its work cut out for it to investigate each one of them one by one.

[jaichind]

Punjab assembly - small swing from PTI to PML(N) which is pretty impressive under the circumstances.

                Won             2018
PML(N)      137              129
PTI            116              123
PPP             10                 6
PML(Q)          7                 8
Ind.             22               30

[jaichind]

https://www.thestatesman.com/world/pakistan-elections-imran-khan-backed-independents-bag-101-seats-pml-n-win-75-1503268712.html

"Pakistan elections: Imran Khan-backed independents bag 101, PML-N wins 75 seats"

I see a lot of non-Pakistan media say that PTI won 101 seats.  This is incorrect.  They are conflating all independents to be PTI.  Only 93 out of the 101 independent winners are PTI-backed.   The rest are true independents.    I also found some cases where even Indian media made this mistake.  Given how related  India is to Pakistan I am surprised that Indian media will make this mistake.

[jaichind]

https://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/790887-Newly-elected-PTI-backed-MNA-Waseem-Qadir-joins-PML-N

"Newly-elected PTI-backed MNA Waseem Qadir joins PML-N"

There are already PTI-backed winners that are defecting to PML(N).   Very likely a lot of $$$ was involved.   PML(N) will get its majority through hook or crook.

[jaichind]

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1156931-hafiz-naeem-quits-ps-129-seat-to-respect-pti-s-mandate

"Hafiz Naeem quits PS-129 seat to ‘respect PTI’s mandate’"

Islamic JI leader Hafiz Naeem ur Rehman who won a seat in the Sind assembly resigned his seat saying that the results were rigged and that the PTI candidate really won.   

[jaichind]

The noise out of PPP seems to be that either the
a) Vote for a PML(N) but stay in opposition so anti-incumbency does not rub off on them
OR
b) PML(N) and PPP share the PM spot through rotation

Clearly, PML(N) wants PPP to be part of the government with a PML(N) PM

PTI is weaker in Sindh than in Punjab so while PPP sees PTI as an enemy it is not on the same scale as how PML(N) sees things.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1757050355999760583

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/db6895dd-d174-46f9-82d3-508b1805d490

"FirstFT: Imran Khan’s rivals nominate Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister"

It seems PML(N) and PPP agree on former PM Shehbaz Sharif as the coalition government PM.

[jaichind]

Vote shares similar to 2018, PTI lost seats mostly due to consolidation of the anti-PTI vote
https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1758496918374641888

[jaichind]

Punjab assembly - small swing from PTI to PML(N) which is pretty impressive under the circumstances.

                Won             2018
PML(N)      137              129
PTI            116              123
PPP             10                 6
PML(Q)          7                 8
Ind.             22               30

Vote share for Punjab assembly
https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1758501379063037977

[jaichind]

PPP's Asif Ali Zardari, widower of Benazir Bhutto and former Prez and also known as "Mr. 10%", is the new Prez of Pakistan as part of the PML(N)-PPP deal.