Pakistan General Elections: Feb. 8

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                           
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     117                                                 116
PML(N)       58                                                  64
PPP            41                                                  43
Ind.           10
MQM            9 (Left, anti-PTI)
JUI-F           4 (Islamist, anti-PTI)
IPP              3 (PTI splinter)
BNP             3 (regionalist, Left)

[jaichind]

PML(N) seems to have canceled their victory party.

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                          
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     125                                                 116
PML(N)       52                                                  64
PPP            41                                                  43
Ind.           10
MQM            9 (Left, anti-PTI)

A lot of votes are in.  Now the question is can PTI win a majority of general seats?

[jaichind]

PML(N) leader and former PM Nawaz Sharif seems to be behind his PTI opponent

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     124                                                 116
PML(N)       54                                                  64
PPP            43                                                  43
Ind.             9
MQM            9 (Left, anti-PTI)

Not clear if PTI can get to a majority of general seats.  There is still some room for the establishment to impose a non-PTI government.  It will be a very difficult and unstable government but if they believe in keeping out Khan enough there are just enough seats to pull something like that off.

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     126                                                 116
PML(N)       51                                                  64
PPP            44                                                  43
MQM            9 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             8

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     132                                                 116
PML(N)       47                                                  64
PPP            46                                                  43
MQM            9 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             6

PTI leads getting close to a majority of general seats

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count (264 out of 266 with leads)

PTI continues to add to its majority
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     139                                                 116
PML(N)       46                                                  64
PPP            48                                                  43
Ind.             6
MQM            5 (Left, anti-PTI)

The PTI gain in seats relative to 2018 is extra impressive when most of the anti-PTI parties had a tactical alliance which means that PTI had to face a consolidation of the anti-PTI vote in most of the seats it was competitive.  PTI seems to have gained extra support beyond 2018 levels to overcome this consolidation of anti-PTI vote.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/pakistan-poll-results-delayed-as-imran-khan-s-party-claims-win

"Pakistan Poll Results Delayed as Imran Khan’s Party Claims Win in First Results"

Official results delayed

[jaichind]

Are you tabulating this by hand? I can only find a livestream presentation scrolling through each constituency.

For a while yes since for a long time they do not post overall numbers

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     118                                                 116
PML(N)       59                                                  64
PPP            47                                                  43
Ind.           10
MQM            7 (Left, anti-PTI)

Numbers now really look like a repeat of 2018

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count

PML(N) gaining at the expense of PTI.  To be fair, when compared to a few hours ago, there are cases where PTI has taken leads in seats there were behind.  It is a lot more PML(N) overtaking PTI seats.  Looking at where outstanding votes are I suspect both PTI and PP might lose a bit more ground.
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     113                                                 116
PML(N)       65                                                  64
PPP            47                                                  43
Ind.             9
MQM            7 (Left, anti-PTI)

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count

PTI continues to lose ground.  It will be an anti-PTI government led by PML(N) that will be installed although it will be a very difficult government to manage and I suspect there will be a snap election at some stage.
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     106                                                 116
PML(N)       67                                                  64
PPP            48                                                  43
MQM          15 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             9

[jaichind]

Official count. 

https://twitter.com/LokPoll/status/1755899170249134322

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count

PTI continues to lose ground.   
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     101                                                 116
PML(N)       71                                                  64
PPP            50                                                  43
MQM          15 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             8

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count

PTI continues to lose ground to PML(N).  If so I suspect the Punjab assembly will be close and even lean toward PML(N).  I suspect there will not be much movement from here.  At the unofficial level almost all the votes are counted in most seats.
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI       96                                                116
PML(N)       76                                                  64
PPP            50                                                  43
MQM          15 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             9

[jaichind]

Does this translate to a PML-N plurality when the reserved seats are doled out?

Very likely. They are doled out by region and will take each party's vote share into account in each region so I expect PML(N) will get almost all of them from Punjab since the Ind-PTI vote share there is very high but will not count toward reserved seats.

On the other hand, the optics are going to be very bad for PML(N) when the results pretty much show that PTI would have swept the polls had the "system" gone all out to stop PTI and even after all that PTI emerge as SLP in general seats.

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count

Looks like the seat count is stabilizing,  Also it seems in Punjab assembly PML(N) is SLP but not majority over Ind-PTI
 
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI       95                                                116
PML(N)       75                                                  64
PPP            51                                                  43
MQM          15 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             9

[jaichind]

https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/pakistan-election-results-when-pml-n-joined-hands-with-ppp-13710002.html

"Pakistan election results: When PML-N joined hands with PPP"

PTI already ruled out alliance with PML(N) or PPP. PML(N) says they will form a coalition government with PPP.

[jaichind]

MQM outperformed in Karachi beating out PTI.  It seems the anti-PTI vote consolidated around MQM to beat back PTI in Karachi.  Losing Karachi is a good part of the seats PTI lost relative to 2018

[jaichind]

Punjab assembly (279 out of 296)

PML(N)    132
Ind.         128 (Most but not all of them are Ind-PTI)
PPP            10

PML(N) headed toward SLP but not majority

[jaichind]

I like how your comments gradually went from this:

Turnout is 40%-45%.  No pro-PTI youth surge.  PML(N) should win and be able to form a government by buying off various smaller parties.

To this:

PML(N) seems to have canceled their victory party.

In an election entirely predictable if it where held free and fair, with a pasting of their current unpopular dictatorship.

Well, even with PTI outperformance the original narrative is the same: PML(N) buys off various parties and some PTI defectors to form government.  It will be very unstable and unpopular and I suspect a snap election will be needed at some stage which might set the stage for some Khan comeback.

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count

In unofficial terms I think we are getting close to  done
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI       96                                                116
PML(N)       75                                                  64
PPP            52                                                  43
MQM          15 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             9

[jaichind]

https://www.elections.gov.pk/national-assembly

ECP website

IND      
                           99                           

   
PML (N)

                           69                           

PPP      

                           52                           

MQM      

                           15

Note that IND are some real independents and most are PTI running as independents

[jaichind]

If you take what is on

https://www.elections.gov.pk/national-assembly

and add in unofficial results for the seats they are missing you get

                Win                                         Won in 2018
Ind-PTI       94                                                116
PML(N)       73                                                  64
PPP            53                                                  43
MQM          17 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             9

with 2 seats without unofficial results.  I think those seats will go to minor parties so the list above is likely to be the top 3 party results.