Mexican General Election, June 2, 2024

[jaichind]

Massive caller poll for 2024 Prez election

So far a consistently large MORENA lead and I am skeptical that PAN-PRI can even form an alliance. If PRI does not run a candidate and back PAN then PRi as a national party will be finished.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-city-mayor-step-down-pursue-historic-bid-presidency-2023-06-12/

"Mexico City mayor to step down to pursue historic bid for presidency"

Claudia Sheinbaum will seek MORENA nomination for 2024 Prez election
 

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/mexico-presidential-primary-morena-resignations-331d292e5a1e84dd962ebb94181b445c

"Mexico’s top diplomat resigns to enter primary race for 2024 presidential election"

Foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard resigns to seek MORENA nomination.    This is not the first time Marcelo Ebrard tried to run for Prez.   In 2012 he competed with AMLO to be the PRD Prez candidate and lost with AMLO going on to lose the general election in 2012.

So as expected for MORENA it will be Ebrard  vs Sheinbaum with most likely Sheinbaum  having the upper hand (AMLO is much more likely to back her from behind the scenes)

[jaichind]

Support by party in 2024 Prez election

[jaichind]

Forgive me for this newbie question, but what does the PRI even have to offer these days?

They are still viewed by older voters as the guardian of secular Mexican nationalism and keeping Mexico united as a state. Mexico's economic record between the 1950s and early 1980s were pretty good and PRI can be viewed as getting credit for that.

[jaichind]

https://www.elimparcial.com/mexico/-Luis-Donaldo-Colosio-Riojas-lidera-preferencias-en-la-carrera-presidencial-de-2024-por-MC-Reforma-20230526-0042.html

"Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas lidera preferencias en la carrera presidencial de 2024 por MC: Reforma"

The son of the assassinated 1994 PRI candidate Colosio might end up being the MC candidate for Prez in 2024

[jaichind]

Massive Call still has it neck-to-neck between MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PAN-PRI-PRD for the head of the CDMX election in 2024.



If PAN flips CDMX from MORENA but MORENA sweeps most Southern and Central rural states then the shift of MORENA from an insurgent party to a clientelist machine party in the image of PRI before the 1990s would become complete.

[jaichind]

Massive Caller poll for "primaries" for MORENA-PVEM-PT bloc and PAN-PRI-PRD bloc respectively

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/mexico-former-ruling-party-fracture-pri-03e08473732b0e38187a98b3c0125322

"Mexico’s old ruling party fractures following election loss"

PRI splits

On Monday, four leading PRI senators and dozens of supporters announced they are quitting the party. Senators led by former interior secretary Miguel Osorio Chong announced they will form a new group called “Congruence for Mexico.” The new group will not be able to compete in the 2024 presidential elections

I think this has to do with PRI continued alliance with PAN which means PRI will mostly not have a Prez candidate in 2024.  If true the PRI will sink into a second tier party and no longer be considered national.  This is very good news for PAN. 

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/mexico-former-ruling-party-fracture-pri-03e08473732b0e38187a98b3c0125322

"Mexico’s old ruling party fractures following election loss"

PRI splits

On Monday, four leading PRI senators and dozens of supporters announced they are quitting the party. Senators led by former interior secretary Miguel Osorio Chong announced they will form a new group called “Congruence for Mexico.” The new group will not be able to compete in the 2024 presidential elections

I think this has to do with PRI continued alliance with PAN which means PRI will mostly not have a Prez candidate in 2024.  If true the PRI will sink into a second tier party and no longer be considered national.  This is very good news for PAN. 

Eh, I took their resignations from the party to be about frustration with party leadership and how much the PRI has lost as far as governorships, legislatures, and mayors go. They came into 2018 with a majority of governorships in the country and are heading into 2024 with only 2. The Edomex loss seemed like the final nail in the coffin. Hell, in 8 states the PRI has 0-1 local deputies serving in state legislatures. They are continuing to bottom out.

You are right of course.  Sorry, I failed the express cause and effect.  The cause clearly is the decline of PRI.  The effect of that decline is the fact that PRI is unlikely to win the PAN-PRI-PRD "primary" and will not run a Prez candidate in 2024.

I do think that the PRI vote is not THAT much behind PAN.  The main problem is the PRI vote is correlated with the MORENA vote while the PAN is negatively correlated with the MORENA vote.  So where PRI is strong MORENA is also strong and overall stronger.  Where PAN is strong tends to be stronger tends to be places where MORENA is weaker.  As a result, PAN is able to translate its vote into seats while PRI are not.

[jaichind]

ALMO has been attacking PRD (really PAN) Senator Xóchitl Gálvez which has been pushing up her poll rating in the Opposition's "primary" support



This sets up an all-women battle in the general election against the ruling bloc's Sheinbaum who seems to be well ahead of Gálvez



Although it does seem if anyone can beat the ruling MORENA-PVEM-PT bloc in the general election it would be Gálvez

[jaichind]

The massive caller also has it to be Sheinbaum on the MORENA-PVEM-PT side and Gálvez on the PAN-PRI-PRD side



The Sheinbaum vs Gálvez matchup is much closer in the Massive Caller poll

[jaichind]

Latest El Financiero polls have the MORENA lead shrinking over time.

[jaichind]

Today is the day the MORENA bloc picks its candidate.  If their private poll matches all public polls it will be Sheinbaum over Ebrard setting up a women vs. women battle in the general election.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-06/mexico-s-ebrard-says-ruling-party-should-repeat-candidate-poll?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner

"Ebrard Throws Mexico Party’s Succession Plans into Question"

[jaichind]

They decided the presidential nominee with a POLL?

I believe South Korea also does nominations by polling.

It changes election cycles by election cycle but ROC tends to do polling as well but relative polling against likely general election opponents versus against each other for FPTP seats and polling against each other for multimember seats.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/mexico-election-xochitl-galvez-calls-for-pemex-private-investment

"Mexico Presidential Candidate Galvez Wants Sweeping Energy Reforms"

PAN-PRI-PRD candidate Galvez calls for a movement toward privatization of the energy sector

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/mexico-election-xochitl-galvez-calls-for-pemex-private-investment

"Mexico Presidential Candidate Galvez Wants Sweeping Energy Reforms"

PAN-PRI-PRD candidate Galvez calls for a movement toward privatization of the energy sector

He's got my vote!

She is a she and not a he

[jaichind]

https://www.theyucatantimes.com/2023/09/marcelo-ebrard-rules-out-independent-presidential-candidacy/

"Marcelo Ebrard rules out independent presidential candidacy"

There are rumors that he could instead run for MC.  That is unlikely but if that takes place it would be a boon for MC.

[jaichind]

Is MC polling well because it appeals to the "educated Progressive left" that doesn't like AMLO being PRI-lite?

MC is the personal political vehicle of Dante Delgado.   While it projects itself as Center-Left in some states where it is strong, like Compeche, Jalico, and Nuevo Leon, it is a de facto Center-Right force and eats into the PAN vote a lot of times.   I think their motto is "what ever it takes to get the votes which in turn gets us more state funding"

[jaichind]

2024 Governor election polls has a status quo election

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1748862174892523872

[jaichind]

The critical CDMX head election will also be held on the same day as the general election.  If there is going to be an anti-MORENA anti-incumbency swing it would be here. The  race is MORENA-PVEM-PT vs PAN-PRI-PRD vs MC.

Most polls have MORENA-PVEM-PT ahead of PAN-PRI-PRD by 10-15 points.  What is interesting here is how PRD collapsed and the anti-MORENA force is now really PAN which is heading the opposition alliance ticket.

The  MORENA-PVEM-PT candidate is Clara Brugada. Some info on her from 2009 and 2015

2009

Iztapalapa is just one of the 16 borroughs of Mexico City, but it is the largest and one of the poorest. It has nearly 2 million people, and is, in fact, one of the largest municipalities in the country. It is, traditionally, one of the PRD's major strongholds.

Iztapalapa used to be, more or less, the New Left territory. This time, though, PRD primary voters seemed to turn away from the faction.  On the election night the New Left "pre-candidate" for the post of the Iztapalapa delegado (a sort of "borrough president", though a bit more powerful), Silvia Oliva (herself, the wife of a former delegado and Congressman Rene Arce) was behind her lopezobradorista opponent, Carla Brugada. Oliva sued. The regional electoral chamber rejected her claims. Then, last week, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal overturned the lower chamber's ruling and ordered PRD to register Oliva as its candidate.

The local PRD leadership was, naturally, angry. To register her protest Alejandra Barrales took a "leave of absence" as the local party leader: the national party leaders would have to submit the court-ordered paperwork without her. But who really was rabid was Lopez Obrador. For a few days he tried negotiating, then he dropped a bomb: he would endorse the PT candidate, one Rafael (Juanito) Acosta.

But he would do it not so that Acosta could govern: in fact, he publicly ordered, in no uncertain terms, that, if elected Acosta resigns, so that Mayor Ebrard could appoint Brugada to the post.  Acosta did swear he would, but, incredibly, it turned out Ebrard was never consulted beforehand. In his usual (polite but ambiguous) manner Ebrard made that clear, before saying that, of course, he'd respect the wishes of Lopez in this case. In any case, he'd have an ample opportunity to renege, if he so likes, without making an open break: the appointment would have to be confirmed by the City Council. Of course, there is no question that the City Council will stay under the PRD control - it's quite another matter, though, for the United Left to have a majority on its own, or even w/ PT and Convergencia.

The official PRD leadership is now openly insensed. They've started to hint, that party members, who support candidates of other parties are supposed to be expelled from PRD (though they are saying, they'd only deal w/ it after July 5). Lopez says, he'll only go if forced to. His supporters are saying they'd all go with him, destroying the party.

Meanwhile, in Iztapalapa we have a true circus. It is too late to reprint the ballots, so Carla Brugada's name will stay. But all votes cast for Carla Brugada will be counted for Silvia Oliva. If you want Carla Brugada you are supposed to vote for Rafa Acosta (whom everyone knows, for some reason, as Juanito), who will resign in the hope that Carla Brugada would be nominated by the Mayor (and confirmed by the Council) instead. So, just to make clear: a vote for Carla is, really, a vote for Silvia. And to vote for Carla you should vote for Rafa, because Juanito promised Andres Manuel that he'd resign, so that Marcelo could nominate Carla (for an approval by a still unelected City Council). Everyone's with me?

2015

Iztapalapa - the largest borough of Mexico City. 1.8 mln people - bigger than many states. Morena heartland, if there is any. In fact, this is the one place where a Lopez Obrador candidate has run against PRD (and won) before. Shortly before the election day in 2009 an electoral tribunal ruled that the obradorista PRD candidate (Clara Brugada) was not properly nominated and that the candidacy will go to the runner-up in the PRD internal process. AMLO was enraged. He ordered his supporters to vote instead for the PT candidate - a semi-literate guy by the name of Rafael Acosta, but somehow known to the entire world as "Juanito".  In case of victory, Juanito was supposed to appoint Clara Brugada his second in command and then resign, leaving her acting delegada for the rest of the term. Well, Juanito won - but tried to renege and stay in the office. He was put under a lot of pressure, though, so his resistence did not last long, and Clara Brugada came to power.

Well, Morena is running this year... Clara Brugada, of course. This time there is no need of Juanito.

Reforma poll. Note that the top 5 candidates are all women

Clara Brugada (Morena) 41%
Dione Anguiano (PRD/PT/Panal) 28%
Adriana Torres (PRI/PVEM) 12%
Brisa Ortiz (PAN) 8%
Adriana Figueroa (PES) 6%
various males (MC, PH) 5%

[jaichind]

Completely in line with AMLO’s approval ratings in the 60s

It seems AMLO has successfully eaten up the old rural PRI machine vote outside of the Northern region.  This is why MORENA seems to be polling higher than even AMLO did back in 2018.

[jaichind]

As of 2023, MORENA controls states that make up 69.3% of all Mexico's Lower House seats.  The last time another party controlled so many states was PRI in 1996.  If MORENA can win the Prez position again this year then it is de facto the new PRI.