2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

TVBS poll on Blue +3 Taipei 4th district.  

In the race are DPP's maverick rising superstar and incumbent 高嘉瑜 (Kao Chia-Yu), KMT's former MP and current MLA 李彥秀(Lee Yen-Hsiu) and TSP's 吳欣岱(Wu Hsin-Tai) who was the runner up in the Taipei city assembly election last year and running as the Deep Green alternative to Kao.  All 3 candidates are women.

Kao has great appeal to light blue and light green voters and in 2016 in a 1-on-1 race was able to defeat KMT incumbent Lee 50.1 to 47.4 in this Blue +3 district despite Lee's clear personal strength in this district on the DPP Tsai urban wave in 2020 when Tsai won 53.6%.  Lee 2022 ran in the Taipei assembly and won a massive personal vote in this district which prepared her for a rematch with Kao to get her seat back.

Kao's appeal to the light blue and light green voters had made her an enemy of the Deep Green crowd who help push TSP's Wu to run as the Deep Green alternative.

TVBS poll has

KMT 李彥秀(Lee Yen-Hsiu)     44
DPP 高嘉瑜 (Kao Chia-yu)      27
TSP 吳欣岱(Wu Hsin-Tai)        13

The party breakdown is interesting
          
                                                    DPP          KMT        TPP       NPP       TSP        Ind       Minor
                                                   (29%)       (25%)    (15%)     (5%)     (2%)    (19%)    (6%)
KMT 李彥秀(Lee Yen-Hsiu)     44       16            90           36         16         31         39         40
DPP 高嘉瑜 (Kao Chia-yu)      27       38             6           46          56          4         22         16
TSP 吳欣岱(Wu Hsin-Tai)        13      29              0            7           11        57        10            9

Note how Kao has greater support from light blue TPP and light green NPP than with the DPP base.  Lee outperforms across the board given her personal roots in this district.

The same poll for Prez has

DPP Lai      32
TPP Ko       26
KMT Hou    26

Given this district is Blue +3 this would imply that all ROC should be something like

DPP Lai      35
TPP Ko       25
KMT Hou    24

Which would be a very solid result for DPP Lai.

A breakdown of MP votes by Prez support would be

                                                   DPP Lai      TPP Ko      KMT Hou     Undecided
                                                     (32%)       (26%)        (26%)         (16%)
KMT 李彥秀(Lee Yen-Hsiu)     44         16             37             88               41
DPP 高嘉瑜 (Kao Chia-yu)      27        36             43               6               17
TSP 吳欣岱(Wu Hsin-Tai)        13        34              5                4                2
Undecided                            15       15             15               2               40

Again, the DPP Lai vote is evenly split between DPP Kao and TSP Wu sounds like a Kao disaster and exactly what the Deep Green had in mind when they ran TSP Wu in the race to "get" Kao.

Note that only 2% of undecided are going for Deep Green TSP Wu means that most of the undecided clearly lean Blue and even if there are lean Green voters there they are clearly light green.  That data would give DPP Lai some pause since this means his ROC-wide implied 35 could be close to his cap in this race.

On the flip side, only 2% of KMT Hou supporters are undecided which means KMT Lee is most likely close to her cap as well.

One last point.  TSP's Wu can win by losing.  If TSP Wu's run does split the Pan-Green vote and let KMT Lee back in then KMT Lee would give up her Taipei assembly seat.  As the best runner-up in the 2022 assembly election in this district then TSP Wu would actually become the next MLA in this district once KMT Lee wins and takes her MP spot back.

[jaichind]

By the way he is talking TPP, Ko seems to be warming up to talks with KMT to cooperate against the DPP in the upcoming election.  I really doubt this will go anywhere.  Given Ko's personality and 2024 being his best chance of becoming Prez I do not see why he will back down.  For KMT's survival, I do not know why the KMT will back down.  I suspect any talks will be mainly at the legislative level and for the Prez race it will be everyone for themselves even though that mostly means DPP Lai wins.

[jaichind]

The latest TVBS poll has a shift toward DPP Lai away from TPP Ko which is not unexpected given the media attention to his visit to the USA.  The fact that he is being treated "well" by the Washington officials implies that they "endorse" DPP Lai as a non-trouble maker when it comes to PRC-ROC relations.  This will help Lai consolidate some of the light Green votes.

What is a surprise is that KMT Hou also lost ground since July.

DPP Lai    37(+4)
TPP Ko     28(-4)
KMT Hou  22(-3)

This poll sample does seem to be more green-leaning.  By party ID with the shift from July

DPP    28 (+2)
KMT    21(-4)
TPP     16 (--)
NPP      4 (--)
TSP      2 (-1)
Ind.    21 (+4)
Others  9 (-1)

The decline of KMT party ID could be part of the shift away from KMT Hou or it is a more pro-Green sample.  I guess we will find out next TVBS poll where I do expect some of the DPP Lai surge to wear off.

In terms of favorable/unfavorable it is
DPP Lai    41/40
TPP Ko     40/42
KMT Hou  35/41

which means all 3 are capable of being in the 30%+ vote share range but clearly only 2 can make it there.  This poll is the best from DPP Lai's point of view since the floor for KMT Hou is higher than TPP Ko so KMT Hou is still be bigger danger to DPP Lai in terms of potential.

Overall DPP Lai's chances are looking good are getting better.

[jaichind]

What do you think Hou can do to win the election?

Mostly out of his control. 

First, Guo must not run.  Right now there is a reasonable shot that Guo might run.  The case for Guo to run would be that 2024 is the last year he can reasonably run so even if the chances of him winning are tiny he might as well try.

Second TPP Ko has to implode in some way.  The best time would be sometime in September when KMT Hou registers as the KMT candidate cutting off any chances of Guo taking his place.  This might lead to a surge of pan-Blue undecideds toward KMT Hou and if TPP Ko gets hit with something around the same time it would be the best-case scenario for KMT Hou.

After that KMT Hou has to hope to get within striking distance with DPP Lai by Nov in which case he can then hope for tactical voting to get him across the finishing line in Jan.

I rate all these things taking place at around 5%-10% shot.  All of these in theory are quite possible for for all of them to take place seems fairly remote.

[jaichind]

Guo will need to get the requisite number of signatures and then register. Assuming this is not a move to force some sort of grand alliance with TPP Ko or KMT Hou, then DPP Lai's chances just went from 80% to 99%.

[jaichind]

One of the main planks of Guo's campaign will be "let's make sure that ROC will never get turned into the diaster that Ukraine is today"

[jaichind]

Formosa poll (3- way and 4- way)

Some info first.  Formosa is run by a bunch of DPP renegades but has a track record of a heavy Green lean.  It is fairly accurate in DPP wave elections (like 2016 and 2020) but is way off by erratic levels when it is not a Green wave.

This is in contrast to TvBS and Ettoday who have a Blue and Green lean but they hold those consistent leans even in very different election cycles.  UDN has a Blue lean but is more erratic and I would put them at a tier below TvBS and Ettoday.

Anyway, the latest Formosa numbers

3-way
DPP Lai             38.8
TPP Ko              20.8
KMT Hou           18.7

4-way
DPP Lai             37.6
TPP Ko              17.5
KMT Hou           17.4
pro-KMT Guo     10.5

Overall I would cut 4%-5% from DPP Lai and redistribute them to the other 3 candidates.   Still, an insurmountable DPP Lai leads with very little hope of massive tactical voting to beat DPP Lai.  

Like I guessed, Guo hurts TPP Ko more than KMT Hou

If before Guo entered the race I would put the odds at

DPP Lai          80%
TPP Ko           12%
KMT Hou         8%

Now I would put it at

DPP Lai        99%
TPP Ko           0%
KMT Hou        1%
pro-KMT Guo  0%

Guo running removes any chance of TPP Ko winning while if there is anyone other than DPP Lai that can win it would be KMT Hou

[jaichind]

Latest Newtalk 4-way poll.  Newtalk historically has a green lean and has been erratic.    This cycle they seem to have a Guo lean.  Change is from Newtalk poll 2 weeks ago

DPP Lai             33.33 (+2.87)
TPP Ko              20.97 (-3.74)
pro-KMT Guo     20.01 (+2.68)
KMT Hou           18.14 (+1.22)



Party Support

DPP                 30.78 (+2.37)
KMT                 27.11 (-2.23)
TPP                  19.58 (-1.41)
NPP                   1.33 (-0.11)
TSP                   1.29 (-0.08)
PFP                   0.36 (-0.33)     

Like the other polls, Guo announcing mostly means Guo takes votes from TPP Ko.  DPP Lai's rise seems more about the last sample two weeks ago being too Blue with KMT support above DPP even with TPP at 21% which makes no sense.  This poll's party support beings to make more sense.

[jaichind]

My guess right now of the results will be assuming Guo does register and does not drop out to back KMT Hou or TPP Ko

DPP Lai          37
KMT Hou        30
TPP Ko           25
pro-KMT Guo    8

Guo will surge for a while eating into TPP Ko's support.  That will trigger a shift of the KMT-TPP tactical vote toward KMT Hou.  Then Guo deflates losing support to both KMT Hou and TPP Ko and then falls apart at the end of the election.

[jaichind]

With DPP Lai's election now looking all but certain the biggest winner out of all this, besides DPP Lai, of course, would be KMT mayor of Taipei Chiang. 

With DPP in charge at the center, the 2026 local election will be another KMT win with Chiang leading the KMT effort and getting credit for the win.  Chiang has to avoid the trap of running for Prez in 2028 since DPP Lai is likely to win re-election.  As long as he can find someone else to run in 2028 then everything is set for Chiang to lead the KMT to victory as the Prez candidate in 2032.  If KMT Hou had won in 2024 then that cut off the route for Chiang to be Prez since the DPP would win in 2032 and by 2040 Chiang would be past his prime to run.  Chiang's best shot is 2032 and now the road is clear for him to win in 2032.

[jaichind]

Ettoday 4-way poll

DPP Lai's surge from his trip to the USA is still present.  Guo announcing that he will run led to a surge that seems to have come at the expense of KMT Hou.  Of course, KMT Hou, unlike other polls, was ahead of TPP Ko in this poll during Aug.

DPP Lai          35.3
KMT Hou        21.4
TPP Ko           17.6
pro-KMT Guo  17.2




Cross tabs
DPP Lai is stronger with women which is unusual as a DPP candidate.  Looking at party ID it is clear the undecided lean Blue.  DPP Lai most likely is close to his cap in this poll and most of the rest of the vote will go to the 3 pan-Blue candidates.





For reference, their 3-way poll clearly shows Guo hurting TPP Ko the most

DPP Lai       37.6
TPP Ko        24.3
KMT Hou     24.2

[jaichind]

The latest DPP renegade-run Formosa Times 4-way poll has the DPP Lai surge from his trip to USA clearly receding.  The Formosa Times poll is lean-heavy Green and erratic and should be read as what the result would be if it was a DPP wave.

The difference is the change from 5 days ago at the peak of DPP Lai's surge in the poll

DPP Lai          35.3 (-4.8 )
KMT Hou        17.8 (+2.2)
TPP Ko           17.1 (+0.5)
pro-KMT Guo  11.6 (-0.4)

DPP Lai's numbers mostly seem to match Ettoday's polls with some underestimate of the pan-Blue candidates relative to Ettoday.  Formosa poll has a heavy Green lean while Ettoday has a small Green lean.  I will be curious to see what the next TVBS poll would look like a few weeks from now.

[jaichind]

"Leaked" Guo internals have KMT Hou collapsing at the Guo announcement that he will run and a surge of undecides (which I assume are pan-Blue voters deciding between KMT Hou, TPP Ko, and Guo.)  It also shows the DPP Lai's surge subsiding just like other polls.

DPP Lai         29.3
TPP Ko          22.6
KMT Hou       14.2
pro-KMT Guo 13.4

Frankly, this poll seems like an advertisement for TPP Ko.



This "leak" shows that the Guo strategy is to take down KMT Hou first and then go after TPP Ko.  I do not think this will work.  The TPP Ko vote is softer and Guo is better off trying to claw support away from TPP Ko first.

[jaichind]

Looking at the crosstabs on the Ettoday poll or 3-way vs. 4- way we can derive the following facts:

1) Guo draws from undecides are lean women, older and independent/lean Blue
2) Guo draws from TPP Ko are lean women, middle age and independent/lean Blue
3) Guo takes some from pan-Greens but not that much but where he does it seems to lean middle age

This sort of shows that in a 3-way race, DPP Lai is favored but not a done deal since the undecides heavily lean Blue.  In a 4 way race, the undecides still seem lean blue but less so with DPP Lai with a bigger lead over the 2nd place overall.  So in a 4-way race, it is a done deal that it is DPP Lai.

[jaichind]

KMT mayor of Taipei Chiang was in Shanghai for 4 days for the annual Taipei-Shanghai forum.  TPP Ko, when he was mayor, put a lot of focus on this annual event which was one of the main reasons he broke with DPP since doing so was part of his shift from Deep Green to light Green to light Blue.

Chiang being the great-grandson of Chiang Kai-Shek as well as being the mayor of Taipei was the main reason he was mobbed by Shanghai crowds.  Here he invited the Shanghai crowds following him around to visit Taipei.
https://twitter.com/roclove2020/status/1696953354168283452

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS poll has which is now 4-way

DPP Lai               30 (-7)
TPP Ko                23 (-5)
KMT Hou             19 (-3)
pro-KMT Guo       14 (new)



I will have to review the crosstabs when it comes out.  I am pretty sure Guo's running did NOT lead to a 7-point fall in DPP Lai support.  DPP Lai being -7 is more about the glow of DPP Lai's trip to the USA fading PLUS a very green sample in the late August poll.  Again it will be clearer once the cross tabs come out.

[jaichind]

Looking at the crosstabs of the TBVS polls shows that the late August poll most likely did have an unusually green sample most of which has been normalized in the early Sept poll.

                     DPP      KMT        TPP
Late July         26         25         16
Late Aug         28         21         16
Early Sept       28         24         16

The early Sept poll most likely still has a higher Green tilt than Late July but it has normalized somewhat from the Late Aug sample.  From this we can conclude DPP Lai did NOT fall 7% from Late Aug to Early Sept but more like 5% which is mostly about the DPP Lai visit to USA media coverage wearing off plus a tiny loss due to Guo getting into the race.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko gave an interview on a Deep Blue media outlet held by a former KMT Deep Blue MP who has been advocating for a KMT-TPP alliance to take on DPP.  So in many ways, TPP Ko is on friendly territory but will spin his views to appeal to the Deep Blue vote.

TPP Ko said
a) His education and upbringing are very Chinese and you can never take "the China" out of Taiwan.  He showed off his knowledge of classical Chinese poetry in Hoklo which rhymes better than Mandarin as Hoklo is an ancient Chinese dialect.
b)  He rules out Independence and Unification.  When pushed on why he rules out unification in the long run he backtracked a bit and said that the PRC system could evolve in the future when unification can be discussed but that seems a far way off.
c) He projected a negative experience on his trip to the USA.  He said that USA officials had an irrational obsession with trying to take down the PRC.  He said that he said to their face "I agree with your value system but if we believe in our common value system why cannot we let that value system win on its own merits on the PRC versus trying to push a confrontation now'  He said that the USA officials became much more cool on him after he pushed back in that way.
d) He indicated that Ukraine is a disaster and however the war turns out it will be destroyed for the next 2-3 generations.  He said that ROC must avoid that fate.
e) When asked if he was pro-USA he said of course.  But then made a joke with his hand gesture suggesting that if he was not pro-USA he might be "taken out."

If you filter out the need for a Deep Blue spin TPP Ko's position is pretty much a pro-USA light blue that wants to work toward evolution of the PRC system to resolve the PRC-ROC conflict.

[jaichind]

Guo steps down from the board of Foxconn, the company he founded almost 50 years ago.  It seems his running is not a ruse and he is going all out to run.  Very good news for DPP Lai.

[jaichind]

Guo steps down from the board of Foxconn, the company he founded almost 50 years ago.  It seems his running is not a ruse and he is going all out to run.  Very good news for DPP Lai.

So would you rule out any chance for a grand alliance? This really seems like such a weird situation where everyone but Lai knows they can’t win.

I mostly would.  The people involved have too much ego.  Also, game theory tells them that 2024 should be a DPP defeat so all 3 pan-Blue candidates which are all polling above 10% are thinking "if only I hold on I will win the game of chicken and the other 1 or 2 pan-Blue candidates will withdraw for me to win"  Of course that very dynamic and thinking will mean no one wins the game of chicken.

The one the most likely to drop out might be TPP Ko.  I think deep down he knows he will most likely not win and he is really in it to push up the TPP PR vote.  If he can get some sort of deal with the KMT I think he might take it.  The main problem is the KMT legislative candidates might not be OK with stepping aside in a few seats for TPP  and might rebel and the fact that TPP Ko polls above KMT Hou in some polls and was ahead of DPP Lai a month or two ago might make him think that he does have a shot.

[jaichind]

Of course, the fact that there are 3 pan-Blue candidates at the Prez level is a boom for KMT MP candidates in districts where TPP does not have anyone viable running, which is most of them.  The KMT MP candidates de facto get support from all 3 pan-Blue candidates at the ground level and form a mega anti-DPP grand alliance.  If this remains the dynamic the chances of a DPP majority in the legislative elections is zero and greater than a 50/50 shot of the KMT emerge as SLP.

[jaichind]

The latest Ettoday poll has KMT Hou making gains both in 3-way and 4-way matchups mostly due to gains in the pro-KMT and pro-Blue youth vote

The dynamic is the same.  In a 3-way matchup, the KMT Hou surge is meaningful as it could turn into a threat to DPP Lai. In a 4-way matchup, the gap continues to be too big and KMT Hou will run out of non-core TPP Ko and pro-KMT Guo voters to come over to him to catchup with DPP Lai.

3-way





4-way

[jaichind]

TVBS legislative poll on New Taipei 12th district.  This is a Blue+3 district that DPP Tsai urban wave carried with ease in 2016 and 2020.  In 2016 DPP backed the NPP Chairperson who won on DPP Tsai's coattails and in 2020 after the DPP-NPP split a young first-time DPP candidate won despite NPP splitting the vote again on the DPP Tsai's urban wave coattails.

2016
NPP       51.5% (Chairperson of NPP) (backed by DPP)
KMT       43.7% (incumbent)
FHL          3.1% (social conservative, pro-KMT)
PPUP        1.6% (light blue)

2020
DPP       45.4% (daughter of DPP MP from the early 2000s, has local roots)
KMT       43.9% (ex-MP from Taipei City so does not have local roots even if a quality candidate)
NPP         7.3%
SFP          1.6% (social conservative, pro-KMT)

The first-time DPP MP who is the youngest in the ROC Legislature.  Her father was a DPP MP back in the early 2000s who is now embroiled in some scandals with his involvement in green energy which includes some unexplained dealings with the PRC.  It is not unexpected for the DPP incumbent not to poll well but the poll shows a blowout victory for KMT 47-31



The poll has the DPP MP losing the youth vote badly due to the allegations being made against her former DPP MP father.   The KMT and TPP vote has mostly consolidated around the KMT challenger.

The poll for Prez is

DPP Lai          29
KMT Hou        24
TPP Ko           16
pro-KMT Guo  11

Given that this is a Blue+3 district a reasonable ROC extrapolation of the Prez race would be

DPP Lai         32
KMT Hou       23
TPP Ko          15
pro-KMT Guo 10

The undecided in the Prez race area breaking for the KMT challenger over the DPP incumbent 25-16 which would imply that the undecided lean Blue but not but a huge margin.  

This implied result seems consistent with the Ettoday poll.  The slight good news for KMT Hou is that with both TPP Ko and pro-KMT Guo both below 20% one of them could end up dropping out and potentially support KMT Hou.  If that were to take place then the Prez election could become competitive.  Unless that happens it seems almost certain that DPP Lai will win.

Back to the legislative part of the poll.  Out of the 21% that are undecided the Prez part of the poll seems to be

DPP Lai          20
KMT Hou          6
TPP Ko           16
pro-KMT Guo    7

Which would imply sort of a slight light blue lean to the undecided.  If so the undecided will at best break evenly between the DPP incumbent and KMT challenger which would mean a landslide defeat for the DPP incumbent.

The DPP incumbent 賴品妤(Lai Pin-yu) was 28 when she was elected in 2020 and was considered a rising star in the DPP.  In practice, she has not done much since she entered the legislature.  One of the reasons seems to be that she was spending a lot of time with her boyfriend who was a 苗栗(Miaoli County) NPP MLA elected in 2018 and re-elected as a pro-DPP independent in 2022.  He will run as a pro-DPP independent in 苗栗(Miaoli County) 2nd district in 2024.  This is a Blue +17 district so he has zero chance of winning.  Well, perhaps in her defeat and her boyfriend's defeat in 2024, they can actually get married.  If she were to win re-election I doubt she can get married and for sure not have any children until 2028 when she will be 36 while the clock is ticking.  It is up to her but from my view she can win in her personal life by losing her re-election.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko is running into problems in his own backyard mostly in the form of greater troubles for the TPP mayor of 新竹市(Hsinchu City) 高虹安 (Ann Kao).  Most of her troubles seem to relate to her boyfriend.  First, there is this ongoing scandal/investigation of how her boyfriend falsely claimed overtime pay as a Legislative MP aide for 高虹安 (Ann Kao) when she was a TPP MP.  Now disgruntled 新竹市(Hsinchu City) municipal officials are complaining that TPP mayor 高虹安 (Ann Kao)'s boyfriend has outsized influence over city government affairs.  Understand that a lot of these "disgruntled" officials most likely are leftovers of the DPP administration from 2014-2022 and might be on their way out for partisan reasons and are throwing out such "dirt" to get revenge.  None of this says the accusations are not true.

There are now talks that TPP might suspend 高虹安 (Ann Kao) from TPP although TPP's high command is denying it.

Speaking of 新竹市(Hsinchu City)  it seems TPP might run TPP Ko's sister to run for MP spot here.

In 2020 the KMT won in a 3-way race

KMT     37.0
DPP     31.8
NPP     28.6
CPA      2.0 (light blue KMT splinter, de facto merged back into KMT)

This time around KMT incumbent will face DPP NPP and now also TPP.   新竹市(Hsinchu City) is very youth heavy which is a weakness for KMT.   Having both NPP and TPP run with both having youth appeal will split the youth vote while KMT will beat the DPP with the elderly vote.  If NPP and TPP formed an alliance they could pose a threat to KMT by sweeping the youth vote while the KMT and DPP split the elderly vote.  As it is in a 4- way race it seems the KMT incumbant will win and most likely with a good margin.

[jaichind]

KMT Hou plans to visit the USA in a few days. He plans to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.  Not clear if they will see him.