2023 Thailand general election - May 14th

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP        99
PT          60
BJT         34
DP          16
PPP         18
UTN        10
CP            7

As more rural votes start to come in PT and BJT make gains.  The MFP winning margins in Bangkok are massive

[jaichind]

Prayut Chan-o-cha's UTN is only ahead in 12 seats and less than PPP and DP.  This is embarrassing.  I cannot see how he can make a claim to be a PM even if the pro-military bloc overperforms. 

It seems BJT's Anutin Charnvirakul and current DPM is a good candidate to be next PM if the pro-military bloc does well enough in some sort of power-sharing with PT

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP        99
PT          60
BJT         34
DP          16
PPP         18
UTN        10
CP            7

As more rural votes start to come in PT and BJT make gains.  The MFP winning margins in Bangkok are massive

Is it possible there are a lot of unemployed or under-employed youth in Bangkok impacting these results?

It seems PT is doing way worse than polling suggested in Bangkok so this seems more about the anti-military bloc vote deciding to consolidate around MFP there.  Really bad news for PT in other urban and suburban areas elsewhere.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP        99
PT          70
BJT         38
PPP         20
DP          17
UTN        16
CP            8

UTN's vote seems to be spread all over Thailand but not concentrated.  BJT  PPP DP vote are concentrated which help them wins seats.    MFP seat lead seems to be stagnating around 100 as the outstanding seats become more rural in nature.

[jaichind]

I created a chart of 2020 and 2021 GDP growth numbers relative to what was expected before COVID-19 hit across all significant economies.  Thailand was at the bottom.  The only economies that performed worse relative to expected were  India, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP      102
PT          72
BJT         51
PPP         25
UTN        18
DP          17
CP            8

BJT continues to surge.  I wondering if what is taking place in rural seats is that the MFP surge is splitting the anti-military vote and letting in parties like BJT and other pro-military parties over PT.

[jaichind]

Some of the constituency/list vote splits does not make sense to me, for example there are several seats in Buriram that votes for Bhumjaithai for the constituency, while the MFP is very strong on the list.

Do they count the constituency/list separately?

Yes, it is a separate ballot for PR.  This is the first time they are doing it this way.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP      106
PT          92
BJT         67
PPP         34
UTN        21
DP          17
CP            9

PT and BJP got more boosts in terms of seats as more rural areas starts reporting.

On the PR side, It is MFP at 42 and PT at 25.  The anti-military vote is 67 out of 100 on the PR section so far.

[jaichind]

So far it seems that MFP is the urban anti-military party while PT is the rural anti-military party.  On the other side, it seems UTN is the urban pro-military party while BJT is the rural pro-military party.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

           District    PR     Total   
MFP      116        42      158
PT          97        25      122
BJT         72          2       74
PPP         33          1       34
UTN        24        16       40
DP          18          3       21
CP          10           1      11

I suspect the PR vote count has a very urban lean

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

           District    PR     Total  
MFP      114        40      154
PT          96        28      124
BJT         77          2       81
PPP         31          1       32
UTN        26        15       41
DP          21          3       24
CP          10          0       10

Looks like PT is en route to losing district seats relative to 2019.  MFP and BJT surge are huge.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

           District    PR     Total 
MFP      116        39      155
PT        103        29      132
BJT         75          2       77
PPP         30          1       31
UTN        25        14       39
DP          20          3       23
CP          10          0       10

A small movement toward PT.  I am still confused about the PR seats.  Seems very urban-biased to make sense.

[jaichind]

Faster results here, directly from the EC.
https://election2566.thestandard.co/

Looks like https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result just changed their results to mostly match this site.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

           District    PR     Total
PT         99         32      131
MFP       93         34      127
BJT         62          4       66
PPP         37          2       39
UTN        26        13       39
DP          20          3       23
CP            8          1         9

PT getting close to MFP on PR and takes lead overall

[jaichind]

It seems all the media sites are connecting their results to the election commission site results

https://www.ectreport.com/overview

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

           District    PR     Total
PT         107        31      138
MFP        88         35      123
BJT         60          4       64
PPP         37          2       39
UTN        27        13       40
DP          21          3       24
CP            8          1         9

PT makes more gains.  MFP district leads falling as more votes (I guess more rural) comes in

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

I did a manual calculation of vote share at district and PR level

           District    PR     Total         District vote share      PR vote share
MFP       115        36      151                25.7%                    37.6%
PT         114        31      145                31.5%                    32.3%
BJT         63          4       67                 18.0%                      3.6%
PPP         33          2       35                   9.4%                      1.5%
UTN        21        13       34                    5.7%                   13.1%
DP          20          3       23                    4.1%                     2.6%
CP            7          1         8                    3.0%                     0.8%

Note that the PR vote has counted around 12 million votes while the district vote has only counted around 6 million votes.  Even allowing for UTN PR voters tactical voting there must me massive MFP and PT vote splitting for pro-military candidate at the district vote OR the PR vote count will move toward pro-military parties OR the district seat count will move toward anti-military parties.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

I did a manual calculation of vote share at the district and PR level

           District    PR     Total         District vote share      PR vote share
MFP       115        36      151                25.9%                    36.2%
PT         116        31      147                32.1%                    31.1%
BJT         63          4       67                 17.7%                      3.5%
PPP         32          2       34                   9.0%                      1.5%
UTN        19        13       32                    5.1%                   12.6%
DP          20          3       23                    4.0%                     2.5%
CP            9          1       10                    3.3%                     0.7%

PR counted: ~14 million
District counted: ~7 million

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

I did a manual calculation of vote share at the district and PR level

           District    PR     Total         District vote share      PR vote share
MFP       112        37      149                27.9%                    37.3%
PT         113        30      143                30.5%                    30.5%
BJT         64          3       67                 17.1%                      3.2%
PPP         39          2       41                   9.4%                      1.5%
UTN        24        12       36                    5.4%                   12.3%
DP          21          3       24                    4.4%                     2.4%
CP            9          1       10                    2.6%                     0.6%

PR counted: ~23 million
District counted: ~11 million

The result gap between the district and PR grows wider.  Not sure how it will resolve itself.  I figure around 40 million votes got cast so the PR number seems more and more relevant and unlikely to change.

[jaichind]

Enough of the PR vote has come in such that even if there is an urban bias in the count MFP beat PT in the PR vote.  Amazing.

[jaichind]

Seems like a pretty clear PT-MFP coalition?

They will need 375 seats out of 500 for that which they will clearly not get since the 250 pro-military senators get to vote for PM as well.

To be viable the new government must have 375 lower house MPs OR 250 lower MPs plus the support of the 250 senators.   

A grand coalition of PT and various pro-military parties (BJT, PPP UTN) is the most likely outcome.   BJT's leader and current DPM Anutin Charnvirakul seems to have a good path to become PM.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

I did a manual calculation of vote share at the district and PR level

           District    PR     Total         District vote share      PR vote share
MFP       113        38      151                29.1%                    37.7%
PT         112        30      142                29.6%                    30.0%
BJT         65          3       68                 16.6%                      3.1%
PPP         40          2       42                   9.6%                      1.4%
UTN        24        12       36                    5.2%                   12.5%
DP          21          3       24                    4.4%                     2.4%
PP            7          2         9                    1.5%                     1.9%
CP            8          1         9                    2.2%                     0.5%

PR counted: ~26 million
District counted: ~12 million

MFP vote share rising and PT vote share falling in both categories.  PT falling in district vote means it loses ground to pro-military parties in rural areas.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

I did a manual calculation of vote share at the district and PR level

           District    PR     Total         District vote share      PR vote share
MFP       114        38      152                28.6%                    37.9%
PT         112        30      142                29.3%                    29.8%
BJT         65          3       68                 16.9%                      3.1%
PPP         40          1       41                   9.5%                      1.5%
UTN        25        13       38                    5.4%                   12.5%
DP          20          3       23                    4.3%                     2.5%
CP            9          1       10                    2.5%                     0.5%
PP            7          2         9                    1.5%                     1.9%


PR counted: ~28 million
District counted: ~12 million

District votes counted slows down to a trickle even though there is a massive number of them outstanding.

[jaichind]

My question is why is the military bloc so divided? Surely given they + the monarchy have shared overriding interest in staying in power you'd think it would be relatively easy to hash out some kind of unified pact.

Also in regards to the clergy: are the Buddhist leadership/monastic types in the military's pocket? Is there religious division?

Looking at the district results so far this might be a feature and not a bug.  The rules for PR seat allocation actually benefit small parties so the pro-military bloc is better off running several PR lists.  And it seems for the district votes the pro-military vote seems to be doing a good job consolidating around a pro-military candidate where as PT and MFP seem to be splitting the anti-military vote down the middle in many districts.  Note that there are large number of district vote outstanding so this story might change as more votes come in.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

I did a manual calculation of vote share at the district and PR level

           District    PR     Total         District vote share      PR vote share
MFP       113        38      151                29.3%                    38.4%
PT         112        29      141                28.8%                    29.3%
BJT         67          3       70                 17.0%                      3.1%
PPP         39          1       40                   8.9%                      1.4%
UTN        23        13       36                    5.1%                   12.9%
DP          22          3       25                    5.1%                     2.5%
CP            9          1       10                    2.5%                     0.5%
PP            7          2         9                    1.3%                     1.6%


PR counted: ~35 million
District counted: ~15 million

I think PR count is close to being down.  Still tons of district votes to come.